I Overview
Pakistan
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Political Developments
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Army
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Economy
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Terrorism and Violence
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Pakistan-China
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Pakistan-USA
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Pakistan-Bangladesh
Afghanistan
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Human Rights Situation
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Afghanistan discussed at the UN
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Afghanistan-Pakistan
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Afghanistan-India
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Afghanistan-USA
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Afghanistan-Russia
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Afghanistan-Saudi Arabia
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Afghanistan-Iran
II Developments in Pakistan
Political Situation
Two long marches on Islamabad organised by PTI last year having failed to get any relief for him and his party from the army-led establishment, Imran Khan threatened a civil disobedience movement, including a call to his followers abroad not to send remittances to the country. However, in the face of the government’s firm stand and an offer to hold talks, he finally settled for a dialogue, even though he had maintained in the past that there would be no point in talking to the government as it did not have the real power. Thereafter, a few rounds of talks took place between the two sides. Finally, PTI presented a charter of demands to the government on January 16. The key demand was constitution of two judicial commissions to enquire into the violence against army installations on May 9, 2023, for which a number of PTI leaders and workers have been prosecuted, and action by the authorities against PTI cadres, who had assembled in Islamabad to protest, on November 26 last year. The party also demanded support of federal and provincial governments in bail, sentence suspension, and acquittals of political prisoners identified by it. The above demands were described as a prerequisite to wider negotiations later on regarding ‘restoration of the constitution, rule of law, respect for people’s mandate and free and fair elections’. The government said that it would discuss the demands with its coalition partners. However, subsequently, PTI discontinued its participation in the talks on the ground that the above commissions had not been constituted. Around the time of presentation of these demands, Barrister Gohar Ali Khan, caretaker Chairman of PTI said that he along with the Kyber-Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister, Ali Amin Gandapur, had met army chief Asim Munir in Peshawar and presented all demands of the party to him. He added that the meeting had taken place with Imran Khan’s permission. The unease of the government at this development was palpable. Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal said that if the meeting did take place, the army chief may have briefed the Prime Minister about it. Subsequently, in remarks on X, the state broadcaster PTV said, quoting security sources, that the conversation between Asim Munir and PTI leaders took place in the context of security and counter-terrorism issues, on which Munir had met representatives of various parties in Peshawar; and that when Barrister Gohar tried to raise political issues, he was advised to take those up with the government. This may not be the entire reality. After all, Asim Munir has no gripe about PTI at large; it is Imran Khan who is his bête noire. He would not be averse to PTI minus Imran Khan remaining a political player that the army could manipulate like other parties. The problem, of course, is that PTI without Imran’s popularity and charisma would be a non-entity. Regardless of the fate of PTI’s talks with the government, if and when the party reaches a settlement with the establishment, it cannot be without the nod of the army.
That the army, which influences judicial action against Imran Khan and other PTI leaders, may have had some hopes of things moving in the right direction became clear when an accountability court repeatedly postponed its verdict in perhaps the only credible case againstImran Khan- the Al-Qadir Corruption case. Finally, in the face of continued hold of Imran Khan on the party and his unyielding posture, the verdict was allowed to go through. The court sentenced Imran Khan and his wife to 14 and 7 years of prison respectively. The case related to return of a large sum of money, recovered by the British authorities in a money laundering case against a Pakistani real estate baron Malik Riaz and meant for the Pakistani state, to Riaz in return for his giving land and money to the Al-Qadir trust for setting up a university. Imran and his wife were the sole trustees of this trust.
PPP continued to complain against PML(N) on various counts, including inter-provincial distribution of water resources. However, there was no sign of its intention to destabilise the Shehbaz Sharif government.
The government reached a compromise with religious groups on the issue of registration of religious seminaries (reference the Af-Pak digest of December 2024). This is a set back to the efforts to reform the functioning of these seminaries.
Army
The army said that the former ISI chief, Faiz Hameed, who is under its custody, had been indicted by a military court on counts of engaging in political activities, violating anti-espionage laws and abusing his authority. As stated earlier in the Af-Pak digest, this case is nota sign of any genuine accountability within the army, but the result of the rivalry between the army chief Asim Munir and Faiz Hameed.
The army continued to act with an iron hand against its opponents. Military courts have indicted a number of civilians in connection with the riots of May 9, 2023, during which a number of army installations had been attacked. An anti-terrorism court sentenced former Chief Minister of ‘Gilgit Baltistan’ and PTI leader Khalid Khursheed to 34 years in prison on charges of threatening security agencies. Khursheed remains at large and has been declared a fugitive. The Pakistan National Assembly has passed a law giving greater role to intelligence agencies in controlling the content in social media.
Economy
The government unveiled itsNational Economic Transformation Plan 2024-29. It emphasises five areas: exports, equity and empowerment, environment, food and water security; and energy and infrastructure. While releasing the plan, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif described export-led growth as the ultimate saviour of the Pakistani economy. The plan sets targets of $25 billion and $13 billion for agricultural and IT exports respectively. The Prime Minister also stressed the need to promote digital and technology sectors and privatisation to prevent losses in the state owned enterprises. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb spoke of stimulating private investment, higher incomes and a low cost of living through a more competitive economy. The plan resolves to take tax to GDP ratio to 13%. Given Pakistan’s unsatisfactory experience in implementing such plans in the past, the fate of the latest plan remains uncertain.
The World Bank has approved a $20 billion loan package for Pakistan for the period 2025-35, aimed at reducing learning poverty, improper health outcomes and protecting people against climate change risks. While sanctioning the loan, the Bank noted challenges in its successful utilisation due to political divisions and worsening security situation.
Terrorism and Violence
A Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attack on a Pakistani check post in South Waziristan in December killed 16 soldiers and became the immediate cause of Pakistan’s airstrikes against alleged TTP hideouts in eastern Afghanistan (covered in the section on Afghanistan).
In spite of the Pakistan government’s announcement that peace had been restored between the warring sectarian groups in the Kurram district of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP), violence continued in the region. An attack on official vehicles left the DC of the district and some accompanying policemen injured. Convoys carrying relief supplies were repeatedly attacked. Faced with this situation, the security forces launched an operation against miscreants and to secure the highway connecting the district with other parts of the country.
In a separate incident in early January, TTP militants abducted 16 workers of a mine in Lakki Marwat district of KP operated by the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission. Eight of these workers were rescued by the security forces and one was found dead subsequently.
Pakistan-China
A report in the Pakistani daily The News International spoke of a visiting Pakistani delegation having been told by their counterparts in Chinese think tanks about three factors that cause concern on the Chinese side. These were listed as the sluggish pace of implementation of the CPEC projects, the far from satisfactory operational status of the Gwadar port and the repeated targeting of Chinese nationals by terrorists. The conversations, the newspaper said, were candid. It further stated that when the visiting Pakistanis spoke of India’s involvement in the attacks, their Chinese counterparts said that they had heard of it, but would like to see concrete evidence.
The Gwadar airport built by the Chinese (who have also given $230 million for it) and declared an international airport by Pakistan started its operations in January with the landing of the first flight from Karachi carrying 46 passengers. Reports in the Pakistani media have claimed that it isa state of the art airport, spread over an area of 4300 acres, capable of handling 4,00,000 passengers per annum and wide bodied aircraft. However, its utility as a commercial airport remains suspect. In this respect, it is likely to meet the same fate as the Gwadar port. Completed in 2007, this port handles very little traffic because of its poor hinterland, the abysmal law and order situation and the high cost of transporting goods from Gwadar to the rest of the country compared to the Karachi port. It is reported that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has ordered routing of 60% of all public sector cargo through the Gwadar port to trigger port activities. The port and the airport, therefore, make sense only as strategic assets for the Chinese – as their exit to the sea bypassing the maritime choke points in the east and for potential projection of China’s naval power in the Arabian Sea and the wider Indian Ocean. It is for this reason that while they may slow down their involvement in projects such as special economic zones etc under the CPEC, they could be expected to sustain their involvement in the projects related to their linkage from Xinjiang to Gwadar. But this linkage will not be without serious risks, as evidenced by the following quote attributed to a Counsellor in the Chinese Embassy in Islamabad in a report in The Guardian (What went wrong with ‘Pakistan’s Dubai’? – inside the Chinese initiative that is prompting terror attacks, The Guardian, 26th January, 2025): “If the security is not improved, who would come and work in this environment? There is hatred against the Chinese in Gwadar and Balochistan. Some evil forces are against the CPEC and they want to sabotage it.”
Pakistan-USA
The US administration imposed sanctions on Pakistan’s state-run missile development agency (National Development Complex) and three of its domestically based private vendors in December. Senior administration officials voiced concern that Pakistan’s long-range missiles could hit targets beyond South Asia. President Biden’s Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer said, “Candidly, it is hard for us to see Pakistan’s actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States.” He added that Pakistan had developed increasingly sophisticated missile technology from long range ballistic missile systems to equipment that would enable testing of significantly larger rocket motors. The US State Department too voiced concerns about Pakistan’s long range ballistic missiles programme. Pakistan Foreign Office rejected the US statements as “unfounded, devoid of rationality and sense of history.” It added that Pakistan’s strategic programme is solely designed to preserve peace and stability in South Asia. It further stated that since 2012, Pakistan has tried to address US concerns on this issue and there was unshakable resolve and complete consensus in Pakistan to preserve its missiles programme. Alluding to India, the Foreign Office statement said that the US concerns ignored a much more potent missile capability to Pakistan’s east and seemed to have been influenced by others to accentuate the already fragile strategic stability in the region.
Lacking in comprehensive national power to match its ambitions and with the continued desire to punch far above its weight as it did due to its Cold War linkages, Pakistan has come to rely heavily on its fast growing nuclear arsenal and missiles programme to build leverage not only vis a vis India but also in the wider world. Therefore, its denials in the face of the US assertions sound hollow.
Pakistan-Bangladesh
Since the change of regime in Bangladesh in August last year, Pakistan has moved quickly to develop linkages with the new government in Dhaka. Continuing that trend, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met Muhammad Yunus, Chief Adviser to the Interim Government of Bangladesh in the margins of the D-8 summit in Cairo. Based on a statement from Yunus’ office, AFP quoted him as telling Shehbaz, “The issues have kept coming again and again. Let us settle those issues for us to move forward.” No specific issues were mentioned. Pakistan PM’s office stated that Shehbaz highlighted the historical, religious and cultural linkages between the two countries and expressed the desire to enhance bilateral cooperation, particularly in trade, people to people contacts and cultural exchanges. He thanked Bangladesh for doing away with additional clearance requirements for Pakistani visa applicants, waiver of the condition of 100% physical inspection of the consignments from Pakistan and abolition of the special security desk for Pakistanis at the Dhaka airport. Yunus expressed his desire to revive SAARC.
Subsequently, Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told a press conference that he would be visiting Dhaka in February 2025 at the invitation of the Bangladesh government.
Closer ties appear to be emerging between the armies of the two countries also. At the end of December, media reports referred to a deal between the two armies under which Pak army officers would train Bangladesh army personnel beginning February 2025. According to the same reports, training will beheld in four cantonments of Bangladesh, starting with the Mymensingh cantonment, which has the training and doctrine command headquarters of the Bangladesh army. In a separate development, Lt. General S M Kamrul Hassan, principal staff officer of the Armed Forces Division of Bangladesh visited Pakistan and met, inter alia, army chiefAsim Munir. According to a statement issued by the Pakistan armed forces public relations wing ISPR, the two Generals underscored the importance of a stronger defence relationship and that the enduring partnership between the two “brotherly nations” must remain resilient against “external influences”. It further stated that security dynamics in the region were discussed and Asim Munir proposed joint efforts to promote peace and stability in South Asia and the broader region. This was followed by the visit of Pakistan’s DG ISI, Lt. Gen. Asim Malik to Dhaka. Asper media reports, he was received by Lt. Gen. Muhammad Faizur Rahman, Quarter Master General of the Bangladesh army , who is reported to have close ties with Islamist elements. The trip was reportedly aimed at creating an intelligence sharing network. Any collaboration between the two armies as in the past to fuel covert activities in India’s north-east would be a major strategic threat to India.
III Developments in Afghanistan
Human Rights Situation
The Taliban continued with their oppressive decrees against women. Their Supreme Leader issued a decree barring windows giving view of the areas in homes housing women.
Significantly, while speaking at a madrasa graduation ceremony in Khost, the Taliban Deputy Foreign Minister, Sher Mohammad Stanikzai, criticised the ban on girls’ education, saying that it is not in keeping with Sharia. Referring to women and girls, he said that injustice had been done to 20 million people in the country. They have no inheritance rights, are not allowed to study and they cannot go to mosques, the doors of universities and schools are closed for them and they are not allowed in religious schools either. He called upon the leaders of the Islamic Republic to open the doors of education for girls. At the same event,Deputy Prime Minister, Abdul Ghani Baradar stressed the importance of modern sciences alongside religious education. Some Taliban leaders have voiced opposition to the education ban for women and girls in the past also, though none as forcefully as Stanikzai, but they had fallen silent. The reasons for Stanikzai making the statement are not clear. However, he was part of the team in Doha that had negotiated the agreement with the US leading to the Taliban victory. Therefore, he is aware of the importance of restoring the educational and other rights of women and girls for recognition by the international community of the Taliban government. It is to be seen if his plea gains any momentum within the Taliban in the coming weeks and months.
The pleas of the international community for restoration of the rights of women and girls have fallen on deaf ears in so far as the Taliban leadership driving the oppressive policies is concerned. In January, Karim Khan, chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court said that he had asked the court to approve arrest warrants for the Taliban leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada and head of the Taliban Supreme Court, Abdul Hakim Haqqani, for crimes against humanity through gender based persecution. The Taliban described this move as a case of double standards and politically motivated. They rejected the accusations of the ICC prosecutor, adding that such actions undermine the credibility of the ICC. Speaking at the graduation ceremony of a jihadi school in Kandahar, Akhundzada said that he was not concerned about warnings of the West as those who stand against the enemies of Islam will not suffer any harm.
Afghanistan discussed at the UN
Speaking at the UNSC inDecember, the UN envoy Roza Otunbayeva said that though engagement so far had not worked to change some decisions of the Taliban, pressure and condemnation had not worked either. She added that pressure and condemnation, if pursued without forward looking, principled engagement would lead Afghanistan towards isolation. She called for patience and pragmatism in dealing with the Taliban. The UNSC later expressed its deep concern at the Taliban ban on medical education for women that would leave millions of women and girls without health care. In a statement released in late December, UNSC referred to expression of concerns by members over restrictions on women and girls. They also underscored that dialogue, consultation, and engagement among all relevant Afghan stake holders, the region and the wider international community, including through the Doha process, was critical for a political settlement in Afghanistan. They called for developing a political roadmap for discussion with all relevant stakeholders. Such statements issued from time to time have failed to make any material difference to the Taliban policies within the country. Instead the Taliban have seen the engagement of other countries with them grow, of course, short of formal recognition. The Taliban rejected the above statement, saying UNSC meetings without Afghan representation are ineffective.
Afghanistan-Pakistan
Faced with repeated attacks by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), allegedly from the Afghan soil, Pakistan resorted to airstrikes on purported TTP hideouts in Afghanistan’s eastern Paktika province on December 24. Pakistan said that it had carried out the operation based on accurate intelligence. The Taliban, on the other hand, stated that the attack killed close to fifty people, mainly women and children. The airstrikes took place within hours of the meetings of Pakistan’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Mohammad Sadiq, with the Taliban Interior and Foreign Ministers. The timing was clearly odd, even if it is assumed to be a case of a simultaneous engagement and coercion policy. Sadiq met the Taliban Deputy Prime Minister for Political Affairs Abdul Kabir after the strikes. The Taliban vowed to defend Afghanistan’s independence and sovereignty and said that they had carried out retaliatory attacks beyond the “hypothetical line” (Durand Line). They also alleged that terrorists working against the Islamic Emirate were based in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. The situation calmed down after some further clashes at the border. Both sides would like to avoid an all-out escalation. Pakistan realises that its military means cannot succeed where the mighty US-led NATO force failed. Since the factors underlying the conflict remain unresolved, further flare-ups cannot be ruled out.
In a separate development, Lt. General Asim Malik, DG ISI met the Tajik President Emomali Rahmon to discuss anti-terror cooperation. Tajikistan has had serious concerns as Jamaat Ansarullah, which seeks to overthrow the Tajik government, is based in Afghanistan. Further, the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRF), composed largely of former anti-Taliban Northern Alliance cadres is based in Tajikistan. The above gave rise to the speculation about Pakistan trying to develop a new front against the Taliban.
Pakistan does not have a clear path to deal with the problems that it is facing with its erstwhile proteges, the Afghan Taliban. Its policy has alternated between engagement and coercive actions. Army chief Asim Munir met representatives of political parties in Peshawar in mid-January to discuss terror and violence in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. State media quoted him assaying that while Pakistan wanted good relations with Afghanistan, the presence of TTP there and its attacks against Pakistan were the key hindrance. According to a report in the Pak daily Dawn, while political parties wanted engagement with Kabul, Asim Munir said that the Afghan Taliban “don’t listen to us”.
In the absence of a clear roadmap, Islamabad has proceeded with a muddled policy. Thus weeks after the airstrikes, the Pak Foreign Office described Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan as multilayered, adding that the two countries were in touch to address the challenges between them. Separately, Special Representative, Mohammad Sadiq, announced 4500 scholarships for Afghan students for three years.
Pakistan Foreign Office rejected the reports that Pakistan might have or might capture the strategically located Wakhan Corridor, adding that Wakhan is part of the Afghan territory.
Afghanistan-India
In a significant development, the Indian Foreign Secretary, Vikran Misri met the Taliban Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai on January 8, resulting in some important decisions. Responding to an Afghan request, India agreed to provide further humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, in the first instance for health and rehabilitation of refugees. India also conveyed its readiness to respond to the urgent development needs of the Afghan people. (India’s widely appreciated development assistance had come to a halt in 2021). The Afghan side underlined its sensitivity to India’s security concerns. Earlier, taking note of Pakistan’s airstrikes in Afghanistan, India had unequivocally condemned any attack on innocent civilians. It was also agreed to promote the use of Chabahar port for trade, including provision of humanitarian assistance. Finally, the two sides agreed to continue regular contacts at various levels. The Taliban said that they had urged India to issue visas to Afghan businessmen, patients and students.
Afghanistan-USA
The Taliban had very recently returned two American citizens in their custody in exchange for an Afghan national, convicted in the US of drug smuggling and extremism. However, the new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio said in a post on X on January 26, “Just hearing the Taliban is holding more American hostages than has been reported. If this is true, we will have to immediately place a VERY BIG bounty on their top leaders, maybe even bigger than the one we had on Bin Laden.” He gave no further details of the information that the US authorities possessed. Prior to this, the Spokesperson of the US National Security Council had also said that President Trump was seeking the release of all detained Americans in Afghanistan. Reacting to the above remarks, Suhail Shaheen, the Taliban representative in Qatar said that the Islamic Emirate seeks to resolve disputes through dialogue, but will not accept pressure. He added that those who support the policy of pressure should learn a lesson from the recent struggles of the Afghan people.
Afghanistan-Russia
Russia adopted a law that would allow courts to suspend ban on groups designated by Moscow as terrorist organisations. This was seen as a move to pave the way for further consolidation of engagement with the Afghan Taliban regime.
Afghanistan-Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia resumed it diplomatic operations in Kabul at the end of December. Saudi Arabia said that the move was based on its desire to provide all services to the brotherly people of Afghanistan. Besides Qatar, which has maintained a close relationship with the Taliban, UAE has also sought to develop relations with them in recent times. The Taliban Interior Minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani, met the UAE President in January, his second such meeting in recent months. A Taliban spokesperson said that the discussions focussed on regional stability and economic relations.
Afghanistan-Iran
The Iranians continued to complain against Afghanistan’s moves to deprive them of their share of water. The filling by Afghanistan of the Pashdam Dam in Herat and its efforts to build two more dams on the Farah river drew a strong reaction from Iran. Their Foreign Ministry described such projects as violation of bilateral agreements between the two countries, customary rules and good neighbourliness. They added that they would use all means to restore their water rights from Afghanistan and the Islamic Emirate should take this issue seriously. Separately, the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Iranian officials would discuss the water issue with Afghanistan so that Iran could have its share of water. The Taliban Deputy Prime Minister, on the other hand, had said in a recent meeting with the Iranian Ambassador that the water issue between the two countries had been resolved through mutual understanding and irresponsible statements in the matter could negatively affect relations between the two sides.
Subsequently, an Iranian delegation, led by their Foreign Minister Sayyid Abbas Araghchi paid a visit to Kabul. He met, inter alia, the Taliban Prime Minister and Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Defence, industry and trade. As per media reports, issues related to Afghan migrants in Iran, water rights, trade and border security came under consideration. Araghchi said that resolving the challenges faced by Afghan migrants and water rights issues should strengthen the relations between the two countries. He added that Iran was committed to dignified return of Afghan migrants to their homeland. A spokesman of the Taliban Foreign Office said that their Foreign Minister Muttaqi informed Araghchi that climate change has caused drought across the region and Afghanistan is also a victim of this condition. While adding that Afghanistan tries to ensure that water is available on the Iranian side also, he said that the issue depends solely on rainfall. Araghchi said at the end of the visit that he had been assured by his interlocutors that Iran’s water rights will be granted based on the Helmand Treaty.
The previous issues of Af-Pak Digest are available here: LINK