The Mezze Table Newsletter

Ananta Insights 

The Mezze Table | January 2025

Welcome to the first edition of The Mezze Table, Ananta’s insights on West Asia and the Gulf. From diplomatic strategies to business breakthroughs, this bulletin captures the trends, insights, and stories shaping this vibrant region.

  1. The Day After

Hostage Exchange and Ceasefire Developments

On January 19, 2025, dramatic scenes unfolded at Saraya Square in Gaza as Hamas handed over three Israeli hostages to the Red Cross in exchange for 90 Palestinian prisoners. A week later, Hamas released four women Israeli soldiers in exchange for 200 Palestinian prisoners. Hamas released soldiers before civilians thus violating the ceasefire-hostage deal and Israel temporarily halted the return of displaced Palestinian civilians to northern Gaza. However, Palestinians were allowed to return on Monday, January 27, after Israeli troops reopened the Netzarim corridor, having received the full list of live hostages from Hamas.

Outline of the Fragile Phased Agreement

Under the 42-day Phase One of the ceasefire agreement, Hamas is set to release all 33 civilian hostages in exchange for 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. Hamas has provided a comprehensive list of hostage information, confirming that 18 of the 26 hostages initially reported missing are alive. During this phase, Israel will begin to withdraw forces from Gaza and facilitate the return of displaced Palestinian civilians to northern Gaza.

While Egypt, Qatar, and the United States negotiate the details for Phases 2 & 3 of the deal, Israel has made it clear it will not provide written reassurances against resuming attacks after the return of all civilian hostages at the end of Phase 1. Broadly, the ceasefire’s subsequent phases outline the following:

  • Phase Two: Hamas would release all captured soldiers, and Israel would completely withdraw from Gaza.

  • Phase Three: Reconstruction of Gaza.

Israel’s Internal Dilemma

Public sentiment in Israel remains divided on the hostage-prisoner swap. Many believe it was necessary to secure the release of all hostages. That said, concerns persist about the potential security risks posed by freeing Palestinian prisoners. Seventy of the 200 Palestinian prisoners released by Israel on January 25 were immediately deported to Qatar via Egypt, where they were received by Hamas leadership.

Notably, two days after the ceasefire agreement began, Israel launched a significant military operation in Jenin, West Bank. Israel Defence Forces spokesperson Nadav Shoshani said the operation targeted Palestinian militant bases in refugee camps. Meanwhile, Israeli forces have yet to withdraw from southern Lebanon, also a violation of the ceasefire agreement.

Leadership changes have also marked this period of turmoil. Lt Gen Herzi Halevi, Chief of Staff of IDF, and Maj Gen Yaron Finkelman, head of Southern Command, both resigned, taking responsibility for failures that led to the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023.

Politically, the far-right Otzma Yehudit party has exited the coalition government, citing opposition to the “surrender-to-terror deal”. This departure has caused tensions, particularly among hostage families who expressed outrage during a Knesset meeting. Despite this internal discord, the government is unlikely to collapse over the ceasefire deal. However, the coalition faces another potential threat with the contentious Haredi IDF Draft Bill, currently under review following a landmark Supreme Court ruling in June 2024.

The Trump Factor

President Trump rescinded a Biden administration’s executive order that sanctioned Israeli settlers and expressed scepticism about the ceasefire agreement’s durability, stating, “It’s not our war; it’s their war.” During a press interaction aboard Air Force One, Trump controversially praised Gaza’s potential as a real estate project, citing its seaside location and climate, and advocated for “cleaning out Gaza,” further complicating US foreign policy.

The Road Ahead

Reconstruction of Gaza, the final phase of the ceasefire agreement, is projected to cost $50 billion, and take years to complete. Over half a million Gazans are expected to return to homes partially or fully destroyed, leaving them vulnerable if the ceasefire collapses. There is little clarity on who will fund this massive reconstruction effort, with Qatar the only Gulf nation showing interest so far.

The agreement fails to outline a credible pathway toward a two-state solution. While displaced Palestinians may begin to return, their future remains fraught as political will and international consensus on long-term peace are glaringly absent.

  1. India-GCC Relations

India was among the first countries to establish diplomatic ties with Kuwait following its independence on June 9, 1961, as per the Anglo-Kuwaiti treaty of 1899. While several high-ranking Kuwaiti officials have visited New Delhi since, an Indian Prime Minister visited the GCC country in 2024 at the northeastern tip of the Arabian Peninsula after four decades. 

The two-day visit on December was fitting conclusion to a pivotal year in India-Gulf partnership. Through 2024, PM Modi visited three of the six GCC countries, underscoring India’s renewed strategic focus on strengthening ties with the region.

The year started with newly joined BRICS member UAE president Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan visiting Gujarat in January as Chief Guest at the 10th Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit 2024. 

This was followed in February by PM Modi’s visit to UAE for the World Government Summit, and onward to Qatar. Indian foreign minister S Jaishankar visited various fora in UAE, Kuwait, Qatar through the year, culminating in the first India-GCC Joint Ministerial Meeting for Strategic Dialogue in Riyadh in September. Abu Dhabi crown prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited India, as did Saudia Arabia’s foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud who held talks with the Indian foreign minister. The 13th round of the secretary-level India-Oman Strategic Consultative Group meeting was held in New Delhi in December.

Kuwait Connect

PM’s visit to Kuwait aimed to deepen bilateral ties and engage with Indian diaspora. Kuwaiti media outlets extensively covered the two day visit, particularly Al-Qabas, an influential Arabic-language newspaper, which detailed the meetings between PM and Kuwaiti officials. The visit elevated India-Kuwait relations to a strategic level.

Defence Ties: The two countries signed an MoU to institutionalise bilateral defence cooperation, with a focus on joint military exercises, training, and collaboration in defence industry and research.

Sports Cooperation: An executive programme for cooperation in sports (2025-2028) was established, emphasizing shared expertise in sports medicine, management, and science.

Cultural Exchange: A programme for 2025-2029 was initiated to enhance collaboration in arts, music, dance, theatre, and cultural heritage.

International Solar Alliance: Kuwait officially joined the International Solar Alliance (ISA), signifying its commitment to renewable energy initiatives.

  1. India, West Asia, and the Gulf: Advancement in Sustainability

India has set itself a target of achieving 280 GW of solar capacity, sourcing 50% of energy from renewables, and developing an ambitious green hydrogen ecosystem (all by 2030). Additional programmes like Perform, Achieve, Trade (PAT) Scheme and UJALA (LED distribution programme) underscore India’s energy efficiency goals. Public-private partnerships with major players like Adani Green Energy and Reliance have also bolstered the country’s green efforts.

West Asia and the Gulf have similarly integrated sustainability into their business strategies. GCC countries have launched ambitious plans like Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, UAE’s Vision 2050, and Qatar’s National Vision 2030, all of which prioritize clean energy, technology, and sustainability. Notable mega projects include:

  • Saudi Arabia: The $500 billion smart city NEOM, powered by renewable energy, and the world’s largest green hydrogen plant being constructed in NEOM.

  • UAE: The Al Dhafra Solar Project, the world’s largest single-site solar project and the Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum Solar Park are two mega initiatives in energy transition. Dubai has also launched the world’s largest waste-to-energy facility, capable of powering approximately 135,000 homes.

  • Qatar: A solar energy plant expected to meet 10% of the country’s energy demand by 2030.

Additionally, UAE’s net-zero initiative by 2050 and Saudi Arabia’s Green Middle East Initiative reflect the region’s forward-thinking environmental policies.

Green Initiatives and Partnerships in 2024

  • In February 2024, India and Qatar signed a 20-year agreement for Qatar to supply 7.5 million metric tonnes per annum of liquefied natural gas (LNG), highlighting a shared commitment to sustainable energy solutions.

  • In September 2024, India and GCC countries adopted a comprehensive joint action plan to deepen cooperation in sectors including energy and food security, emphasizing their dedication to sustainable development.

  1. Resurrection of the Well-Watered Land

The ten-day lightning advance by rebel forces in Syria concluded in Damascus on December 8, 2024. Reports from the week that followed highlighted a strategic and pragmatic agreement to localise and decentralise governance in autonomous regions during the transition phase. This was seen as a significant development given Syria’s diverse ethno-sectarian composition. However, a month later, the regime’s ‘curriculum edits and their Islamic undertones sparked outrage across social media platforms.

While the new regime navigates Syria’s complex domestic political and social landscape, international diplomacy continues to unfold. On January 1, 2025, Syria’s new Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra visited Saudi Arabia, followed by official visits to Qatar, UAE, and Jordan to bolster regional security and economic partnerships. Foreign dignitaries from Norway, Spain, Germany, France, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Ukraine have since visited Syria. Notably, Foreign Minister Al-Shaibani received an invitation to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, a first for the Syrian government.

On January 6, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a six-month license permitting transactions with Syria’s governing institutions. This temporary authorization facilitates the sale, supply, storage, and donation of energy; including petroleum, natural gas, and electricity to or within Syria. Additionally, the U.S. withdrew its $10 million bounty on Abu Mohammad al-Golani (Al-Sharee). What has caught the diplomatic community’s attention is the recent visit by a Belarusian delegation, an ally of Russia, that coincided with Syria’s decision to terminate its agreement with Moscow to operate the port of Tartus. Soon after their visit, a Russian delegation arrived in Damascus to smoothen ties with Syria’s new de facto government given its naval base in Tartus and its airbase at Khmeimim, situated along Syria’s Mediterranean coast. 

Ahmed Al Sharee stated that, “this revolution belongs to all those who have suffered under the regime for the past 14 years,” but the transitional government is yet to outline a clear roadmap for Syria’s recovery. The success of this phase hinges on the effective engagement of local stakeholders and regional allies to shape Syria’s future. 

Wait, What? 

Botox Mishap Disqualifies Camels at the Annual King Abdulaziz Camel Festival

The ninth edition of the King Abdulaziz Festival wrapped up on January 2, 2025, in Al-Sahayid, a village nestled in the southern part of the Al-Dahna Desert. The event’s theme, Pride of its People, continued the tradition of celebrating the kingdom’s rich Bedouin heritage. Delegations from France, Sweden, Japan, Russia, Britain, Colombia, and Nigeria participated in this major cultural gathering.

A standout feature of the festival was the Camel Mazaen (beauty contest), where camels are judged based on their hump size, lip shape, neck length, posture, and overall physical allure. With prize money exceeding US $60 million, the contest is one of the most lucrative in the camel world. It’s no surprise that some camels were disqualified for receiving Botox injections and other cosmetic enhancements, a practice previously uncovered in 2018 and 2021, when authorities found owners injecting Botox to “improve their looks”.

Beyond the Camel Mazaen, the 30-day festival offered an immersive experience with art exhibits, cultural activities, live performances, and Arabic calligraphy. The event highlighted advancements in camel breeding, genetic research, and disease prevention, with tracking and monitoring of camel health incorporated. Sustainable desert environments and workshops promoting breeding practices were key aspects of the festival.

Continuing the Year of the Camel celebrations from 2024, King Saud University, in collaboration with the King Salman Global Academy for Arabic Language, hosted the 5th International Conference titled “Camels in Arab Culture” on January 16. The conference emphasised the significance of camel culture in both Saudi Arabia’s past and present, recognising it as a central element of the nation’s identity and Arab heritage.

Further Read: 

  • 19th Iran-India Foreign Office Consultations in New Delhi: Iran Foreign Ministry

  • Omani-Indian Business Forum to focus on renewable energy, hydrogen: Times of Oman

  • Lebanon: Hezbollah-Amal duo agree to participate in the Salam government: Tehran Times  

  • Iraq: Revised ‘sectarian law’ passed without vote: Middle East Eye 

  • Saudi Arabia set to buy stake in Pakistan Copper and gold mining project: Financial Times 

  • Marshall Wace, Rothschild and Skadden: Finance and law firms bet big on Middle East: Financial News London

  • Israel’s cyber industry defied the odds in 2024: The Times of Israel 

  • Blackstone is said to emerge as top bidder for Haldiram deal: Bloomberg  

  • Vinsys Advances Middle East Strategy with major investment in Saudi Arabia: Business World 

  • Why Saudi Arabia is so keen on the Turkish KAAN: Atlantic Council 

  • Tracing the history of Focaccia bread to the Middle East: New Research  

  • Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure: Middle East Council 

Maria Elizabeth Joseph

Ms. Maria Elizabeth Joseph, Assistant Director at Ananta Aspen Centre. She holds a Master’s degree in Middle Eastern Studies from Tel Aviv University and was a recipient of the Middle East Studies Thesis Grant for her comparative historical work on Iran’s policy towards the Baluch and Kurds. She writes on the Middle East and her chapter “The Arab Spring and Sunni Extremism among Sunni Minorities in Iran,” edited by MD. Muddassir Quamar in Politics of Change in Middle East and North Africa Since Arab Spring was published by Routledge in 2023. She has a working knowledge of Arabic and is currently studying Persian and Urdu.

Related

News

News

Letter

Ambassador Sharat Sabharwal, Former High Commissioner of India to Pakistan and Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Ananta Centre

AFPAK DIGEST

Pramit Pal Chaudhury, Foreign Editor, Hindustan Times, and Distinguished Fellow & Head, Strategic Affairs, Ananta
Mr AK Bhattacharya, Editorial Director, Business Standard, Distinguished Fellow, Ananta Centre Editorial Director

Pramit Pal Chaudhury, Foreign Editor, Hindustan Times, and Distinguished Fellow & Head, Strategic Affairs, Ananta

Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar, Former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia; President, Institute of

Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar, Former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia; President, Institute of

Australian High Commissioner- Ambassador Series ( 30 May 2024)

Tweets:https://x.com/AusHCIndia/status/1796460242710229478 Articles:https://www.timesnownews.com/india/australia-high-commissioner-sees-potential-for-indias-role-in-aukus-collaboration-article-110571507https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-is-australias-top-tier-security-partner-says-high-commissioner-green/articleshow/110598184.cms?from=mdrhttps://www.myind.net/Home/viewArticle/india-is-our-indispensable-partner-in-the-indo-pacific-says-australian-envoy-philip-greenhttps://www.wionews.com/world/india-is-our-indispensable-partner-in-indo-pacific-australian-envoy-philip-green-727380https://organiser.org/2024/06/01/240595/bharat/india-an-indispensable-top-tier-security-partner-for-us-australian-envoy-phillip-green/

News

Letter

Ambassador Sharat Sabharwal, Former High Commissioner of India to Pakistan and Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Ananta Centre

AFPAK DIGEST

Pramit Pal Chaudhury, Foreign Editor, Hindustan Times, and Distinguished Fellow & Head, Strategic Affairs, Ananta
Mr AK Bhattacharya, Editorial Director, Business Standard, Distinguished Fellow, Ananta Centre Editorial Director

Pramit Pal Chaudhury, Foreign Editor, Hindustan Times, and Distinguished Fellow & Head, Strategic Affairs, Ananta

Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar, Former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia; President, Institute of

Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar, Former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia; President, Institute of

Australian High Commissioner- Ambassador Series ( 30 May 2024)

Tweets:https://x.com/AusHCIndia/status/1796460242710229478 Articles:https://www.timesnownews.com/india/australia-high-commissioner-sees-potential-for-indias-role-in-aukus-collaboration-article-110571507https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-is-australias-top-tier-security-partner-says-high-commissioner-green/articleshow/110598184.cms?from=mdrhttps://www.myind.net/Home/viewArticle/india-is-our-indispensable-partner-in-the-indo-pacific-says-australian-envoy-philip-greenhttps://www.wionews.com/world/india-is-our-indispensable-partner-in-indo-pacific-australian-envoy-philip-green-727380https://organiser.org/2024/06/01/240595/bharat/india-an-indispensable-top-tier-security-partner-for-us-australian-envoy-phillip-green/

News

Letter

Ambassador Sharat Sabharwal, Former High Commissioner of India to Pakistan and Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Ananta Centre

AFPAK DIGEST

Pramit Pal Chaudhury, Foreign Editor, Hindustan Times, and Distinguished Fellow & Head, Strategic Affairs, Ananta
Mr AK Bhattacharya, Editorial Director, Business Standard, Distinguished Fellow, Ananta Centre Editorial Director

Pramit Pal Chaudhury, Foreign Editor, Hindustan Times, and Distinguished Fellow & Head, Strategic Affairs, Ananta

Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar, Former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia; President, Institute of

Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar, Former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia; President, Institute of

Australian High Commissioner- Ambassador Series ( 30 May 2024)

Tweets:https://x.com/AusHCIndia/status/1796460242710229478 Articles:https://www.timesnownews.com/india/australia-high-commissioner-sees-potential-for-indias-role-in-aukus-collaboration-article-110571507https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-is-australias-top-tier-security-partner-says-high-commissioner-green/articleshow/110598184.cms?from=mdrhttps://www.myind.net/Home/viewArticle/india-is-our-indispensable-partner-in-the-indo-pacific-says-australian-envoy-philip-greenhttps://www.wionews.com/world/india-is-our-indispensable-partner-in-indo-pacific-australian-envoy-philip-green-727380https://organiser.org/2024/06/01/240595/bharat/india-an-indispensable-top-tier-security-partner-for-us-australian-envoy-phillip-green/