I Overview
Pakistan
- Political Developments
- Economy
- Terrorism
- Kurram Violence
- PoK Unrest
- Pakistan-China
- Pakistan-Russia
- Pakistan-Iran
- Pakistan-Bangladesh
- Pakistan-Belarus
Afghanistan
- Akhundzada further tightens his grip
- Economy
- Terrorism
- Afghanistan-Pakistan
- Afghanistan-India
- Afghanistan-China
- Afghanistan-Russia
- Afghanistan-UAE
- Report on Commencement of Work on TAPI in Afghanistan
II Developments in Pakistan
Political Developments
Driven to a corner by the army-led Pakistani establishment and with little hope of relief from the weakened judiciary, Imran Khan continued with the policy of trying of leverage his public support, which still holds, to force the hand of the authorities to concede some space to him and his party. He called for a public march to Islamabad in November to stage a sit in at the D-Chowk there, an area abutted by key government buildings, until his release from prison and acceptance of other demands of his party. He timed the march with the official visit of the Belarus President to Pakistan. The convoy of PTI protestors from Khyber-Pakhtukhwa (KP), led by the KP Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur and Imran’s wife Bushra Bibi, which was joined by decent numbers from Punjab, managed to reach the outskirts of Islamabad after pitched battles with the security agencies en route. Finally the protest leaders along with a number of followers managed to reach the D Chowk on November 26. The authorities used brutal force that night to push them out of the capital. PTI called off the protest at this point “for the time being” and claimed a large number of casualties in its ranks. Pakistan thus stepped back from the brink yet again but the underlying rancour remains. The fear of the establishment and the prolonged incarceration of Imran Khan have caused cracks within PTI. Thus, in the aftermath of the called off protest, there were murmurs within the party at the efficacy of the policy deployed by the leadership, which had resulted in repeated loss of life in its ranks without achieving the desired goals.Incarcerated senior PTI leader Shah Mahmood Qureshi advocated national reconciliation to achieve political stability. It is clear that many senior leaders of PTI do not share the intensity of Imran Khan’s anger with the establishment. However, undaunted by such voices and counting on his public support, Imran Khan continues to favour the approach of agitation. He thus announced a grand gathering in Peshawar in December to pay homage to “the martyrs” of the recent Islamabad rally. His party did not attend the multiparty meeting on Kurram violence organised by the KP governor. Imran has also threatened a civil disobedience campaign in case a probe is not carried out into the November 26 crackdown against his party workers. The legislative assembly of the PTI ruled KP has passed a resolution opposing a likely military operation in Khyber and Bannu districts. Himself a Pakhtun, Imran Khan has considerable support in KP, where PTI has won two consecutive terms. However, he sees himself as a national leader with sizeable support in Punjab too and has, therefore, avoided invoking the Pakhtun card in his struggle against the establishment. However, should his travails persist, he may be tempted to do so, thus further complicating the establishment’s challenges in the tribal belt.
The army remained a key actor in civilian governance. Army chief Asim Munir said that he was against unrestricted free speech. Subsequently, a conference of Formation Commanders chaired by him called for stricter laws to combat the growing tide of hate speech and polarisation under the guise of freedom of speech.
There were continuing signs of differences between PML(N) andPPP, particularly on the latter’s grievances against the former for not conceding it enough political space in Punjab. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif constituted a committee to address these grievances. However, there was no word on the matter having been resolved.
JUI (F) of Maulana Fazlur Rehman, which had collaborated with the government in passing the recent legislation to weaken the Supreme Court, remained up in arms at the government’s foot-dragging on implementing a bill passed by the Parliament to revert the registration of religious seminaries from the federal education department to the traditional system of registration by five seminary boards: four belonging to the respective mainstream sects –Barelvi, Shia, Deobandi and Ahle Hadith schools of Islam- and the fifth for the seminaries under the control of Jamaat-i-Islami.
Economy
Implementation of the IMF programme has led to a degree of stability in the Pakistani economy in the immediate. Uncontrolled deficits have been brought under check. Inflation has gone down significantly, there is no danger of an imminent default and the value of the Pakistani rupee is relatively stable. However, the economy is not out of the woods and there is no early prospect of decent growth.
There are indications that the recently concluded IMF programme is not proceeding smoothly. The IMF worries on implementation of the programme were clear from the unscheduled visit of a Fund team to Pakistan in November. Subsequently, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb admitted during a briefing to a National Assembly panel that there were hiccups in implementation of the programme, but that the government was resolute to complete it. The Assembly panel was separately told by the Finance Secretary that Pakistan had failed to achieve three targets of the programme: revenue collection, spending on health and education and amendment of their agriculture income tax legislation by the provinces. As per Pakistan media reports, IMF has stipulated 39 strict conditions for release of the second tranche of the ongoing Extended Fund Facility. These include elimination of tax amnesties and exemptions, issuance of a governance and corruption assessment report, maintaining foreign exchange reserves equivalent to three months of import bill, achievement offiscal targets and right-sizing of the public finance structure.
The government told the Fund that despite some delays, it counted on debt rollover by China and a deferred payment facility for oil imports from Saudi Arabia to fill the $5 billion external funding gap. Subsequently, Saudi Arabia extended the term of its deposit of $3 billion with the State Bankof Pakistan for another year.
Terrorism
Pakistan continued to be jolted by terror attacks in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, resulting in significant loss of life. A serious attack at the Quetta railway station resulted in close to 30 dead and over 60 injured. Two Chinese nationals were injured in a Karachi shooting. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif chaired a meeting of the Apex Committee of the National Action Plan (NAP) against terrorism, which approved a comprehensive military operation against terrorist groups in Balochistan, including the MajeedBrigade, BLA and BLF.
Kurram Violence
The sectarian fault line of the Kurram district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which along with land ownership and tribal issues has been responsible for large scale violence from time to time, came alive recently. Following some killings in October, the authorities had imposed several restrictions, which provoked a massive public protest in early November. In the backdrop of this volatility, an attack against a convoy of vehicles carrying Shias in Lower Kurram resulted in over 40 dead later in November. This set in motion a spiral of violence which claimed over 120 lives in spite of the government efforts to calm things down.
POK Unrest
Since 2022, PoK has witnessed turmoil against misgovernance and high prices of daily necessities and electricity etc. A Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC) composed of trade unions, bar associations and civil society has united the people against unpopular policies of the government. The territory had seen considerable unrest a few months ago. However, the government response has been to describe the agitators as Indian agents and use force against them. The government also arranged gatherings to support Pakistan, but attendance remained thin. As part of this policy, the PoK government introduced an ordinance to restrict freedom of expression and assembly. This provoked another round of unrest recently. The PoK Supreme Court suspended the operation of the ordinance while admitting two petitions against it. However, protests continued. Eventually, the government was forced to withdraw the ordinance and release all persons arrested under it. The mobilisation of people under JAAC implies that unless the PoK government addresses the genuine grievances of the people, further unrest cannot be ruled out.
Pakistan-China
In view of periodic terror attacks against Chinese nationals in Pakistan, their security has become a major issue between the two countries. According to Pakistani media reports, China is greatly agitated over the matter and has been pushing for involvement of its own security staff to provide security to its nationals. Though the Pakistanis are reported to have involved Chinese security officials in taking decisions on security measures, they have been averse to the direct involvement of Chinese security personnel, which would in effect add to the number of the Chinese nationals to be protected. The Pakistan Foreign Office denied the above reports. However, subsequently, the authorities informed a National Assembly panel that China has proposed a joint venture security company and the proposal is currently under consideration. The panel was further informed that there are around 20000 Chinese nationals working on various projects in Pakistan, out of whom 2700 are working on the CPEC projects. It was stated that there have been14 terror attacks against the Chinese since 2021 – 2 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 4in Balochistan and 8 in Sindh (mainly Karachi). These attacks killed 20 Chinese and injured 34.
The implementation of CPEC projects has slowed down both due to security considerations and Pakistan’s economic problems and inability to meet the earlier debt obligations.
General Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of China visited Pakistan. The talks held during the visit were said to focus on enhanced military cooperation, counter-terrorism and regional security. The armies of the two countries conducted a three-week long counter-terrorism exercise named Warrior VIII. This was said to be the 8th in the series of exercises conducted annually.
Pakistan-Russia
In an interview with the RT TV network of Russia, Pakistan’s Energy Minister, Awais Ahmed Khan Leghari said that Russia and Pakistan are set to be linked by a new freight train line. He added that as early as March next year, the first south-north train trial run will transport goods from Russia toPakistan via Iran and Azerbaijan. The Minister also spoke of ongoing talks between Islamabad and Moscow regarding direct air service between the two countries.
The Minister was leading Pakistan’s delegation to the 9th Inter-Governmental Commission meeting in Moscow. After the meeting, the two countries signed eight memoranda of understanding covering cooperation in sectors like health, trade, industry and education.
Pakistan-Iran
The Iranian Foreign Minister Sayyid Abbas Araghchi paid a two-day visit to Pakistan in early November and met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif besides his counterpart Ishaq Dar. A Pak Foreign Office statement said that besides bilateral relations, the situation in the Middle-East would also be discussed. Pakistan media reports quoted sources as saying that the visit was part of diplomatic outreach by Iran to consult neighbours and regional countries on the tensions between Iran and Israel. However, from the public statements made by the visiting Minister, it would seem that the focus of the talks was border management between the two countries. Araghchi emphasised the need for improving coordination with Pakistan to strengthen border security and prevent cross border terror attacks from Pakistan. He assured his hosts that Theran would not give any space to terrorists to target Pakistan. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said that the two sides had agreed to intensify collaboration on border management and to address shared challenges. The Iranians would be keen to keep their border with Pakistan calm, especially at this juncture when they face serious tensions with Israel. Araghchi also said that his country was ready to engage with Pakistan to resolve the differences on non-fulfilment of its commitments by Pakistan in relation to the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline.
Pakistan-Bangladesh
Pakistan has been trying to improve its relations with Bangladesh after the change of regime there. In November, a cargo vessel sailed from Karachi to Chittagong, thus establishing direct maritime link between the two countries. Pakistani goods were going earlier to Bangladesh via Sri Lanka, Singapore or Malaysia. Further, Dhaka University has officially reversed its ban on admitting Pakistani students. Separately, speaking at the Hyderabad Chamber of Small Traders and Small Industry, the Deputy High Commissioner of Bangladesh to Pakistan said that direct flights between the two countries will resume shortly after a hiatus of nearly six years. He also invited the Pakistani business community to participate in Bangladesh’s annual trade exhibition in January 2025.
Pakistan-Belarus
President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, accompanied by a 68 member delegation, paid an official visit to Pakistan from November 25 to 27. Besides the Belarus Foreign Minister, the delegation included the country’s ministers of energy, justice, transport, natural resources and Chairman of the Military Industry Committee. This was indicative of the range of discussions during the visit. The two sides decided to achieve early conclusion of accords to enhance cooperation in trade, agriculture, food and defence technology. They also signed MOUs on cooperation in environmental protection, disaster management, financial intelligence sharing and science and technology.
III Developments in Afghanistan
Akhundzada further tightens his grip
The ultra conservative Kandahar faction of the Taliban, led by the supreme leader Haibatullah Akhundzada has gradually tightened its grip on running of the country, including strict application of the Sharia law asper its interpretation. In November, the Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid said that the Supreme leader had issued an eight-point decree, removing the authority over distribution of weapons, ammunition and military equipment from the Ministries of Interior, Defence and the Directorate of Intelligence. He added that henceforth, the proper use and safety of weapons, any use and distribution of arms and ammunition would only take place under the direct order of the supreme leader. The spokesperson of the Ministry of Interior also confirmed the decree.
Economy
According to a recent World Bank report, the Afghan economy is showing modest signs of growth, with a GDP growth rate of 2.7%, after two years of severe contraction. The partial recovery along with falling food prices has gradually improved household welfare. Afghan exports remained stable in 2023-24, but imports surged. The resulting deficit, with continued dependence on imports for fuel, food and machinery etc. poses a risk to the country’s economic stability. The Bank said that long term growth would require exploiting the substantial potential of the domestic private sector and improving the overall business environment. The Taliban rejected the report, saying the Bank had ignored some important achievements of their government.
The Taliban also rejected a report of the UN Office of Drugs and Crime that poppy cultivation in Afghanistan has increased by 19% in 2024compared to the previous year.
Terrorism
Having seen relative stability under the Taliban rule,Afghanistan was witness to two major terror attacks in recent weeks. An attack on a mosque in the Baghlan province killed eleven persons belonging to theTajik ethnic group. In yet another subsequent attack, the Taliban minister of refugees and repatriation, Khalil Rehman Haqqani was killed in a suicide bombing at his ministry along with at least five other persons. Khalil Haqqani was the brother of the founder of theHaqqani network, Jalaluddin Haqqani and uncle of the Taliban Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani. Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) claimed responsibility for the attack, which was the first successful assault at the heart of the Taliban power structure. Speaking at Khalil’s funeral, the Taliban Minister of Foreign Affairs, Amir Khan Muttaqi said that based on findings of the security agencies, six of the seven recent attacks in Afghanistan were planned outside the country. He did not, however, name the country concerned.He added that investigations would unearth the origin of the latest attack also that killed Khalil Haqqani.
The killing of Khalil Haqqani raises serious questions about the stability of the country under theTaliban. There have also been reports of a power tussle between the Haqqani group and the Kandahar faction headed by the Taliban supreme leader. Therefore, though the attack has been claimed by ISKP, doubts may continue to linger regarding its actual origin. The reported power tussle too has implications for stability of the Taliban dispensation.
Afghanistan-Pakistan
The dispute over Pakistan’s allegations of TTP activities from the Afghan soil remained unresolved. There were reports in the Pakistani media that China was trying to mediate an understanding between the two. However, no forward movement was reported, though a renewed attempt to engage each other was visible. The envoy of Afghanistan in Islamabad met the Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. The Taliban government condemned the Quetta railway station terror attack and Ishaq Dar condemned the attack that killed Khalil Haqqani. In a meeting with Pakistan’s Ambassador in Kabul, the Taliban Defence Minister Yaqoob Mujahid said that the Taliban were ready for comprehensive cooperation with Pakistan in various fields. While describing the meeting of the Afghan envoy with Ishaq Dar as a courtesy call, the PakistanForeign Office spoke of the interest of the Pakistan government in resolving issues through dialogue.
Afghanistan-India
The Joint Secretary for Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran in theIndian Ministry of External Affairs, J P Singh, visited Kabul in early November and met Foreign Minister Muttaqi. The Taliban Foreign Ministry said that the two sides discussed political and economic relations and peoples’ movement.They further stated that Muttaqi expressed the hope that relations between India and Afghanistan would expand and asked for an increase in the Indian visa facility for Afghan citizens, especially business persons. He thanked India for its humanitarian aid. According to the Taliban Foreign Office statement, theIndian diplomat said that alongside humanitarian aid, India had also started development assistance to Afghanistan and was engaged in discussions with the relevant institutions. Emphasising the importance of relations between the two countries, he spoke of discussion between the two sides on the Chabahar port in the near future. The statement claimed that he also promised to increase Indian visa facility for Afghans.
The Indian diplomat also met the Taliban Defence Minister Yaqood Mujahid and former President Karzai.
The Taliban Ministry of Industry and Commerce said that trade between Afghanistan and India was $650 million in the first ten months of 2024- $447 million in exports and $203 million in imports.
According to Indian media reports, the Taliban government appointed Ikramuddin Kamil as their Acting Consul in the Afghanistan consulate in Mumbai.
Afghanistan-China
Yue Xiaoyong, the Chinese Special Representative forAfghanistan said in a media interview that China would continue to support peace and reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. He flagged terrorism as an area of concern. He added that while continuing to prioritize Afghan women, the international community must tackle Afghanistan’s most pressing problems such as poverty, hunger, refugees and terrorism. Yue Xiaoyong also visitedAfghanistan and in a meeting with Foreign Minister Muttaqi called upon theTaliban government to attend the fifth meeting of foreign ministers ofAfghanistan’s neighbouring countries. The dates of this meeting are yet to be announced.
The Taliban Ministry of Energy and Water has signed an agreement with Metallurgical Corporation of China for feasibility, geophysics and geotechnical studies of the Baghdara dam in Kapisa province.
Afghanistan-Russia
Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Russian National SecurityCouncil and the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexei Overchuk, visited Afghanistan. Shoigu stated that their discussions with the Taliban government were regarding broad based cooperation across all sectors- economy, trade and energy etc. The delegation also had a meeting with the Taliban Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani, where security issues came under discussion. Shoigu said that the process to remove the Taliban from blacklist in Russia was at its final stages.
Speaking at the CSTO Summit in Astana, President Putin said that the situation in Afghanistan was stabilising. Russia was engaged in bilateral relations with Afghanistan’s current authorities and these would expand further.
Afghanistan-UAE
Tolo News reported that the President of UAE accepted the credentials of Badruddin Haqqani as Ambassador of the “Islamic Emirate.” TheTaliban Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the Ambassador met the UAE President, who described Afghanistan as a brotherly country. The Ambassador requested for transfer of Afghan prisoners, simplifying visa issuance for Afghan citizens and addressing the challenges facing the Afghans living in UAE. The UAE government stated in a press release that their President emphasised strengthening ties with the interim government in Afghanistan.
Report on Commencement of Work on TAPI in Afghanistan
Ariana News quoted a spokesman of the Taliban government assaying that practical work on the Afghanistan section of TAPI has finally started. He added that earlier the technical equipment needed for the project had been transferred to the border area with Turkmenistan for start of the work.
Notwithstanding the above announcement, the project faces several challenges.
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