BIMSTEC: A Lifeline or Lifebuoy for Bay of Bengal Security?
The security situation around India is increasingly grim as governments falter and the South Asian neighbourhood grapples with a deepening governance crisis. Major General Nazir Hussain Shah, during the 1971 Liberation War, prophetically remarked, "Bangladesh will be a disturbed desh." Today, as the country witnesses a student-led revolution, scholars warn that Bangladesh is a tragedy waiting to happen. An economic crisis is imminent, and Bangladesh's way out may rely heavily on India. However, India's support in rebuilding the nation’s economy will require a robust security framework. India faces four major concerns in this context: (a) the possibility of Bangladesh becoming a safe haven for militants from Northeast India, (b) the potential influx of refugees, (c) the challenge of stabilizing relations with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), and (d) safeguarding the economic investments made over the past 15 years while balancing trade and security concerns.
Amid these challenges, regional organizations in South Asia are struggling. The scheduled annual Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) summit 2024 has been postponed facing yet another crisis, following the dismissal of Srettha Thavisin, Prime Minister of Thailand from his post on 14 August. As a crucial member, Thailand plays a pivotal role in the bloc's dynamics. The abrupt leadership change could disrupt internal coordination and decision-making processes. The situation in the neighbourhood underscores the delicate balance within regional organizations and highlights the potential impact of domestic politics on multilateral cooperation.
Can India use BIMSTEC as a lifebuoy in such turbulent times? The Bay of Bengal holds immense strategic and economic significance for India. Situated at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia, it is a focal point for competition between India and China. The region is susceptible to natural disasters like tropical cyclones, with Cyclone Nargis (2008) being a prime example, causing significant human and economic losses. Additionally, anthropogenic factors contribute to environmental crises. Despite its vulnerability, the Bay of Bengal is vital for India's maritime trade (95% by volume, 70% by value), fishing, and resource extraction. The region straddles two major geopolitical blocs: ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and BIMSTEC. It is a place of both intense conflict and substantial economic growth, where power rivalry intertwines with geoeconomics, shaping the concept of maritime security. While economic cooperation is crucial, the lack of a robust regional security framework hinders India's ability to comprehensively address non-traditional security threats (NTSTs).
Despite the ongoing crisis, traditional military threats are no longer the sole focus, with the concept of human security, encompassing freedom from fear, want, and environmental disasters, taking centre stage (as highlighted by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan). This is particularly relevant for India, a nation strategically located in the Bay of Bengal and facing a multitude of non-traditional maritime security challenges due to its diverse socio-economic conditions. Unlike traditional threats, combating NTSTs, like the recent devastating Cyclone Remal, necessitates regional cooperation to establish functional security mechanisms. On 11 July 2024, Dr. S. Jaishankar, External Affairs Minister hosted a BIMSTEC Ministerial meeting to review regional cooperation and discuss outcomes for the upcoming 6th BIMSTEC Summit. The meeting concluded with Prime Minister Modi’s remarks on BIMSTEC’s critical role as an engine for economic and social growth. While India's efforts through BIMSTEC meetings and the proposed centre for maritime connectivity showcase its commitment to addressing these concerns, their effectiveness remains limited. This underscores the need for a deeper analysis of the challenges hindering regional cooperation and exploring alternative approaches to ensure comprehensive maritime security in the Bay of Bengal. This paper aims to examine the NTSTs India faces in the Bay of Bengal and analyse the effectiveness of maritime security measures undertaken by regional organizations like BIMSTEC in promoting stability and growth in the region.
Maritime Insecurities in the Bay of Bengal
The NTSTs in the Bay of Bengal are interconnected in complex ways, involving environmental, economic, and geopolitical factors. Countries around the Bay are essentially BIMSTEC member nations that have been victims of rising sea levels and tropical cyclones, aggravated by climate change. As a result, natural calamities are frequent which disrupt local economies and cause internal displacement. Such instability leads to scarcity of resources and food insecurities, prompting illegal activities.
Figure 1: Non-Traditional Security Threats in the Bay of Bengal (Infographic by author)
The Bay of Bengal is a rich fishing ground, with an annual fish catch of 6 million tonnes and extensive coral reefs. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, it is one of the Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing hotspots in the Asia-Pacific. As of 2023, India ranks fourth on the IUU fishing risk index, highlighting the severity of the issue. Such activities undermine India's efforts to promote a blue-based economic framework. The IUU depletes fish stocks, damages marine ecosystems, and degrades the quality of the sea bed. It is a major source of conflict between India and Sri Lanka, particularly involving Indian fishermen. About half of the world’s containers pass through the region, with its 16 major ports handling approximately 33 percent of global trade. The vulnerable trade route is thus exploited by pirates, terrorists and armed robbers, having cascading effects on global supply chains.
Illegal and undocumented migration through the Bay of Bengal is another cause of escalating regional tensions. Economic hardships and political instability encourage migration which paves the way for human trafficking and drug smuggling activities linked to organized crime. According to the UNHCR, over 4,500 Rohingya refugees tried to cross the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea last year, with 569 people reported dead or missing. This data underscores the horrible conditions driving refugees to flee Myanmar and overcrowded camps in Bangladesh.
India’s Balancing Act through BIMSTEC
India holds a vital position as the primary regional security provider. Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasised the importance of the Bay of Bengal, describing it as a bridge of connectivity, prosperity, and security. However, multilateral forums such as BIMSTEC have been ineffective in establishing a strong security framework primarily because of three fundamental reasons. First is the perceived threat to infringement of sovereignty. BIMSTEC’s founding principles prohibit member states from enforcing security measures transgressing territorial integrity and political independence. Second, Bay states follow a policy of cautious engagement, responding to India's maritime security initiatives with scepticism due to their strategic relationships with China. India has proposed to lead capacity-building programs for maritime law, combating sea-borne narcotics trade, and maritime surveillance. However, the response from BIMSTEC members is lackadaisical. Third, differing priorities regarding maritime challenges lead to a lack of consensus. For instance, India focuses on establishing regional dominance and securing sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) which creates tension.. Smaller countries fear India's hegemonic presence and thus approach external powers for alliances. This is evident in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka's engagements with China. Bangladesh prioritizes issues such as illegal fishing and migration, while Myanmar is grappling with internal conflict, leaving little scope for addressing external issues.
Given the diverse nature of priorities, BIMSTEC has partially been successful in establishing limited cooperation. India, the leader of the BIMSTEC security grouping, faces major challenges such as data collection, data exchange, surveillance and joint patrolling. In 2016, BIMSTEC leaders committed to work on coordination in law enforcement, intelligence and security agencies to heighten surveillance around Bay states. The leaders agreed to have an annual National Security Chiefs meeting and subsequently an Expert Group on Maritime Security Cooperation was created but meetings are irregular, blaring the lack of commitment. In conjunction with India’s Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) initiative, the Information Fusion Centre-Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR) plays a crucial role in managing NTSTs by providing expertise to member nations on prevention and response. The BIMSTEC Expert Group has identified a similar model for regional MDA to be implemented in the Bay region but progress is static. Overall, the interlinked nature of threats requires an extensive approach, involving multiple stakeholders to mitigate the impact of NTSTs.
Conclusion: Navigating Towards Unity
As a central strategic region within the Indo-Pacific, BIMSTEC’s success as a regional connectivity platform will depend on its ability to secure the Bay of Bengal. The challenges it faces are multifaceted, ranging from environmental hazards, and smuggling to human security threats. The success of India's vision for Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) depends on overcoming the current limitations of BIMSTEC and accentuating its commitment to strategizing a maritime security framework. India's leadership role in BIMSTEC positions it uniquely to drive comprehensive solutions. One key area for improvement is the implementation of existing agreements and the regularization of meetings. Enhancing data collection, exchange, and surveillance capabilities through a regional MDA will be critical in managing NTSTs. Furthermore, cooperation in compliance with the legal framework across all levels is non-negotiable. Failure to establish mutual trust, preparedness, capacity and capability will continue to pose challenges to maritime security in the region. As Professor R.P. Anand writes, “History bears testimony to the fact that the Asians suffered and were enslaved because of their differences and divisions. If history is not to be repeated, the divisions and dissensions, old prejudices and new tensions, between close but estranged neighbours in the Indian Ocean will have to be overcome and replaced by feelings of togetherness and cooperation”.
As India aspires to become a Vishwa Rakshak, it must begin by fortifying its maritime expanse. Securing the Bay of Bengal is a test case for India's Neighbourhood First Policy and Act East Policy. India continues to expand its diplomatic footprint by integrating foreign policy and military capabilities. Thus, enhancing military diplomacy is a vital tool for achieving international aspirations and promoting peace.
*Ms. Akankshya Ray is an intern at the Ananta Aspen Centre
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