ANANTA INSIGHTS
Washington Matters
Welcome to the latest edition of Washington Matters!
This issue will delve into Day One of the second Trump Presidency, the new American cabinet and sub-cabinet officials, the banning and reinstating of Tik-Tok, the supposed ratification of the ERA, the broken disaster relief economics of the California wildfires, the looming fights to increase defense spending, and the generational shift in US Congress.
- Day One of Trump 2.0
Image: President Donald Trump taking oath of office on January 20, 2017.
Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inauguration-schedule-2025/
President Donald Trump began his second term on January 20, 2025 with a flurry of executive orders.
As expected, President Trump reversed several immigration policies. The actions in this vein include enacting a national emergency at the US-Mexico border, a mass deportation plan for illegal immigrants and ending birthright citizenship.
Other “day one” promises include withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organisation, reversal of Biden’s EV mandate, announcement of new pollution standards to incentivize auto manufacturing, removal of guardrails on AI, a new gender policy, reissue of Schedule F-esque provision that makes it easier to fire civil servants now with extra provisions, and pardons for those accused and/or convicted for the riots in Washington DC on January 6, 2021. There are many more in the pipeline, per reports.
It is noteworthy that President Joe Biden, signed more than 60 executive orders in his first 100 days. While a majority were aimed at managing the pandemic, at least 24 of them direct reversals of President Trump’s first term policies, the biggest chunk of which were dedicated to immigration.
- The A-Team
A non-exhaustive list of President Trump’s cabinet, sub-cabinet and administrative nominees split into five key categories of impact: national security and foreign policy, economics, energy and climate, health and food, and administrative.
National Security and Foreign Policy | ||
---|---|---|
Position | Nominee | Description |
Secretary of State | Marco Rubio | Former senator, first Latino Secretary of State, foreign policy divergence with Trump on NATO. |
Director of National Intelligence | Tulsi Gabbard | Former congresswoman, critic of U.S. military interventions. |
National Security Adviser | Mike Waltz | Former Army Green Beret, critic of China and supporter of NATO defense. |
CIA Director | John Ratcliffe | Former DNI, criticized for declassifying Russian intelligence. |
Ambassador to UN | Elise Stefanik | Republican Conference Chair |
Special Envoy to the Middle East | Steven C. Witkoff | Real estate investor, longtime Trump ally and golf partner. |
Ambassador to NATO | Matthew Whitaker | Former acting Attorney General, criticized for alleged interference in Mueller investigation. |
Ambassador to Israel | Mike Huckabee | Former Arkansas Governor, staunch Israel supporter. |
Economics and Commerce | ||
---|---|---|
Position | Nominee | Key Details |
United States Trade Representative | Jamieson Greer | Washington lawyer, former chief of staff to Robert Lighthizer. |
National Economic Council Director | Kevin Hassett | Former CEA chair, expressed skepticism about Trump’s tax policies. |
Treasury Secretary | Scott Bessent | Hedge fund executive, pro-tariff, first potential LGBTQ+ Republican Cabinet member. |
Commerce Secretary | Howard Lutnick | CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, supporter of tariffs. |
Agriculture Secretary | Brooke Rollins | Former Trump policy advisor, President of America First Policy Institute. |
Labor Secretary | Lori Chavez-DeRemer | Former Congresswoman, selected as a Trump ally. |
FCC Chair | Brendan Carr | FCC Commissioner, critic of big tech, supported Musk. |
Secretary of Transportation | Sean Duffy | Former congressman, Fox Business co-host. |
Office of Management and Budget Director | Russell Vought | Former OMB Director, focuses on executive branch policy restructuring. |
Department of Government Efficiency | Elon Musk & Vivek Ramaswamy | Focus on cutting government bureaucracy and regulations. |
Energy and Climate | ||
---|---|---|
Position | Nominee | Key Details |
Secretary of Energy | Chris Wright | CEO of Liberty Energy, climate change skeptic, pro-oil and gas. |
Secretary of the Interior | Doug Burgum | North Dakota Governor, focus on oil drilling and energy dominance. |
Head of National Energy Council | Doug Burgum | Oversee U.S. energy dominance, cut regulations. |
EPA administrator | Lee Zeldin
| Represented New York’s 1st Congressional District from 2015 to 2023,will focus on deregulatory decisions |
Health and Food | ||
---|---|---|
Position | Nominee | Key Details |
Health and Human Services Secretary | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | Vaccine skeptic, controversial views on public health. |
Health and Human Services Deputy Secretary | Jim O’Neill | Silicon Valley investor, supported FDA reform, Thiel associate. |
Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator | Mehmet Oz | Celebrity doctor, criticized for promoting unproven treatments. |
FDA Commissioner | Marty Makary | Opposed vaccine mandates during COVID-19. |
Surgeon General | Janette Neshewat | Fox News contributor, chosen for public health oversight. |
Administrative | ||
---|---|---|
Position | Nominee | Key Details |
Chief of Staff | Susie Wiles | Campaign co-manager, first woman to hold the role. |
Domestic Policy Council Director | Vince Haley | Former Trump adviser, overseeing healthcare, immigration, and education. |
White House Press Secretary | Karoline Leavitt | Former campaign press secretary, assistant press secretary in first term. |
White House Communications Director | Steven Cheung | Campaign spokesman, former communications director for UFC. |
Homeland Security Secretary | Kristi Noem | South Dakota Governor, Trump loyalist, focused on immigration policies. |
Department of Homeland Security Adviser & Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy | Stephen Miller | Architect of controversial immigration policies, family separation. |
Border Czar | Tom Homan | Former ICE Director, focus on mass deportations. |
Veterans Affairs Secretary | Doug Collins | Former congressman, focused on cutting VA regulations and rooting out corruption. |
HUD Secretary | Scott Turner | Former NFL player, head of Trump’s Opportunity and Revitalization Council. |
- Flip Flops over Tik-Tok
In the most recent development, President Trump signed an executive order halting the TikTok ban for 75 days. As a result of which, the app restored services for its 170 million users in the country.
Lawmakers and U.S. officials have sounded the alarm for years about the supposed risks that TikTok’s ties to China pose to national security, and the Congress moved last year to force TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, to sell its stake in the app or be cut off from the U.S. market. The law gave the company a deadline of Jan. 19 — one day before a new president would take office.
In the nine months since Congress passed the sale-or-ban law, no clear buyers emerged, and ByteDance publicly insisted it would not sell TikTok. Google and Apple removed the app from their digital stores to comply with a federal law. But, on Jan 17, Biden administration officials stated that they do not plan to levy billions of dollars in fines against companies that allow access to TikTok in the U.S., as is stipulated by this law. A surprising reversal of position given that the original legislation was a result of their efforts. Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court heard appeals from Tik-Tok and ByteDance who had sued the administration for First Amendment (free speech) violation. On Jan 17, the supreme court unanimously upheld the law and a day later Tik-Tok pre-emptively went dark for American users.
During his first term in the White House, Trump issued executive orders in 2020 banning Chinese apps TikTok and WeChat, moves that the courts subsequently blocked.
Trump’s recent statements and the attendance of Tik-Tok’s CEO at the Presidential inauguration marks the second reversal of position by a President on this matter.
It seems neither Trump nor Biden were able to stick to their guns about keeping the Chinese app out of America.
- California Infernos highlight America’s Disaster Economics Problem, is a housing crash next?
The ongoing wildfires in Los Angeles are expected to cause significant insurance challenges, with analysts projecting insured losses of nearly $20 billion, and total damage between $250bn and $275bn, making these fires the costliest natural disaster in US history.
In the lead-up to the fires, major insurers like State Farm and Allstate cancelled several policies in high-risk areas, such as Pacific Palisades, citing the rising cost of construction, catastrophe exposure, and limited rate adjustments due to state regulations. Between 2020 and 2022, over 2.8 million homeowners’ policies in California were not renewed, further exacerbating the issue.
The continuing fire damage is threatening to push the fragile California insurance market closer to the brink. Last month, California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara issued back-to-back regulations meant to make it easier for insurers to make money in the state. The first allows insurers to use catastrophe models when setting rates, instead of relying solely on historical data. The second reform allows reinsurance costs to be passed down to customers in their premiums. However, only the first policy has been fully implemented. Any impact in steadying the insurers may come too late in the face of huge new liabilities, which could push private companies further towards exit.
As private insurers exit the market, homeowners are turning to the California FAIR Plan, the state’s insurer as last resort. However, this plan offers limited coverage and is more expensive, leaving hundreds of thousands of homeowners uninsured. FAIR is facing a cash shortfall with only $377 million in reserves and potential exposure totalling nearly $5 billion. FAIR plan did not enunciate how it would pay claims if they exceeded the reinsurance and cash on hand. State regulators said that the first $2 billion beyond what FAIR is able to cover will be split evenly between assessments on insurance companies in the state and policyholders. The companies would contribute in line with their percentage of the market over the past two years.
For some, this precariousness has raised the prospect of a housing crash.
The financial burden on homeowners is worsened by disputes over federal disaster aid. Former President Trump had threatened to cut off funding, citing water policy issues, but experts dispute his claims. Federal aid typically covers 75% of rebuilding costs and helps displaced residents, making it crucial for recovery. California lawmakers are pushing for disaster relief, pointing to past recoveries in Paradise and Santa Rosa, which relied heavily on federal funds. Without this assistance, many fear a slow and inadequate recovery.
This also points to a bigger pattern of broken disaster relief economics in the United States. After Hurricane Katrina, many New Orleans residents faced delays in receiving funds due to bureaucratic mismanagement. After the 2018 Camp Fire in Paradise, despite $375 million in federal aid, residents struggled with insurance disputes, rising construction costs, and lack of affordable housing. The US insurance and disaster relief system is failing to address immediate and long-term needs.
- The Equal Rights Amendment
On his last working day in office, President Biden declared the Equal Rights Amendment (ERA) to the Constitution “the law of the land,” a surprising statement that lacks formal legal effect.
The ERA seeks to guarantee equal rights under the law regardless of sex, offering a robust legal framework to combat gender-based discrimination and strengthen protections against inequality.
Originally introduced in Congress in 1923, the ERA gained traction in the 1970s, passing both houses in 1972. However, it fell short of ratification by three states by the 1982 deadline. While some states later rescinded their ratifications, others have reasserted support, leading to ongoing debates over its legal status and potential for future ratification.
Opponents of the Amendment argue it could invalidate gender-specific laws, complicate family law, and lead to costly legal challenges. They also contend that existing constitutional protections, like the 14th Amendment, already ensure gender equality.
Currently, there are concerns that Biden’s claim about the ERA being law of the land could be premature. Under U.S. law, amendments to the Constitution must be ratified by three-fourths, or 38 of the 50, state legislatures. Biden’s claim is rooted in the fact that by 2020 Virginia became the 38th state to ratify. In the same year, the Trump administration issued a legal opinion that it was too late to renew an effort for it to be ratified and any amendment process would need to be started anew.
In 2023, the U.S. Senate blocked a measure to remove the 1982 deadline. On December 17, 2024, the National Archivist stated that the ERA could not be certified as part of the Constitution due to “established legal, judicial, and procedural decisions.” Following President Biden’s remarks, it remains unclear whether the National Archives and Records Administration will recognize the ERA as part of the U.S. Constitution.
- Fiscal Budget 2025 and the Woes of Increasing Defense Spending
Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, the newly named vice chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, faces significant challenges in advancing the fiscal 2025 budget and a reconciliation package backed by President Trump. With a slim Republican majority, he recognizes the difficulty of satisfying lawmakers with conflicting demands but aims to secure an agreement before the March deadline, allowing appropriators to begin their work.
Roger Wicker’s call for a $60 billion annual increase for FY25 and FY26 and the outgoing US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s recent recommendation for a significant boost is also noteworthy. Austin proposed an additional $50 billion for FY2026, pushing the defense budget beyond $1 trillion in the coming years. Austin’s plan includes $926.5 billion in FY2026, rising to over $1 trillion by 2028, as part of a five-year defense strategy to meet US military demands.
Diaz-Balart stresses that defense spending is crucial to counter threats like China and to maintain military readiness. While supporting the Army’s proposed shift to more flexible funding, he cautions that the Department of Defense’s failure to pass audits complicates the issue. He also advocates for practical, efficient security assistance funding, avoiding bureaucratic turf battles.
- How Old is the 119th Congress?
The U.S. Congress is getting younger – on the whole, at least – according to a Pew Research Center analysis of representatives and senators in the new 119th Congress.
In the House, the largest generation is now Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980), with 180 members, or 41%. Sixty-six representatives, or 15%, are Millennials (1981-96); and 17, or 4%, belong to the Silent Generation (1928-45). One representative, Florida Democrat Maxwell Frost, belongs to Generation Z (those born after 1996).
Over in the Senate, there are only 28 Gen Xers, along with six Silents and five Millennials. Since the minimum age to be a senator is 30, no Gen Zers are yet eligible to serve there.
Overall, the median age of House Democrats is 57.6, while the median age of House Republicans is 57.5. In the Senate, the median age of all Democrats is 66.0, a bit higher than the median for Republicans (64.5).
- Wait, what?
According to Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, “masculine energy” is being sucked from the workforce, and corporations need to bring that “aggression” back. Zuckerberg’s remarks reflect the rising backlash against DEI initiatives and his own deference to the incoming Trump administration. It is interesting to follow the ever evolving stream of his personal and corporate ideology, given the constant turns it takes with the tide of the zeitgeist. Prior to his MAGA turn in 2024 he took a decidedly Lib turn in 2018 when he posted “The world feels anxious and divided, and Facebook has a lot of work to do – whether it’s protecting our community from abuse and hate, defending against interference by nation states, or making sure that time spent on Facebook is time well spent.”
The energy seems confused.
- Check these out
- Arohana Podcast Series: A Conversation between Vrinda Kapoor and Prerna Bountra on taking India from being a consumer of defence products to a producer of cutting edge defence tech.
- Trump signs slew of executive orders
- President Biden’s farewell address
- The United States and India Committed to Strengthening Strategic Technology Partnership
- US AI chip export restrictions
- Key events that led to Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal in Gaza
- Lithuania pledges to hit Donald Trump’s 5 percent defense spending target