Ananta Insights | Unchartered Countdown to the Next Knesset Election | Ambassador Mahesh Sachdev | June 2026

Israel’s nearly 7 million voters have been on an emotional roller coaster since the last elections to the Knesset in 2022. The four-year stint began with large protests and demonstrations against what was seen as a cynical government attempting to hijack the national agenda on issues such as judicial supremacy, exemptions for ultra-orthodox Jews, delay in PM’s corruption trial, rampant settlement activity in OPT, etc. But, then, October 7, 2023, horror happened, rudely disrupting the public narrative and turning it towards accountability for Israel’s largest and most serious security lapse, rescuing the hostages and wreaking vengeance on Gaza’s Hamas militia. While these issues became the national causes, their pursuance left the public opinion largely dissatisfied: the politico-military accountability was piecemeal, far too many hostages died, and their release had to be negotiated with Hamas, which is still around. 

Similarly, although the war against Hezbollah has greatly enfeebled it, the Lebanese militia still retains the capacity to threaten citizens living in northern Israel.  Two intensive wars against Iran, widely regarded as an existential enemy, had the Israelis under threat from Iranian missiles and drones for months – much longer than any war in their history. As if all this mass-trauma was not enough, serious and public differences recently emerged between the Trump Presidency and Israeli leadership about peace with Iran and cessation of hostilities with Hezbollah. Three years of near constant wars have also meant economic hardships, social dislocation and alienation with much of the world.

These gritty experiences have left most Israelis both dazed and hardened. Long-held absolute faith in their security, intelligence systems and IDF have shown to have limits, and many durable shibboleths lie broken.  In a recent poll, 92% of Israelis believe Iran emerged as the winner after the war and deal with the US[x]. Moreover, 72.5% did not believe PM Netanyahu’s assertion that Israel achieved significant gains and removed an existential threat, and 56.4% rating his management of the war as “failed” or “poor.” Just 26.5% considered the premier’s management of the offensive “good” or “excellent,” and 17.1% considered it “fair.”  Although there is a growing realisation of the inevitability of political solutions to these conflicts, the popular constituency needed to pursue such a strategy is almost absent.

As Israeli society ruminates over the recent turbulence, a profound churn seems to be underway. While right-wing nationalism is still the default popular position, the electorate has not yet indicated its party preferences. The war-toughened Israeli public currently accords priority to issues such as trust in leadership, national security (nearly 61% favour continued operations against Hezbollah despite the US Pressure), and socio-political equity. There is evidence of anti-incumbency with large sections dissatisfied about the perceived mismanagement of major politico-military crises over the past three years.  Some seek new blood at the top to move away from past excessive reliance on muscular solutions, particularly now as Washington’s defence umbrella and diplomatic cover can no longer be taken as a given. While PM Netanyahu’s approval rating has shrivelled to 35%, he is a political Houdini who is still the man to beat at the next Knesset election.  He is formidably adept at the shenanigans accompanying the Knesset elections, which have as much to do with public mandate as with horse-trading to somehow cobble a majority. But then, four months to the elections is a very long time in personality-driven Israeli politics as it heads into uncharted territories. A lot would depend on the evolution of the ground situation and how the politicians on public notice scurry.