ANANTA INSIGHTS
India and Neighbourhood
Welcome to the first edition of Ananta Insights on India and its Neighbourhood, our monthly survey of developments in South Asia.
Taliban Institutionalise Gender Apartheid
Image Courtesy: AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi
The Taliban regime has codified its rules of morality and virtuous conduct, and has formally published a decree issued by their supreme leader in 2022 as law. The severe restrictions on women’s freedoms in the code, drawn up in line with the Taliban’s interpretation of the Sharia, underline the regime’s relentless and determined pursuit of gender apartheid. The edict, approved by supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, prohibits women from speaking in public or making their voices heard, even from within their homes, effectively excluding them from every aspect of public life and denying them basic human rights. The code requires women to be completely covered from head to toe in public, a violation of their bodily autonomy, which is also a form of psychological oppression.
The United Nations has condemned the “intolerable restrictions” on Afghan women that have buried even deeper some of the early expectations that the Taliban who took power in Kabul in 2021 would be different from the oppressive regime that ruled the country before the U.S.-led invasion of 2001. The international community has sought to engage with the regime if it would lift the restrictions on women. Instead, the formal codification of the oppression of Afghan women represents a doubling down by the Taliban on their open violation of human rights and
international law.
The international community must take quick and decisive action, including imposing targeted sanctions on the Taliban leadership, to hold them accountable for their unacceptable actions. The international community should also extend every possible support to civil society organizations working to promote women’s rights in Afghanistan, and provide humanitarian aid to Afghan women and girls who are at risk of violence and discrimination.
Damming of Kunar: Implications for Pakistan
Image Courtesy: Water Supply – IWA Publishing, access: https://iwaponline.com/view-large/figure/2876334/ws-em21795f01.tif
News that China may build multiple hydroelectric dams on the Kunar river in the Afghan province of the same name has worrying implications for Pakistan.
The river, which originates in the Hindu Kush mountains of Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, enters Afghanistan and joins the Kabul river near Jalalabad before the combined rivers wind back into Pakistan, ultimately falling into the Indus at Attock. The announcement by a spokesperson for the Taliban Ministry of Water and Energy that these dams would be constructed in the Shal, Sagi, and Sartaq areas of Kunar could strain the already complex relationship with Pakistan which, as a lower riparian state in the Kabul river basin, is concerned about water security and the environmental impacts of the projects.
The health of the Kunar river, also known as the Chitral in Pakistan, is critical to the country, which faces a deteriorating water shortage situation especially in its drier areas. The Chitral-Kabul River Basin (C-KRB) sprawls over 14,782 square kilometres in the region of the Durand Line, the contested border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. There are no bilateral agreements
to govern water allocation and utilization between the two countries, and the building of dams upstream could significantly reduce the amount of water flowing into Pakistan, impacting agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water supply. The dam projects could also have negative consequences for biodiversity and ecology in both countries, and lead to environmental impacts including habitat destruction, sedimentation, and changes in river ecosystems.
The dams will likely exacerbate the current diplomatic and military tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Taliban were created and nurtured by Pakistan, but the current regime in Kabul has sought to assert its independent will, which has fed into historical animosities and sharpened discord between the two countries. All of these factors could reflect in challenges in other areas of bilateral cooperation as well.
The proposed construction of dams in the Kunar River basin also gives rise to important questions around China’s calculations in the region. Some observers have suggested that China’s interest in developing hydroelectric power in Afghanistan is driven by the desire to secure energy resources and expand its influence in the region. Others have raised concerns about the potential for China to use its control over water resources as a tool of leverage with Pakistan and Afghanistan. Afghanistan has almost no reliable revenue streams, and is heavily reliant on international aid and may struggle to maintain the dams once they are built.
Recommended on Afghanistan:
- The Daily Hustle: Going on a picnic with your family, if you’re a girl – Afghanistan Analysts Network
- Afghanistan sprinter Kimia Yousofi: I have to run for all the girls who can’t
- Taliban and Chinese partner restart copper project, reigniting worries
- Holiday in Afghanistan: Taliban wish you were here
2. Bangladesh
Bangladesh’s Unfinished Revolution
Image Courtesy: CNN World (Stringer/AFP/Getty Images)
An extraordinary weeks-long series of street protests led by university students ended the Awami League’s 15-and-a-half-year rule and forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee the country. The Awami League, which led Bangladesh’s War of Liberation against Pakistan, was accused of using a system of job quotas for freedom fighters and their progeny to consolidate its power. The government’s botched response to the protests ultimately led to Hasina’s resignation on August 5, 2024, a remarkable event even in a country that has seen political turmoil from birth.
The fall of Hasina exposed the authoritarian nature of her leadership. Once seen as a torchbearer of democracy and freedom, the daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founding father of Bangladesh, had become a repressive and authoritarian ruler, crushing all political dissent with an iron hand, and seemingly obsessed with prioritizing her personal legacy over the needs of her people and country.
The Awami League on its part insisted there was a deep political conspiracy to unseat Hasina, and that the student protests had been hijacked by elements opposed to her, including her old rival Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the radical Islamist Bangladesh Jama’at-e-Islami. The appointment of Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus as Chief Adviser of the post-Hasina interim government was backed by the Bangladesh army. The interim government, essentially a coalition of forces opposed to Hasina, faces complex challenges even as its own future remains uncertain. The students’ hope for immediate substantive change is unlikely to be fulfilled.
The student protests against reservation in government jobs — the quotas were removed by Hasina’s government after similar protests in 2018, but were reinstated by a court order in June this year — were framed by the context of a weak economy struggling to come out of the disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, and an acute shortage of jobs for an estimated 18 million Bangladeshi graduates. The quota system was seen as a tool to perpetuate privilege and injustice, and became a lightning rod for broader economic anxieties and discontent among young people who felt marginalized despite their qualifications. Once the protests began, the violent clashes between protesters and pro-government forces backed by police that led to hundreds of deaths, deepened the mistrust and resentment.
Also read: Bangladesh, Next Steps – ANANTA ASPEN CENTRE
Recommended on Bangladesh:
- Dr Yunus’s address and the path forward: The Daily Star
- Bangladesh’s ‘Gen Z revolution’ toppled PM Sheikh Hasina. Why did they hit the streets and what happens now? | CNN
3. Pakistan
SCO as a Platform for India-Pakistan Engagement
Image courtesy: (IANS)
Pakistan’s invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the upcoming Council of Heads of Government (CHG) meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in October marks a development in the fraught bilateral relationship between the two countries.
India and Pakistan have vastly different objectives in the SCO. Membership of the organization has not changed the position of either country on issues like Balochistan or Kashmir. As such, the relevance of Pakistan’s invitation to Prime Minister Modi for the CHG meeting depends on New Delhi’s acceptance of the same.
India, which, along with Pakistan, has been a full member since 2017, has been wary of the SCO’s anti-West stance, especially due to the centrality of China in the grouping. India has consistently refused to support China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the SCO’s joint declarations and reiterated its principled position on BRI’s impact on sovereignty and territorial integrity. Despite all this, the SCO remains the only multilateral forum where India and Pakistan have managed to cooperate. The SCO’s mechanism for addressing disputes through dialogue and negotiation offers a potential avenue for resolving the longstanding tensions between India and Pakistan.
Recommended on Pakistan:
- Pakistan to experiment with new currency notes made of polymer plastic – The Hindu
- What’s behind Pakistan’s deadly Balochistan attacks, which left 74 dead? | Conflict News | Al Jazeera
- PM, Tajik envoy discuss regional connectivity projects
- $27bn re-profiling needed to secure IMF bailout
- Pak, China launch report on SEZs
- PM announces countrywide drive against Hepatitis C
4. Sri Lanka
Digitalizing Sri Lanka: Looking at a Brighter Future
Image Courtesy: The Morning
Sri Lanka has launched a digitalization initiative aimed at bridging the technological gap and fostering much needed economic growth. The initiative, spearheaded by the Ministry of Technology, aims to empower citizens and businesses at the grassroots. The Digital Economy Strategy 2030, which is focused on six core pillars, will launch a pilot project in Kegalle in central Sri Lanka to assess effectiveness and refine implementation.
The government of President Ranil Wickremesinghe has made a strategic decision to prioritize micro, small, and medium-scale enterprises (MSMEs). These businesses form the backbone of the economy, and their digitalization can have a ripple effect throughout the country. By providing MSMEs with the necessary tools and training, Sri Lanka can enhance their productivity, competitiveness, and access to global markets.
Also read: Bridging Borders: Enhancing Connectivity Between India and Sri Lanka – ANANTA ASPEN CENTRE
Recommended on Sri Lanka:
- Sri Lanka-India Ferry Service Set to Resume
- Sri Lanka, India ink MoU for LNG infrastructure in Kerawalapitiya power plant | Daily FT
- Dengue cases for 2024 cross 32,000
- Whoever wins presidential poll should adhere to IMF remedies – Japanese Ambassador
5. Maldives
Resetting of Ties between Male and New Delhi
A strong and stable relationship with India is essential for the economic development and security of Maldives. The country’s urgent need for debt relief has likely influenced its recent attempts at prioritizing relations with India.
The current government in Male came to power on an “India Out” plank, but its senior officials have made contrasting statements about India. While Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid has accused India of threatening the sovereignty of Maldives, Economic Development and Trade Minister Mohamed Saeed, while on a visit to China, acknowledged the crucial role India plays in the country’s economy. The 180-degree turn suggests a recognition in the Maldivian government of the benefits of a strong relationship with India.
The recent visit of Dr. S. Jaishankar, External Affairs Minister of India, to the Maldives is a significant development in this regard, following a period of strain earlier this year. These developments underline the importance of diplomacy and cooperation in addressing regional challenges.
- Maldives is heading towards crisis, says former FM as usable dollar reserves run out – BusinessToday
6. Bhutan
Continued Focus on Economic Cooperation
Image Courtesy: India News Network
The strengthening of economic ties was the headline theme of the visit of India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri to Bhutan. The Indian side underlined its commitment to supporting Bhutan’s development agenda through various initiatives, including the Economic Stimulus Programme (ESP). India agreed to positively consider the request of the Royal Government of Bhutan to frontload the full amount of Nu. 15 billion (INR 1,500 crore) of the ESP in the first one and a half years. India can help Bhutan accelerate its development efforts subject to the timely implementation of the proposed projects.
India’s approach demonstrates its confidence in Bhutan’s ability to effectively utilize the resources and achieve tangible results. The Foreign Secretary’s visit also covered a range of other bilateral issues, including energy cooperation, trade and investment, connectivity, and people-to-people ties.
Recommended on Bhutan:
- Bhutan-India railway project moves forward with detailed feasibility studies | Kuensel Online
- JICA support for Immersive Digital Museum Experience at Trongsa Royal Heritage Museum – Business Bhutan
- Bhutan Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay Interview: It is gross national happiness that has brought us this far – South Asia News
7. Myanmar
Deepening Crisis Hurting Local Communities
The outbreak of fighting in northeastern Myanmar following the collapse of a Chinese-brokered ceasefire has complicated the situation further on the ground. As resistance forces intensify their attacks on the military regime, local communities may be caught in the crossfire. It is imperative that their safety and well-being are prioritized.
Addressing the crisis in Myanmar requires a comprehensive approach that takes into account the needs of all affected populations, including displaced communities. The civil war has had a
devastating impact on Myanmar’s economy and its social fabric. The displacement of people, destruction of infrastructure, and breakdown of essential services have created a major humanitarian crisis. Actions and decisions of local authorities can have far-reaching consequences in this situation. If they actively collaborate with the military, they may be complicit in human rights abuses and contribute to the ongoing conflict.
Recommended on Myanmar:
- Manipur villages unite to protect endangered Pangolins along Indo-Myanmar border
- The Academic Brain Drain Since Myanmar’s Military Coup – The Diplomat
- Seven years after forced mass displacement of Rohingya from Myanmar, deadly attacks on children continue in Rakhine State
- Myanmar crisis to South China Sea tensions: Is PLA’s Southern Theatre Command stretched? – Firstpost
- China steps up armed patrols on border as Myanmar conflict deepens
- Kolkata-Bangkok Highway: The trilateral highway linking India, Myanmar, and Thailand | Times of India Travel
8. Nepal
Promise of Foreign Investment
Amid continuing turmoil in its government, Nepal’s foreign direct investment (FDI) commitments witnessed a significant surge in the fiscal year ending mid-July, reaching Rs 61.78 billion. This marked a substantial doubling from the previous year, primarily driven by investments in the service sector. The April investment summit played a key role in attracting this interest, although the response from global investors, including the Nepali private sector, was somewhat subdued compared to loftier official expectations.
The fiscal year saw pledges for approximately 400 projects, with nearly half of these commitments originating from China. While the precise nature of these projects remains unclear, China’s continued interest and involvement in Nepal, where it seeks to undermine Indian influence, is evident.
Recommended on Nepal:
