Political Developments
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, in Doha to discuss strategic partnerships and joint investments. The meeting was held as part of Tokayev’s visit to Qatar. During their meeting, the two leaders discussed the implementation of investment projects, including banking, telecommunications, energy, agriculture and healthcare. Tokayev expressed optimism that collaborations with Qatari businesses would drive economic growth for both nations. Al Thani highlighted the enduring strategic nature of the relationship between Astana and Doha, commending both governments for their systematic efforts to advance agreements reached at the highest level. The two leaders noted the significance of continuing their political dialogue to deepen bilateral cooperation further.
A visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Astana, Kazakhstan sought in part to put Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear corporation, on good footing with local officials. The diplomatic overture came in the wake of a vote some months ago in which Kazakhstan spoke out in favor of building a nuclear power plant—stoking long-held hopes among Russian officials that Rosatom would be selected to build the facility in the former Soviet republic. Kazakhstan, however, has thus far proved that it’s not such an easy date. Rosatom’s preferred approach to building nuclear plants abroad is to issue giant loans that lock in its national customers for decades, assuring their dependence on Russian technology, fuel and know-how. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, 2022, Rosatom’s expansion of its international portfolio became even more important to the Kremlin as it sought to buttress current alliances and forge new ones. But Kazakhstan is keeping its options open and entertaining the advances of many suitors in order to form a consortium of foreign nuclear suppliers. Nuclear firms from countries like France, China and South Korea are also very much in the running for the mega project, which will be built on the arid southeastern steppes on Lake Balkhash.
According to a Report by the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), a nuanced mix of cooperation and competition, shaped by overlapping and divergent interests has defined China and Russia’s longstanding presence in Central Asia. However, underlying tensions remain. Central Asia is of significant importance to both China and Russia, as they share vital security interests and important political and economic concerns in the region. However, Russia’s diminished reputation as a security provider due to the war in Ukraine has prompted regional states to explore partnerships with other powers, including China, whose security presence is expanding. While both Beijing and Moscow seek to maintain regional stability and prevent uprisings, which they attribute to Western influence, China’s diplomacy is becoming more assertive and increasingly independent of Russia. Their interests diverge significantly in the economic sphere. China’s infrastructure projects and trade networks under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) integrate Central Asia into its economic orbit, while Russia’s approach through the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) aims for a closed, Russia-centric market, creating a zero-sum dynamic. The report argues that the power shift from Russia to China is likely to deepen competition between the two powers. If current trends persist, the prospects for rivalry in Central Asia outweigh those for cooperation. While Russia once sought to align its project with China’s, little progress was made, especially as China’s influence has grown, in contrast to Russia’s diminishing effect in the region. China’s strategic patience and growing economic and political appeal have made it a more attractive partner for Central Asian states, particularly as fears of Russian aggression rise. Though fissures between China and Russia exist, the two powers continue to collaborate to exclude a common adversary – the West. Both sides still share the goal of creating an alternative global order, despite economic and strategic shifts redefining their roles in the region.
According to available data, approximately 2,000 individuals from Central Asia joined armed groups in Syria, with a significant portion affiliating with jihadist factions. Among them, the Turkistan Islamic Party stands out. Based in Eastern Turkistan (the eastern region of China), this group primarily consists of Uyghurs, many of whom have combat experience gained in Afghanistan. In addition, a considerable number of Tajiks have joined terrorist groups, though precise figures are unavailable. Estimates suggest around 2,000 Tajiks are involved. Uzbeks are also notably represented among these groups, with many affiliating with organizations like the Turkistan Islamic Party. As for individuals from Central Asia, about 80% of them are associated with the Turkistan Islamic Party. Through Türkiye, they reached Syria and have long since settled in Idlib. For these individuals, Idlib remains the only viable place in Syria where they can live and operate. Outside of Idlib, they have virtually no refuge.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan reached an agreement resolving long-standing border disputes.The two countries share a 970-kilometre border that has been a source of conflict since the Soviet Union’s dissolution in 1991. The border issues stem from poorly defined lines established during the Soviet era. These lines were administrative divisions rather than clear demarcations. After the Soviet Union collapsed, tensions increased. Access to water and resources became contentious. The mountainous terrain complicated these disputes further.
In 2024, Central Asia emerged as a key player on the global stage. It emerged as a battleground for intensifying competition, particularly between Russia and China. As 2025 approached, the Central Asian republics increasingly focused on economic diversification, sustainable partnerships and policies that uphold national autonomy while benefiting from foreign investment and cooperation. Central Asia has evolved from being a mere arena for the power plays of other nations to a region that asserts its autonomy. As the region emerges as a middle power, Central Asian republics have made substantial contributions to global affairs, particularly in the realms of energy, transportation and conflict mediation. The region has established robust partnerships, gaining influence in the critical minerals sector. The developments of 2024 will continue with increasing intensity and shape bilateral and multilateral relations in 2025.
The 5th round of the Central Asia-China Foreign Ministers’ Meeting was held in Chengdu. During the discussions, participants reviewed the implementation of the outcomes of the first Central Asia-China summit and preparations for the upcoming summit in 2025.
Kazakhstan ranked 49th out of 186 nations with 47.36 points, ahead of Russia, Türkiye, China and Central Asian countries, in the World Prosperity Index, published by HelloSafe Canadian analytical and financial platform. The HelloSafe Prosperity Index is based on six key indicators: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita,Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, gross national savings rate, Human Development Index (HDI), Gini coefficient and poverty rate. The results of the HelloSafe Prosperity Index show that the top 20 most prosperous countries are largely dominated by European countries, with Luxembourg in the lead (86.2), followed by Norway (85.1) and Ireland (84.7).
A Turkmen delegation headed by Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov paid a working visit to Afghanistan. The purpose of the visit was to get acquainted with the practical implementation of large-scale energy, transport and infrastructure international projects. He discussed efforts to expedite work on the TAPI gas pipeline project within Afghanistan.
In his Statement to the UN Climate Change Conference, COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan, Kazakh President said that water scarcity, affecting over two billion people worldwide, is one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century. Climate change, population growth, and poor resource management exacerbate the crisis, threatening food security, public health, and economic stability. By 2050, water stress could reduce GDP in affected regions by up to 8% and heighten resource disputes, increasing conflict risks. Central Asia is particularly vulnerable due to severe water scarcity and its global implications. The region’s vital water resources – such as the Caspian Sea, Aral Sea, and the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers – are rapidly depleting. Over 82 million people across Central Asia rely on shared water for agriculture, industry, and daily life. Rising temperatures accelerate glacial melt in the Pamir and Tian Shan mountains, threatening long-term freshwater availability for upstream nations such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Outdated Soviet-era water infrastructure worsens the crisis, causing significant losses in irrigation and drinking water supply. President Tokayev outlined Kazakhstan’s approach to tackling global and regional water challenges. Highlighting Kazakhstan’s commitment to universal access to clean water, he announced the country’s participation in the global Freshwater Challenge, focused on ensuring universal access to clean water for all, and proposed a Partnership for Global Glacier Research, emphasizing the vital role glaciers play in the water cycle and the need for collaborative action to prevent their disappearance. Additionally, Tokayev announced plans to host a UN-supported Regional Climate Conference in 2026.
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov dismissed the prime minister, Akylbek Japarov, “due to a transfer to another position.” Japarov was prime minister since 2021. The president assigned the prime ministerial duties to First Deputy Prime Minister Adylbek Kasymaliyev.
Economic Developments
Central Asia’s economy has grown faster than the global economy in the last two years. In recent years, the intricacy and prevalence of external obstacles have escalated. Nevertheless, the economies of Central Asia have sustained their momentum and exhibited considerable resilience to external disturbances. Central Asia’s GDP had an average yearly growth of 4.8 percent in 2022-2023, surpassing the global average growth of 3.4 percent. In the past two years, Central Asia has expanded at a rate 1.4 times greater than the global average. Projections indicate that by 2024, the nominal GDP of Central Asia will surpass $500billion with a population of 80 million, which has seen a growth spurt of over three percent in the last couple of years. The Central Asian region is throwing open the doors to a “demographic window of opportunity” for economic growth that could stretch on for the next 15-20 years. The conditions for sustainable long-term growth include addressing water and transport issues, investing in human capital and social infrastructure, providing a green light to private capital, making strategic investments in infrastructure, and accelerating industrial development. Central Asia encounters a multitude of hurdles to sustain its growth trajectory. Among them are the lack of access to the sea, climate and environmental risks, and the uncoordinated development of the water-energy complex. These challenges are best addressed collectively and in coordination between the region’s countries. If these issues are tackled together, coordinating water and energy development, creating a Eurasian transport framework, and expanding renewable energy sources, it will be cheaper and more effective.
In the current season, the volume of Kazakhstani grain exports increased significantly in almost all directions. In particular, shipments to and through Russia increased by 93%. Shipments through the Black Sea ports increased by 15%to 100 thsd tonnes, the Baltic countries and ports – by 56% to 53 thsd tonnes.
In 2024, Kazakhstan planned to export 68.8 million tons of oil. Of this, 55.4million tons will be transported via the CPC to Novorossiysk, 8.6 million tons through the Atyrau-Samara pipeline, 3.6 million tons across the Caspian Sea and1.1 million tons to China.
Kazakhstan should produce 87.8 million tonnes of oil in 2024 rather than the previously forecast 88.4 million tonnes. The oil production forecast was earlier reduced from 90.3 million tonnes to 88.4 million tonnes. Major repairs at large oilfields caused this downgrade in output.
Due to measures taken to support domestic producers and stimulate deep processing, Kazakhstan’s export of processed goods increased by 10.2%, reaching $23.3 billion from January to November 2024. Meanwhile, imports of goods declined by 3.3%, and investments in fixed capital rose by 3.1%, with the largest increase observed in non-oil industries. Overall, GDP growth during this period reached 4.4%. Diversification efforts contributed to sustained growth in areas of agriculture (13.4%), construction (10.3%), trade (8.2%), transport (8.1%), and manufacturing (5.3%), including metallurgy (7.2%), mechanical engineering (6.9%), the chemical industry (8.4%), as well as information and communications (5.3%). The non-oil sector entirely drove the economic growth in 2024 by 5.1%.
The population of Central Asia reached a historic milestone, exceeding 80 million people as of December 2024. Projections indicate this figure could surpass 100 million by 2050, highlighting the region’s rapid demographic growth and the challenges it brings for sustainable development. According to the Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) macroeconomic forecast, Central Asia’s population has grown by nearly one and a half times over the past 24 years, increasing by approximately one million people annually. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan lead the region in demographic growth. Tajikistan’s population reached 10 million at the beginning of 2024, marking an 80% increase since 1991. Uzbekistan, the region’s most populous country, has maintained an annual growth rate of 1.1–1.2%, with its population now exceeding 36.7 million. The region as a whole has a youthful demographic profile, with an average age of 26.2 years.
Eurasia is undergoing a tourism renaissance, with Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan emerging as some of the world’s most sought-after travel destinations. Once considered hidden gems, these countries are now capturing global attention with their rich cultural heritage, natural wonders, and modern developments. Kazakhstan recorded 9.2 million foreign tourists, thanks to visa-free access for several countries. Even Turkmenistan, known for its strict visa policies, is drawing adventurers to see the legendary Darvaza Gas Crater. Together, these countries are shaping Eurasia into a thriving hub for cultural tourism, adventure travel, and historical exploration, offering experiences that range from luxury getaways to off-the-beaten-path adventures. Kazakhstan’s tourism industry is experiencing extraordinary growth, with 2023 marking a record-breaking year. The country welcomed over 9.2 million international visitors, a substantial rise from the4.7 million recorded in 2022. Additionally, the number of domestic tourists surpassed 9.6 million, signaling a surge in local exploration as well. Investments in the tourism sector have soared, with a staggering 787 billion tenge (US$1.7 billion) invested in fixed assets — a 53% increase from previous years. Revenues from accommodations reached an impressive 230 billion tenge(US$521.1 million), while state treasury contributions climbed to 450 billion tenge (US$1 billion). The growth momentum continued into 2024, with an additional 177 billion tenge (US$401 million) earmarked for tourism-related projects. India also played a significant role in the influx, with 78,000 Indian travelers exploring Kazakhstan’s diverse offerings. Kazakhstan has made travel simpler for citizens from 79 countries by offering visa-free entry, making it one of the most accessible destinations in Eurasia. This policy aims to boost tourism, strengthen international ties, and attract travelers from Europe, Asia, the Americas, and the Middle East. Countries like France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, United States, Canada, and Australia now have visa-free access, encouraging travelers to explore. The policy also extends to key Asian countries, including Japan, South Korea, India, China, andMalaysia, as well as neighboring nations like Russia, Türkiye, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. The inclusion of major outbound tourism markets like India and China is expected to significantly boost visitor numbers.
Tourism in Uzbekistan has seen unprecedented growth. In 2023, the country welcomed a record-breaking 6.6 million foreign tourists, a sharp increase from the 2.7 million visitors in 2017. This surge highlights Uzbekistan’s rise as a global tourism hub. The government has taken significant steps to support this growth, encouraging tourism investment and promoting the country as a cultural hotspot. Revenue from travel and tourism is projected to reach $449.3 million in 2024, with further growth expected to push this figure to $720.6 million by 2029. The hotel industry is also booming, with the number of hotel users projected to grow to 6.15 million users by 2029, driven by the increasing demand for authentic travel experiences.
Turkmenistan is one of the most mysterious and least-explored countries in Eurasia. Often described as a “hidden gem”, it remains a land of curiosity and intrigue for travelers seeking something unique. Strict visa regulations and controlled access have kept it off the radar for mainstream tourism, but those who manage to visit are rewarded with surreal landscapes, ancient ruins, and modern architectural wonders. The most iconic attraction is the Darvaza Gas Crater, also known as the “Door to Hell”, a massive burning crater in the Karakum Desert that glows with fiery intensity, creating an other worldly scene.
Kyrgyzstan is a dream destination for travelers seeking adventure, natural beauty, and authentic cultural experiences. With its towering Tian Shan Mountains (also known as the “Heavenly Mountains”), crystal-clear alpine lakes, and lush green pastures, the country feels like a natural playground for adventurers and nature lovers. Unlike other heavily commercialized tourist destinations, Kyrgyzstan retains its wild, untouched beauty, offering travelers the chance to experience nomadic culture, horseback riding, trekking, and yurt stays.
India-Central Asia Relations
Recently, India and Kazakhstan formed a joint venture, IREUK Titanium Limited, to produce titanium slag in India. This was one of India’s first joint ventures with theCentral Asian Republics. This attempt is aligned with New Delhi’s proposal to establish an India-Central Asia Rare Earths Forum to leverage the region’s rich resources. Indian Rare Earth Limited (IREL) and Ust-Kamenogorsk Titanium and Magnesium Plant JSC initiated a joint venture to develop the titanium value chain in India, focusing on converting low-grade titanium oxide to titanium slag. This strategic alliance is set to be a catalyst for establishing a titanium pigment, Ti Slag, and sponge manufacturing industry, overcoming previous obstacles due to limited availability of high TiO2 feedstock. Titanium’s resilience against corrosion and its lightweight yet strong nature make it crucial for the aerospace and maritime sectors. By adopting advanced technology for titanium slag production, the project promises to boost India’s titanium sponge capacity, providing materials essential for defense, aerospace, and atomic energy applications. The joint venture is expected to generate significant employment opportunities, further bolstering the titanium industry in India.
Kazakhstan has imposed penalty on Dr Reddy’s Laboratories towards disallowance of claim of certain expenses by the tax authorities for the calendar year 2021. The order levies a penalty of KZT 17,597,212 (Rs 2.87 million). The Indian Firm said that there was no material impact on the financials, operations, or other activities of the company.
FlyArystan launched its inaugural international charter flight to Goa, carrying 165 tourists from Astana, Kazakhstan. The airline will operate 32 flights this winter, connecting Goa to two major Kazakh cities. Azur Air and SCAT Airlines also operate seasonal charter flights to Goa from other Kazakh cities.
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