ANANTA INSIGHTS
Indo Pacific Pulse, May 2025
Welcome to a new edition of the Ananta Indo-Pacific newsletter, your window to geopolitics, diplomacy, trade, and security in this crucial region.
There is a ceasefire along the Line of Control and the International Boundary between India and Pakistan, but Operation Sindoor, India’s response that followed the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, remains ongoing. In a principled and calibrated retaliation, India has taken a range of military and non-military measures to inflict punishment on Pakistan and destroy the infrastructure of terrorism in territory controlled or occupied by that country, successfully achieved a wide range of objectives, and laid down deeper, firmer red lines of action for the future.
Away from the subcontinent, Japan and Vietnam discussed trade and global rules of commerce last month as both countries work to evaluate and adjust policy amid the disruptions caused by United States President Donald Trump’s tariffs regime.
Earlier in March, India continued to demonstrate its commitment to maritime cooperation with African and Indian Ocean nations, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi announcing the MAHASAGAR initiative during a visit to Mauritius, and the Indian Navy launching the initiatives of IOS Sagar and Exercise AIKEYME, which are aimed at consolidating its role as a Preferred Security Partner and First Responder in the Indian Ocean Region.
Meanwhile, China continued to flex its naval muscle, carrying out live-fire drills in international waters off the coasts of Australia, New Zealand, and Vietnam, and shooting drills in the Taiwan Strait, all of which portend a fiercer contest for maritime dominance in the Pacific Ocean and beyond.
And in the US, President Trump turned his attention to the domestic fishing industry, signing an Executive Order in April to “restore American seafood competitiveness”. The Secretary of Commerce has been asked to consider suspending, revising, or rescinding regulations that “overly burden America’s commercial fishing, aquaculture, and fish processing industries”.
OPERATION SINDOOR: India’s message to Pakistan and the world
On 7 May, a fortnight after Pakistan-backed terrorists massacred 26 Hindu civilians in Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, India targeted the infrastructure of state-sponsored terrorism in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, including bases, indoctrination centres, and training camps of internationally sanctioned terrorist groups Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.
In response to India’s focused, measured, and non-escalatory action that did not strike at Pakistani military or civilian targets, Pakistan used drones and shells against civilian areas and religious sites all along India’s western border. In retaliation, India inflicted heavy damage on several Pakistan Air Force bases, destroyed Pakistani radar installations, and knocked out its air defence units. Pakistan’s own aerial attacks were unable to breach Indian air defences.
On 10 May, Pakistan’s Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) called the Indian DGMO, and it was agreed that both sides would stop all firing and military action on land and in the air and sea with effect from 1700 hours Indian Standard Time on that day.
Operation Sindoor was a demonstration of India’s military and strategic power, executed through a combination of military and non-military means. The multi-dimensional operation effectively neutralized terrorist threats, deterred Pakistani aggression, and enforced India’s zero-tolerance policy towards terrorism. The operation maintained strategic restraint while gaining international support.
Subsequently, in an address to the nation, Prime Minister Modi laid down the contours of India’s policy in relation to Pakistan and cross-border terrorism going forward:
If there is a terrorist attack on India, a fitting reply will be given.
India will not tolerate nuclear blackmail. It will strike precisely and decisively at terrorist hideouts.
There will be no differentiation between the government sponsoring terrorism and the masterminds of terrorism.
Terror and talks, and terror and trade, cannot go together. Water and blood cannot flow together.
If there are talks with Pakistan, it will be only on terrorism, and only on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
JAPAN & VIETNAM: Trading Up
On 28 April, Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru met with his Vietnamese counterpart Pham Minh Chinh in Hanoi to discuss collaboration in high-tech, green transformation and semiconductor industries. Four agreements were signed on research and development in microchips and bilateral cooperation in energy transition. Japan will train around 250 Vietnamese doctoral students in the semiconductor industry.
Japan has also been involved in preliminary studies for the construction of a high-speed railway connecting Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam’s most ambitious infrastructure project.
The two leaders discussed the impact of US tariffs and China’s countermeasures on the global economy and free trade system. While China and the US have since reached a deal on tariffs, Japan remains reluctant to take sides, and has refused to join a US led economic bloc aligned against Beijing.
Japan is also pushing to strike its own trade deal with the US before the current 90-day reprieve expires, and aims to get permanent relief in sectors such as automobiles and agriculture. Before the meeting between American and Chinese negotiators in Switzerland over the last weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had said that the US would seek to reach agreements with allies and then approach China “as a group”.
INDIA & AFRICA: Security and Partnerships in the Indian Ocean
During his visit to Mauritius over 11-12 March, Prime Minister Modi attended the National Day celebrations of the Indian Ocean country as Chief Guest and exchanged Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) with his Mauritian counterpart Dr Navinchandra Ramgoolam.
India and Mauritius have together launched the Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions (MAHASAGAR) initiative aimed at developing trade, and building capacity and mutual security. MAHASAGAR symbolises India’s continuing commitment toward securing and leading this maritime domain, reflecting both its cultural heritage and strategic ambition.
India also aims to strengthen its maritime security cooperation with African and Indian Ocean nations through Exercise AIKEYME (Africa-India Key Maritime Engagement).
The exercise, which was co-hosted by the Indian Navy and the Tanzania People’s Defence Force from 13-18 April off the coast of Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania, saw participation from Comoros, Djibouti, Kenya, Eritrea, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Seychelles, and South Africa. At the launch of the exercise on 13 April, India’s Minister of State for Defence Sanjay Seth invoked the African saying: “If you want to go fast, go alone; if you want to go far, go together.”
The exercise comprised a Harbour Phase comprising table-top and command-post exercises focused on piracy response, information sharing, and seamanship training; and a Sea Phase of practical drills including seamanship, search and rescue, visit-board-search-and-seizure (VBSS), small-arms firing, and helicopter operations.
Beijing’s Biggest Bet
China continues to significantly expand its naval capabilities, developing the world’s largest navy and pushing ahead with projects such as nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and specialized amphibious assault platforms. While many modern militaries prioritize unmanned systems and drone technology, China continues to also invest heavily in conventional naval power.
Satellite imagery of China’s Dalian shipyard has revealed the ongoing construction of a large nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, designed to rival the U.S. Navy’s largest vessels. The “Type 004” carrier, China’s fourth, is expected to feature a modern launch system, enabling fighter jets to take off from four areas of the flight deck.
The US currently operates 11 nuclear-powered supercarriers. China aspires to reduce this capability gap by enabling extended operational range and providing sufficient power for advanced weapons systems, radar, and electromagnetic catapults on its new carrier.
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION: Trawling the oceans, raising concerns
US President Trump has issued an order to increase domestic seafood production by directing the Commerce Department to loosen regulations and open up 400,000 acres of the Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument to commercial fishing.
Environmental organisations fear that cutting regulations would harm fish populations that have already dwindled in many areas of the ocean. The Marine National Monument encompasses seven federally protected islands, atolls and seamounts, and is home to many endangered and threatened species of marine life.
As concerns grow over the environmental impact of the Trump administration’s policies, marine experts have been calling for greater attention to the ecology and conservation of the world’s oceans and their resources.
WAIT, WHAT? In China’s Yiwu, the missing American accent
Over the last several weeks, as sky-high tariffs on either side put brakes on trading activity in between the US and China, the American accent became conspicuously scarce in the aisles of China’s largest wholesale market, The South China Morning Post reported.
In the sprawling global bazaar at Yiwu city, where everything from Christmas decorations to power tools are on offer, Arabic, Russian, and Spanish were heard more commonly in the negotiations between buyers and sellers – mirroring the lack of American buyers on the ground in China.
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