I Overview
Pakistan:
- Post-poll Governance Set up
- Economy
- Terrorism- Chinese Targets Attacked
- Judges Complain of Pressure from “agencies”
- Unrest in ‘Gilgit-Baltistan’
- Pakistan-USA
- Pakistan-India
Afghanistan:
- UN Quarterly Report on Afghanistan
- Human Rights Situation
- Doha Meeting of Special Representatives
- Afghanistan-Pakistan
- Afghanistan-India
- Afghanistan-USA
II Developments in Pakistan
Post-poll Governance Set up
Following the February 8 elections in Pakistan, the government led by PML(N) leader Shehbaz Sharif was formed at the federal level in the midst of widespread allegations of poll rigging. The allegations were levelled not only by PTI, but also some other parties and centred around the role of the army in influencing the polls outcome. Reports in the Pakistani media gave credence to them.
The new government is a coalition more or less with the same composition as Shehbaz’s government immediately preceding the elections with one major difference. Unlike its participation in the previous government, PPP has chosen to support the new government from outside in return for the post of President for Asif Ali Zardari (he has already been elected to that office a second time) and some other constitutional posts. Shehbaz has been joined by a 19-member cabinet.
The polls produced a polarised verdict in the provinces, as following the 2013 and 2018 elections. The verdict in Sindh and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa was largely in favour of PPP and PTI respectively. In Punjab, it was split between PML(N) and PTI and in Balochistan, it was a hotchpotch of parties. PML(N) has formed the government in Punjab, PPP in Sindh and PTI in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Balochistan has a coalition headed by Sarfraz Bugti of PPP, supported by PML(N) and some smaller parties.
Top PTI leaders, Imran Khan and Shah Mahmood Qureshi remain incarcerated. The party continues to be under pressure from the army led establishment to maintain good behaviour vis a vis the army leadership. Prolonged curbs have been maintained on the social media to prevent anti-establishment propaganda. It would be recalled that since PTI had been deprived of its election symbol by the Election Commission of Pakistan in the run up to the elections, its candidates had contested as independents. Subsequently, they joined the largely unknown political formation, Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) en masse to get a party tag and seek seats of women and minorities in the federal and provincial assemblies that are allotted in proportion to the elected seats of various parties. However, the Election Commission has denied them their share of these seats, allotting them instead to the other parties- PML(N) and PPP being the main beneficiaries. The matter remains sub-judice.
Running the unwieldy coalition will be an uphill task for Shehbaz Sharif. He will remain under pressure from three quarters: the army, PPP and last but not the least his brother, Nawaz Sharif, who will continue to wield considerable influence on governance. Telltale signs of such pressures have already emerged in constitution of the cabinet and cabinet committees. These are pointers towards a weak and unstable government, dependant on the support of the army, especially in taking the unpopular decisions that will be needed to stabilise the economy.
Economy
The 9-month, $3billion facility that the last Shehbaz Sharif government had managed to get from the IMF in June 2023 had prevented a default on Pakistan’s external obligations. However, Pakistan’s economic woes are far from over, notably its heavy external liabilities over the next few years. With the above facility approaching its end, it is clear that the top priority of the government would be to enter into a longer term arrangement with the Fund. This would also be essential to deblock financing from other international partners and commercial sources. The Prime Minister spoke of this priority while presiding over the meeting of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), the top economic policy making body, which has the Chief of Army Staff as a member. It was reported in late March that the IMF and Pakistan had reached a staff level agreement for release of the last tranche of $1.1 billion out of the above mentioned 9-month facility subject to the approval of the Fund’s Executive Board, which is yet to come.
In his first formal interaction with the media after taking over, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, an ex-banker, who is reported to be the choice of the army, signalled continuation of the stabilisation policies adopted under the above mentioned $3 billion facility. He also expressed the intention of the government to start discussions with the IMF for a new, larger and longer IMF programme. He hinted that the government was looking for a permanent economic stabilisation programme, even if it came at the cost of growth and added that rampant inflation could be tamed only through macroeconomic stability. It is to be seen if Pakistan’s fractious politics can sustain a belt-tightening programme on the above lines.
In its recent biannual Pakistan Development Update, the World Bank has stated that Pakistan’s economic growth is expected to pick up slightly during the current fiscal year after contracting 0.2% last year, but would remain below 3% for the next two years. The Bank has further stated that unless a major structural reform programme is durably implemented, growth will remain muted.
An issue that has come up repeatedly in the context of economic stabilisation is a review of the 7th Finance Commission award of 2009 that gives 57.5% of the federal revenue to the provinces, along with devolution of some ministries to the provinces that was done around the same time. There has been disquiet in the Pakistani establishment that the revenue left at the disposal of the federal government after parting with the share of the provinces falls short of just two items of its budget, viz. defence and debt servicing. This necessitates borrowing to finance the other activities of the government. There have also been media reports in Pakistan that the IMF wants a review of this award to correct the federal-provinces imbalance in the sharing of resources. However, the provinces complain that the federal government has been wrongly excluding some revenue from the divisible pool, has not made all-out efforts to increase its revenue or to save money by abolishing at the federal level the ministries that were devolved to the provinces. PPP has already sounded a note of warning to the government on any review of the award.
Terrorism- Chinese Targets Attacked
There was no let-up in terror incidents in Pakistan in the midst of mounting tension with the Afghan Taliban over Pakistan’s allegation that they were not taking effective action to curb the activities of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) from the Afghan soil. Pakistan was rudely jolted by three major terror attacks within a span of seven days towards the end of March. Two of them, claimed by the Majeed Brigade of the Balochistan Liberation Army took place in Balochistan; the first against the Turbat naval airbase with reported presence of Chinese drones and the second against the Port Authority Complex of the Gwadar port, which is being run and expanded by the Chinese. A third attack in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa killed five Chinese engineers working on the Dasu Hydroelectric Project on the Indus river within the CPEC framework. Nine Chinese nationals working on this project were killed in a similar attack in 2021. The large number of Chinese personnel working on the CPEC projects in Pakistan have periodically been the target of terror attacks in spite of constitution of a special force to protect them. Security of these personnel has, therefore, been an important subject of discussion between the two sides. However, the Xinjiang-Gwadar linkage is too valuable for the Chinese to walk away from. It is an exit route for them to the Arabian Sea and the wider Indian Ocean, bypassing the maritime choke points in the east. Therefore, while the Chinese have called for a thorough investigation into the killing of their personnel, they have also said that they will continue to support Pakistan’s economic and social development. The fraught security situation nonetheless remains one of the major factors that are delaying implementation of the CPEC projects.
Judges Complain of Pressure from “agencies”
In the backdrop of persistent reports of interference by the army in the functioning of the judiciary, especially in relation to the cases against PTI leaders, six judges of the Islamabad High Court wrote to the Supreme Judicial Council, headed by the Chief Justice of Pakistan, alleging interference by intelligence agencies in the affairs of the court and intimidation of judges. The reference was mainly to the ISI. The judges requested the convening of a judicial convention to consider the matter. The Chief Justice convened a meeting of all the Supreme Court judges, which passed the buck on this sensitive matter to the government to constitute an inquiry commission. The government acted with alacrity to constitute a one member inquiry commission of the former Chief Justice Tassaduq Hussain Jillani. However, the move of the Supreme Court to entrust the matter to the government faced strong opposition from lawyers’ bodies, in the face of which Jillani too expressed his inability to conduct the inquiry. This forced the Chief Justice of Pakistan to take suo motu notice of the matter and constitute a seven-member bench to look into it. The Chief Justice has subsequently said that no attack on judiciary’s independence would be tolerated and hinted at convening the full court to consider the suo motu notice case.
The task of the Supreme Court to look into the matter will not be easy as the allegations involve the all-powerful army and its intelligence agency. There is a long history of interference by the army in the functioning of the judiciary, which has more often than not acted as its handmaiden, including by legalising illegal military takeovers on the basis of the dubious ‘doctrine of necessity’. The proceedings of the court on the issue would, therefore, be watched very carefully both within and outside Pakistan.
Unrest in ‘Gilgit-Baltistan’
The Af-Pak digest for February had referred to continued widespread unrest in ‘Gilgit-Baltistan’, inter alia, on the issue of wheat price hike. The Government of Pakistan finally decided to continue with wheat subsidy in the territory by slashing the budgets of some major ministries of the local government.
Pakistan-USA
The US administration repeatedly expressed concern about irregularities in the recent Pakistan elections and called upon the Pakistani authorities to probe the matter. The Pakistan Foreign Office, however, rejected the US advice, stating that Pakistan had the sovereign right to make decisions about its internal affairs. The US administration also expressed its support to Pakistan’s efforts to manage its daunting debt burden and reduce its reliance on international financing, while calling upon Pakistan to continue working with the IMF and other financial institutions to implement long-overdue macroeconomic reforms.
President Biden wrote a letter to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in late March, over three weeks after he assumed the office a second time, stating that the enduring partnership between the two countries remains critical to ensuring the security of their people and people around the world and the US continued to stand with Pakistan to tackle the most pressing global and regional challenges. Among the issues of cooperation, the President mentioned health security; economic growth; access to education for all; green alliance framework; climate; sustainable agriculture and water management; protection of human rights; and assistance for Pakistan’s recovery from the floods of 2022. The Pakistani media noted that while the President had not raised the issue of election irregularities, he had also not congratulated Shehbaz Sharif on taking over as Prime Minister. The absence of mention of security assistance was also noted. But the very fact that Biden, who had not engaged with the civilian leadership of Pakistan thus far, had chosen to write a letter was considered significant in spite of his nearing the end of his current term. In his response, Shehbaz Sharif expressed Pakistan’s willingness to work with the US towards the common goal of global peace and security and development and prosperity of the region. Subsequently, the State Department Spokesperson said in response to a question regarding help to Pakistan to fight TTP that the US will continue to expand security partnership with Pakistan.
Pakistan had entered into an agreement with Iran in 2012 to build a pipeline to bring gas from there. However, it failed to implement its part of the project, inter alia, in view of the US sanctions against Iran, thereby inviting the demand of stiff monetary compensation by Iran. The issue has remained under discussion between the two sides. It was reported towards the end of February that Pakistan had decided to appeal to the US not to apply the sanctions to the pipeline project. However, the subsequent US statements made it clear that they were not in favour of the pipeline. Testifying before a Congressional committee, Assistant Secretary of State, Donald Lu, stated that the US had warned Pakistan about their red lines, both legislative, but also in terms of impact on the US cooperation with Pakistan. He added, “If they get in bed with Iran, it will be very serious for our relationship.”
Pakistan-India
In a rather anodyne message posted on X, Prime Minister Modi congratulated Shehbaz Sharif on being sworn in as Prime Minister of Pakistan. Contrary to the messages on such occasions in the past, the message made no mention of the bilateral relationship. In an equally brief response on X, Shehbaz thanked the India Prime Minister for his message. The content of the two messages is not surprising, considering that India is entering its election cycle and may also like to wait and watch to ascertain the extent of attention and political capital that the weak Shehbaz Sharif government can devote to the India relationship, especially in the light of its other pressing problems. India may also like to take time to assess the thinking of the army chief Asim Munir on the bilateral relationship.
Addressing a press conference in London in late March, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who is close to Nawaz Sharif, said that the relevant stakeholders in Pakistan would “seriously examine” the trade situation with India. It would be recalled that bilateral trade has remained suspended since August 2019 in terms of a decision taken by the then Imran Khan government in the wake of withdrawal of special status of Jammu and Kashmir by India. While making the above statement, Ishaq Dar also referred to demands from the Pakistani business community to reopen trade with India. Subsequently, the Pakistan Foreign Office said that it was reviewing a proposal from the business community to resume trade with India. Only time will tell if these statements result in anything positive. While open trade with India is supported by a large segment of business and industry in Pakistan, it faces stiff opposition not only from the hardliners opposing normalisation of relations with India, but also from sectors such as pharmaceuticals and automobiles, in which the Pakistani manufacturers are making fat profits in the absence of imports from India. On the Indian side too, resumption of bilateral trade will face opposition from hawks unless it is on the basis of reciprocal grant of MFN status.
III Developments in Afghanistan
UN Quarterly Report on Afghanistan
The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres issued his quarterly report on the situation in Afghanistan in early March. He stated that after two and a half years in power, and although they have attained a consolidation of administration in political, security and economic areas, the de-facto authorities in Kabul appear to be facing growing internal disagreements over key governance issues, including the enforcement of drug ban. He added that though the Taliban continue their outreach efforts towards the population at the subnational and national levels, there has been no progress towards greater inclusivity in institutions and decision making. He also referred to further curtailment of women’s rights; responsiveness of the Taliban to address the return of large number of Afghans from Pakistan; continuation of attacks and rhetoric by ISIS-K, although on a lesser scale; and nearly half of the country’s population living in poverty. According to the report, the armed opposition continued to pose no challenge to the Taliban for territorial control, though assessing their capabilities remained difficult because many of the attacks claimed in the social media could not be verified. The Taliban described the report as an abuse of the UN name and alleged that such reports are prepared “at the behest of certain specific intelligence circles and nefarious people who are trying to exert pressure on the Islamic Emirate.”
Human Rights Situation
The Taliban remained non responsive to the demands of the international community to respect and ensure the rights of women and girls. In a statement at the end of February, 11 of the 15 members of the UNSC condemned the Taliban’s repression of women and girls. The practice of executions in public continued. The Taliban Supreme Leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada, issued a proclamation regarding implementation of brutal punishments against women and opposition to the western democratic principles. In a voice message broadcast on the state television, he told the western countries that the Taliban will soon implement the punishment of stoning women to death for adultery and flogging them in public. He asserted that women’s rights advocated by the west were against Sharia. The statement appeared to be an act of defiance against the countries calling upon the Taliban to respect women’s rights and a signal that the Taliban will not give up their core beliefs in the face of non-recognition of their government by members of the international community. Divisions on the future of Afghanistan among some key countries makes it easier for the Taliban to maintain such a stance. It would be recalled that sometime ago, the Chinese President Xi Jinping had received the credentials of the Taliban Ambassador. Russia, China and Iran were not in agreement with the western positions at the Doha meeting covered below. A recent Reuters report quotes Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying that Russia is working to remove the Taliban form its list of banned terrorist organisations.
Doha Meeting of Special Representatives
The two-day second meeting of special representatives for Afghanistan, hosted by the UN Secretary General, was held in Doha in February. The UN had extended an invitation to the Taliban to participate in it, even though they had been excluded from the first meeting in 2023. However, the Taliban set two conditions to attend it: first that they should be the sole representatives of Afghanistan (thereby excluding civil society representatives from the country) ; and second that they be given a meeting with the Secretary General to present their position. The Doha meeting was to consider, inter alia, the recommendations of a UN independent assessment of Afghanistan, which has suggested linking recognition of the Taliban regime to removal of restraints on women’s rights and a western proposal to appoint a UN Special Envoy for Afghanistan. Both these recommendations are opposed by the Taliban. Eventually, the meeting took place without their participation. The US State Department Spokesperson said that the Taliban were not the only Afghans who have a stake in the future of the country and the US will continue to support giving all Afghans a voice in shaping their country’s future. Contrary to the above US position, there were reports of the Chinese, Russian and Iranian envoys refusing to meet with representatives of the Afghan civil society. That consensus eluded the meeting was also clear from the Spokesperson of the Russian Foreign Ministry describing the Doha meeting as a failure. She added that the delegation of the Afghanistan government had refused to participate due to the humiliating conditions of participation that would allow them only to minor events involving “fugitive emissaries of the so-called Afghan civil society.” She further stated that no decision was made on the post of a special UN envoy and a small contact group for Afghanistan, as such issues had been included in the agenda without proper elaboration; and the establishment of a new post or format was doomed to failure without the support of Kabul and regional states. The Taliban also described the meeting as a failure. Subsequently, Roza Otunbayeva, the Special Representative of the Secretary General for Afghanistan and head of UNAMA said that the issue of special envoy for Afghanistan would be maintained on the agenda of the third Doha meeting in future.
Afghanistan-Pakistan
Pakistan and the Taliban regime remained at loggerheads both on the issue of Durand Line and TTP activities against Pakistan from the Afghan soil. Speaking at a gathering in Logar, the Taliban Deputy Foreign Minister, Sher Mohammad Stanikzai said that Afghanistan’s territory still remains on the other side of the Durand Line and Afghanistan will never recognise this line as a border. The Pakistan Foreign Office rejected Stanikzai’s assertion describing it as “self-serving and fanciful.” Responding to a statement of the spokesperson of the US State Department that the US supports the territorial integrity of both Afghanistan and Pakistan within their internationally recognised borders, a spokesman of the Taliban said that the US had no right to intervene in this matter as it is an issue of two nations that live on both sides of the Durand Line.
Following the killing of seven Pakistani army personnel in North Waziristan in a terror attack mounted by TTP, allegedly from the Afghan soil, Pakistan announced on March 18 that it had carried out “intelligence based anti-terrorist operations” in the border regions of Afghanistan against a terror group aligned with TTP. The Pakistan army accused the Taliban of not only arming terrorists but also giving safe haven to those committing terrorism in Pakistan. The Taliban confirmed the killing of eight women and children in two Pakistani airstrikes in the Paktika and Khost provinces. They warned Pakistan of dire consequences. Subsequently, the Taliban Defence Ministry said that its forces had targeted bases of the Pakistan army across the “artificial Durand Line” with heavy weapons in retaliation. De-escalation followed thereafter, apparently because both sides know their limitations. Pakistan realises that military means cannot resolve its problems with the Taliban. For the Afghans, transit trade through Pakistan is vital. So is their access to Pakistan for trade, medical treatment visiting relations.
Subsequently, a Pakistani delegation led by their Commerce Secretary visited Afghanistan and both sides described the talks as a success. While the Pakistani side did not give any details, the Taliban claimed that progress had been made on issues such as preferential trade, temporary permits for those travelling to Pakistan for trade and addressing the issues related to transit trade. Some media reports also maintained that the two sides had agreed to abandon barter trade and establish banking channels.
According to Pakistani media reports, Pakistan is to initiate another phase of expulsion of the Afghans living in the country illegally. It would be recalled that about half a million persons in this category have already been expelled.
Afghanistan-India
Speaking at the 6th Regional Dialogue of Secretaries of Security Councils/National Security Advisers on Afghanistan in Bishkek in February, the Deputy National Security Adviser of India, Vikran Misri, said that India has been consistent and steadfast with its policy in support to peace, security and stability in Afghanistan and as a contiguous neighbour, has legitimate economic and security interests in Afghanistan. He added that India believes in working with the international community and like-minded actors for the welfare of the Afghan people. He also spoke of the large number of scholarships given by the Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR) to Afghan students, including girls. He emphasised that the Afghan territory should not be used for sheltering, training, planning or financing terrorist acts; specifically, terrorists proscribed by the UN Security Council, including those belonging to the LeT and JeM.
The Joint Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs, dealing with Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan visited Kabul in March. He met senior members of the Afghan authorities including the Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and was reported to have discussed issues related to economic cooperation, including the use of Chabahar port by Afghan traders and India’s humanitarian assistance. He also met former President Hamid Karzai, UNAMA officials and members of the Afghan business community. According to a Taliban spokesman, Muttaqi told the Indian visitor that in line with the Taliban’s balanced foreign policy, Afghanistan seeks to strengthen political and economic relations with India as an important actor in the region. He also asked him to facilitate visas for Afghan businessmen, patients needing medical treatment and students.
Afghanistan-USA
Reacting to a Voice of America report that the US was considering the possibility of reopening its consulate in Afghanistan without recognising the Taliban regime, the spokesperson of the US State Department said that US does not intend to open its political representation in Afghanistan anytime soon. In a separate pronouncement, the spokesperson said that Washington is still the largest provider of aid to Afghanistan and more than $2 billion of US humanitarian aid has gone to Afghanistan since June 2021.
Speaking to Tolo news, the Chief of the Afghan army Fasihuddin Fetrat said that Afghanistan’s airspace is still managed by the US and they frequently violate it. Tolo news quoted him as saying that US drones enter the Afghan airspace from one of the neighbouring countries.
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(The views expressed are personal)
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