Ananta Insights
Eye on the Indo-Pacific
Welcome to a new edition of the Ananta Indo-Pacific newsletter. The return of Donald Trump to the Oval Office after the presidential transition in January could signal some fundamental changes in United States policy, especially on trade and immigration. No significant policy break is, however, expected in the Indo-Pacific, where Trump had, in his first term as President (2017-21), identified China as a strategic rival and a threat. Through October, the Indo-Pacific region saw some significant developments. Here’s the month’s wrap:
At the 21st ASEAN-India Summit at Vientiane, Lao PDR, on 10 October, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reiterated India’s support for “ASEAN unity, ASEAN centrality, and ASEAN outlook” in the Indo-Pacific region, and announced a 10-point plan for “Enhancing Connectivity and Resilience”.
Meanwhile, China held a large land-and-sea drill followed by live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait opposite Taiwan, and the US and the Philippines carried out two weeks of military collaboration exercises in the Philippine Sea.
In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ran into political headwinds within weeks of assuming office on 1 October, as voters reduced the ruling coalition led by his Liberal Democratic Party to a minority in Parliament after the snap election of 27 October. The Prime Minister is reported to be seeking a meeting with Trump in the US this month in an attempt to replicate the close relationship that former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had with the President-elect during his first term in power.
And in Indonesia, the largest country and economy in Southeast Asia and the world’s third largest democracy, a new President, former general Prabowo Subianto, took charge on 20 October with indications of being an ‘active’ leader on foreign policy. This month, on his second trip to Beijing since winning the presidential election in February, Subianto described China as a “great power” and a “great civilization”, and said it was “only natural” that the two countries had become “very close partners…in many, many fields”.
ASEAN-India and East Asia Summits: India’s Stress on Security and Cooperation
India and ASEAN supported the full and effective implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties in the South China Sea in its entirety, and called for early conclusion of an effective and substantive Code of Conduct that is in accordance with international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), 1982.
The two sides reaffirmed the importance of maintaining and promoting peace, stability, maritime safety and security, freedom of navigation and overflight in the region, and other lawful uses of the seas, including unimpeded lawful maritime commerce, and to promote peaceful resolution of disputes in accordance with international law, including UNCLOS, and relevant standards and practices recommended by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and International Maritime Organisation (IMO).
Speaking at the ASEAN-India and East Asia Summits, Prime Minister Modi focused on the unity and centrality of ASEAN, which he said was pivotal to India’s vision for the Indo-Pacific. “Giving importance to ASEAN centrality, we launched the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative in 2019”, which “complements the ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific”, Modi said in his opening remarks at the ASEAN-India Summit.
In his intervention at the East Asia Summit on 11 October, the Prime Minister underlined that “peace, security, and stability in the South China Sea are in the interest of the entire Indo-Pacific region”, and that “our approach should focus on development and not expansionism”.
He said that India endorsed the ASEAN approach to the situation in Myanmar and supported the “Five-Point Consensus” agreed upon by ASEAN member states and the ruling junta in April 2021, and believed that “Myanmar should be engaged rather than isolated in this process”.
China: Battling Strains in Economy, Flexing Military Muscle Against Taiwan
China has pledged more support for its beleaguered real estate sector, including an expansion of funding to 4 trillion yuan (US$562.18 billion) by the end of the year. Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Ni Hong played up the prospects of a full-spectrum recovery at a press conference on 17 October, pointing to positive trends in home purchase data during the month. However, sentiment remains guarded, and no immediate recovery is expected.
Meanwhile, China launched major military drills around Taiwan for the second time this year, simulating a full-scale attack on the island only days after Taiwanese President William Lai delivered his first National Day speech. The exercises reinforce what is at the heart of the issue: China’s claim over self-governed Taiwan. Beijing sees the island as a breakaway province that will eventually be part of China and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve this.
Taiwan considers itself a separate nation — even though most Taiwanese are in favour of maintaining the status quo in which Taiwan neither declares independence from China nor unites with it. A day after the PLA’s massive drills to test the “integrated joint operation capabilities” of its troops, Taiwan announced it had signed contracts to purchase nearly 1,000 killer drones from the United States to bolster its asymmetric warfare capabilities.
On 16 October, Taiwan opened its third representative office in India in Mumbai, adding to its existing offices in New Delhi and Chennai. The following day, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson urged India to act with caution on issues involving Taiwan to ensure that the improvement in Sino-Indian relations is not impacted. China opposes moves by countries to engage in official contacts with Taiwan, Mao Ning, the spokesperson, said on 17 October.
On 21 October, ahead of a meeting between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping of China on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, India announced that Indian and Chinese negotiators had arrived at an agreement on patrolling arrangements along the Line of Actual Control, where tens of thousands of troops from both sides had been stationed since 2020. On 2 November, the Indian government confirmed that “verification patrolling” had commenced on agreed terms in Demchok and Depsang in Ladakh.
Japan: Shigeru Ishiba’s Troubles at Home and his Idea of an ‘Asian NATO’
The results of the 27 October election in Japan, held less than four weeks after Parliament confirmed Shigeru Ishiba to replace Fumio Kishida as Prime Minister, were a punishing blow for Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). After his coalition was reduced to a minority, Ishiba said he would “humbly” accept the “severe judgment”, but vowed to stay on in power. The LDP, which has ruled Japan almost continuously since 1955, has lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 2009. The party has been buffeted by a massive cascade of scandals in recent years, and Ishiba pledged to initiate “fundamental” reforms on “money and politics”.
Ishiba has long held the view that a stronger Japan and collective security structures are critical for a stable and peaceful Indo-Pacific. He supported Prime Minister Abe’s move away from Japan’s postwar policy of pacifism, and the increase of the country’s defence budget under Prime Minister Kishida. In a commentary written for the Hudson Institute in September, Ishiba proposed an “Asian version of NATO” as an essential deterrent against China, but subsequently conceded that such a structure “cannot be launched overnight”. Japan’s Quad partners, the United States, Australia, and India have been unenthusiastic about Ishiba’s idea of an Asian NATO, and it did not feature in the recent discussions held in Laos. Chinese state media has been scornful about the Japanese Prime Minister’s proposal.
Indonesia: New Leader Seeks to Chart Pragmatic Course in Contested Region
Prabowo Subianto took office as Indonesia’s eighth President on 20 October, promising to improve the lives of all Indonesians across the archipelago. In a wide-ranging inaugural speech after his swearing-in ceremony at the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR) in Jakarta, the President said: “With a full sense of responsibility and with all the strength in our souls and bodies, we will carry out the leadership of Indonesia…by prioritising the interests of all Indonesian people, including those who did not vote for us.”
Subianto, who travelled to Beijing on his first overseas visit as President, called for collaboration rather than confrontation among countries, but is likely to seek a balance between China and the US, where he was scheduled to travel next. Indonesia, he has declared, is “very clear” that it is non-aligned, and that it has “always been respectful of all great powers in the world”.
Philippines-US military drills in South China Sea
As China held large-scale military drills in the air and waters close to Taiwan, the US and Philippines carried out joint exercise Sama Sama, which simulated realistic scenarios in the South China Sea. As China used its Joint Sword-2024B exercise to send “a stern warning to the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces”, the expression Beijing uses to refer to Taiwan’s government, the Philippines and US navies “successfully conducted a series of advanced maritime drills”, the Armed Forces of the Philippines said in a statement.
Wait, what?
Chinese police went after costumed Halloween revellers in Shanghai, apparently to ensure there is no repeat of the embarrassment of last year when people wore costumes that made fun of the Chinese government and its policies. People had dressed as giant surveillance cameras, Covid testers and a censored Weibo post, among other innovative costume ideas.
Pictures on social media this year showed people in seemingly uncontroversial attire such as comic book characters, but appeared to have been taken away by police anyway. The police did not issue an official statement.
Check these out
India focusses on ASEAN centrality instead of suggesting bloc to take sides – The Economic Times
India, Asean back UNCLOS to resolve South China Sea disputes – The Economic Times
China will win ‘tough battle’ to preserve property sector: housing minister
Taiwan agrees to buy nearly 1,000 US killer drones as PLA stages drills around island
Consulate attack highlights China’s ‘delicate’ balancing act in Myanmar
Japan PM Ishiba tempers tone on Asian NATO, nuclear energy reduction – Nikkei Asia
What Japan’s new Prime Minister thinks about Indo-Pacific peace | Lowy Institute
Will Europe’s pivot to Asia have any teeth? – The Japan Times
Indonesia’s reference-point diplomacy decade under Jokowi
America’s new Asian alliance network will survive beyond Trump
Thank you for reading our newsletter this month. Stay tuned for the next edition.
