I Overview
Pakistan
Political Situation
Economy
Army
Terrorism
Pakistan-China
Pakistan-India
Afghanistan
Human Rights Situation
Presence of Terror Groups
Afghanistan-Pakistan
Afghanistan-China
Afghanistan-Iran
Afghanistan-Uzbekistan
Afghanistan-UAE
II Developments in Pakistan
Political Situation
The political situation remained fraught with no end in sight to the sharp political polarisation.
PML(N), the lead partner in the governing coalition, continued to struggle on multiple fronts. It filed a review petition in the Supreme Court against its earlier split judgment to restore to PTI the reserved seats in the National Assembly that it had been deprived of by the Election Commission. However, it failed to get any immediate relief as Chief Justice Qazi Faiz Isa (he is scheduled to retire in October this year), who was among the judges dissenting against the above judgment, did not succeed in listing the case for an early hearing due to opposition of some of his own colleagues. This was yet another indicator of continued divisions within the court. PPP too filed a similar review petition in the Supreme Court. In early August, the government bulldozed a law through both houses of the Parliament to circumvent the above Supreme Court judgment. PTI vowed to challenge it in the Supreme Court.
Pakistan’s security establishment continued to target the judges of the superior judiciary, who had refused to obey its diktats while giving their decisions. In a veiled attempt to influence the judiciary, the DG of the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) said that if the country’s judicial system did not take the planners and facilitators of May 9, 2023 anti-army violence to task, mob mentality, fascism and anarchy would spread to the detriment of Pakistan. In a separate statement, the DG said that not enough was being done against “digital terrorism” under the law. His reference was to the social media campaign against the army-led establishment by PTI and some other groups. Chief Justice Qazi Faiz Isa was reported to have remarked that“generals and bureaucrats” were running the country.
PTI leader Imran Khan remained incarcerated. Following his acquittal in one of the main cases against him and his wife, he was rearrested in several other cases. A move to ban PTI, announced by the government, most likely with the approval of or on the demand of the army, found little support among its coalition partners and other major parties. PTI too reacted strongly, saying that such a move would not be a child’s play. The US State Department expressed concern at it. Faced with this situation, PML(N) vowed to consult its allies. No ban order has been issued so far.
Economy
Economic uncertainty persisted in Pakistan. The IMF Executive Board is yet to approve a staff level agreement with Pakistan for a 37-month Extended Fund Facility of about US$ 7 billion that had been reached earlier. The main reason holding up the approval is Pakistan’s inability so far to secure re-profiling of debt by its major creditors, notably China. IMF wants clarity on Pakistan’s external sector needs before giving the final nod to the above facility. These needs are onerous. Thus, the Governor of Pakistan’s central bank said that Pakistan would have to repay foreign loans of $26.2 billion during the current financial year. Accordingly, Pakistan was reported to be seeking reprofiling of debt of around $ 27 billion owed to China, Saudi Arabia and UAE. Pakistan’s Finance and Energy Ministers visited China to make a formal request for re-profiling. As per media reports, they inter alia requested for an eight year extension to repay the energy debt due to Chinese power producers, converting US Dollar based interest payments to the Chinese currency and reducing the overall interest rates for the Chinese funded projects, both within and outside the framework of the CPEC. Earlier, the Chinese companies had ruled out the possibility of renegotiating power purchase contracts concluded with the Pakistan government. There was no clarity on the Chinese response to the above requests. According to media reports, the Chinese did not take kindly to the request for re-profiling of debt made under IMF pressure. The Pakistan Finance Minister acknowledged that the Chinese authorities had asked Pakistan to hold discussions with the project sponsors of the Chinese power producers regarding re-profiling of the debt owed to them. He added that the government would accordingly start talks with the project sponsors, especially the People’s Bank of China. This could be a time consuming process. Not having made much progress with China, the government was reported to be trying to get some relief from its major creditors in the Arab world.
In the meanwhile, economic hardship and increased taxes continued to fuel unrest in the country. Traders observed a strike to add to the unrest among the salaried class.
The above gloomy economic scenario seems even more ominous in the context of the recent disclosure that Pakistan’s population growth rate at around 2.55% is the highest in Asia. The growing youth bulge requires a robust economy to provide economic opportunities to them. In its current state, the country’s economy is scarcely equipped to meet this challenge.
In a surprise development in the backdrop of the above gloomy picture, the rating agency Moody’s upgraded Pakistan’s local and foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings to Caa2 from Caa3 and attributed the upgrade to Pakistan’s moderately better government liquidity and external positions from very weak levels. In doing so, it took note, inter alia, of the staff level agreement with the IMF. The agency also changed Pakistan’s rating to positive from negative, adding that it reflected a balance of risks “skewed to the upside”. However, it cautioned that there remained an uncertainty around the government’s ability to sustain economic reforms implementation. It cautioned that the rating would be downgraded if there was an increase in the external vulnerability risks.
Army
The army announced that former DG ISI Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed had been taken into military custody and the process of his court martial had been initiated in connection with a housing scheme scandal. The developer of the housing scheme had alleged that in 2017, his office and residence were raided by the Pakistani rangers and officials of the ISI on the pretext of a terrorism case against him and they took away valuables, including gold and diamond ornaments and cash. Subsequently, Faiz Hameed, who was posted in the ISI then, offered to help him in resolving the matter and return the valuables except for gold and cash. On a complaint filed by the developer, the Supreme Court had ruled that the matter needed to be enquired into by the concerned authorities. The arrest was hailed by parties in the ruling coalition, who had been at the receiving end of the actions of Faiz Hameed, known to be close to Imran Khan, during his days in theISI. The army further stated that in addition to the above case, multiple instances of violation of the Pakistan Army Act post-retirement had also been established against Hameed and three more retired officers had been taken into custody. The latter allegations seem to pertain to the discontent sought to be fomented against the army chief Asim Munir by some disgruntled serving and retired army officers.
Though Hameed’s arrest caused a good deal of sensation, it was essentially a case of intra-army rivalry, the well-known bad blood between Asim Munir and Hameed and Munir’s continuous campaign to quash dissent and consolidate his own position. The arrest has no implications for the skewed civil-military imbalance in Pakistan. It needs to be recalled that judicial attempts in the past to haul up top retired Generals in corruption cases and for actions in violation of the constitution have gone nowhere in the face of resistance of the army.
Army Chief Asim Munir continued with a strong-arm approach against his opponents and dissidents. He alleged a foreign hand behind those carrying out social media campaign against the army, describing it as digital terrorism. A number of PTI activists and other social media activists have been detained and face charges of ‘digital terrorism’. The government issued an order, authorising officers of ISI to intercept and trace the communications of any citizen in the interest of national security. This legalises a practice that ISI has followed all along.
Terrorism
Pakistan continued to reel under multiple terror attacks inits Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. There was no clarity on the anti-terror operation Azm-e-Istehkam announced in June that had run into problems with most political parties, forcing the government to say that political consensus would be built on it. There was strong opposition to the operation in the PTI ruled Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Serious unrest rocked Gwadar, where protests for the rights of the Baloch under the leadership of the Balochistan Yakjehti (unity) Council turned violent following use of force by the authorities.
In a serious turn of events, violence spiked sharply in Balochistan towards the end of August. Over 70 persons were killed in multiple attacks targeting civilians and security forces. Gunmen killed passengers after dragging them off buses, cars and trucks and checking their identity (Punjabis were targeted), a railway bridge was blown up and a police station attacked.There were other reports of shootings. Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA)claimed the responsibility for the attacks. The multiple, co-ordinated terror attacks were in contrast to small scale assaults on security forces and installations in the past. Some analysts have described these attacks as evolution of the hitherto low level conflict in Balochistan to a full blown insurgency. Balochistan has seen much worse in the past. There was a time only about a decade ago, when the authorities did not have full control even in the capital city of Quetta. However, the multiple attacks show a level of sophistication in orchestrating violence not seen earlier. Therefore, things could worsen, more so if, as expected, the authorities continue to depend solely on use of force to control the situation.
Pakistan-China
ML-1 project, involving upgradation of the rail network fromKarachi to Peshawar, is one of the CPEC projects, expected to cost around $7billion. However, it has not taken off the ground because of financing problems. In yet another sign of lack of a practical approach, even as Pakistanis struggling to get the existing Chinese debt re-profiled, the government approved the first phase of ML-1 project, costing $3.3 billion, from Karachi to Multan. The Chinese have so far committed only about a billion dollars for the Karachi-Hyderabad stretch. It was not clear where the rest of the money would come from. The government also relaxed bidding rules to award a $2 billion contract to China for construction of the 241 KM Thakot-Raikot section of the Karakoram Highway. Pak media reports stated that China would give $2 billion loan for the project.
Commenting on a reported statement of Donald Lu, the US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs that China is the past in terms of investment (in Pakistan) and US is the future, the spokesperson of the Pakistan Foreign Office said that for Pakistan relations with both the US and China are important. She added that Pakistan does not believe in situations where relationship with one country can be sacrificed on the altar of relations with the other. General Li Qiaoming, commander of PLA Ground Forces visited Pakistan and called on PM Shehbaz Sharif, besides holding discussions with his Pakistani counterpart.
Pakistan-India
Pakistan observed August 5, the day the special status of Jammu and Kashmir was revoked by India, as Youm-e-Istehsal (Exploitation Day).Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called upon India to move from “dispute denial to dispute resolution” in the interest of lasting peace. The Pakistan NationalAssembly passed a resolution rejecting the Indian move. The above step byPakistan was yet another sign of its impractical and counterproductive approach to relations with India.
Pakistan has sent an invitation to Prime Minister NarendraModi for the Council of Heads of Government meeting of the SCO countries that is to take place in Islamabad on October 15 and 16. Commenting on the media speculation that the Indian Prime Minister might not attend the meeting, the Spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs advised against it.
Speaking at a book launch, External Affairs Minister S.Jaishankar said that the “era of uninterrupted dialogue with Pakistan” is over.Perhaps with an eye on Pakistan’s demand to reverse India’s article 370 move, he said that it was done (final). He added that India was not passive and whether events take a positive or a negative turn, either way India would react to them.
III Developments in Afghanistan
Human Rights Situation
Hardliners in Afghanistan continued to hold sway in so far as demands of the international community to improve the human rights situation, particularly of women and girls, are concerned. In a gesture of defiance, the Taliban government barred the entry of Richard Bennett, the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights, into Afghanistan. They accused him of spreading “propaganda”.
The Taliban government enacted a Vice and Virtue Law which requires the Ministry of Justice to command good and forbid the evil in accordance with Sharia and Hanafi jurisprudence. It, inter alia, requires women to cover their face and entire body in order not to cause temptation and not talk in loud voice. Drivers are prohibited from transporting adult women without a legal male guardian. It also forbids use of typewriters, radios and other means of disseminating information against Sharia or religion. The Spokesperson of the UN Secretary General said that the law would make envisioning a better future and development ofAfghanistan even more difficult.
The Taliban Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue andPrevention of Vice said that it would no longer cooperate with UNAMA, accusing it of constantly spreading “false propaganda”.
Presence of Terror Groups
According to the 15th report of the ISIL (Daesh)and al-Qaeda/Taliban Monitoring Team to the UNSC, TTP is now the largest terrorist group in Afghanistan and it enjoys operational and logistical support from the Afghan Taliban and factions of the al-Qaeda network. The report estimates the strength of TTP at around 6000-6500 fighters. Speaking of IS-K, the report notes the Afghan Taliban’s success against it, but also highlights glaring gaps. It adds that while the Taliban assert that there are no foreign terrorist groups in Afghanistan other than IS-K, member states reported that over two dozen groups still operate in the country, enjoying freedom of manoeuvre under the Taliban authorities, with oversight from their General Directorate ofIntelligence.
Pakistan-Afghanistan
The spokesperson of the Pakistan Foreign Office said that the authorities would consider a plan to expel hundreds of thousands more Afghans who have been living in the country for years. She added that the plan was still in the works. It would be recalled that Pakistan had earlier expelled a large number of Afghans living in the country illegally. The second phase being planned now will cover those who had been given identification documents to legalize their stay in Pakistan for a limited period.
Pakistan continued to demand that the Taliban take immediate and effective action against the TTP cadres operating from the Afghan territory. However, the Taliban maintained that instead of blaming other countries, Pakistan should ensure its own security.
The Chaman border between Pakistan and Afghanistan re opened after a 10-month closure due to an agitation against Pakistan’s stringent requirements for travel across it. A representative of the Chaman residents, whose protest had led to the border closure, said that all their demands had been accepted, leaders of the agitators had been released and people could travel across the border using their identity cards as before.
In a report, Tolo News of Afghanistan quoted local traders as saying that there has been a significant drop in trade to Afghanistan via the Karachi port. An official of the Nangarhar Chamber of Commerce and Investment said that the number of containers for Afghanistan via Karachi has dropped from about three thousand a month earlier to around seven to eight hundred now. The sharp drop was attributed to restrictions imposed by Pakistan.
Afghanistan-China
The Taliban Minister of Mines and Petroleum met the Chinese Ambassador in Kabul and stressed the need to accelerate the Mes Aynak copper and Amu Darya basin oil projects. It would be recalled that the state-owned China Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC) had won the copper mine contract in2007, but work has remained stalled largely due to security reasons. Subsequently, it was reported in late July that the Taliban officials along with Chinese businessmen and diplomats carried out the ribbon cutting ceremony as work began on a road to the mining site. The Taliban officials said that it would likely be at least two years before the first copper was extracted by MCC.
The International Road Transport Union has announced the activation of a new trade route between Kashgar in China and Kabul. The first truck was reported to have departed from Kashgar and reached Kabul after crossing over through the Khunjerab border into Pakistan. The Taliban Minister of Rural Rehabilitation and Development claimed that the construction work on the Wakhan-China road will be completed before the onset of winter.
Afghanistan-Iran
Abdul Kabir, the Political Deputy of the Taliban Prime Minister, participated in the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian.
A senior commander of the Iranian army told his country’s media that 330 Kilometres of the border closure project on Iran’s eastern border with Afghanistan will be completed by the end of this year. He added that this was to ensure security within Iran. Hamdullah Fetrat, the deputy spokesperson of the Taliban said that Iran was implementing this project within its territory with the agreement and coordination of Afghanistan. This is in sharp contrast to the Taliban opposition to border fencing by Pakistan on the Durand Line.
Afghanistan-Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan Prime Minister Abdulla Nigamtovich Aripov visited Afghanistan and the Taliban announced that 35 investment, trade and mining agreements worth $2.5 billion were signed during the visit. An exhibition ofUzbek products was held in Kabul at the same time. It would be recalled that about a year ago, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan had signed a tripartite agreement for a 760 kilometre rail line from Termez in Uzbekistan via Mazar-e-Sharif in Afghanistan to Kharlachi in the Kurram district of Pakistan. These are all grand plans, which may not be easy to implement due to financial constraints and the security situation. However, the agreements signed during the Uzbek Prime Minister’s visit were a signal of the close relations that his country is trying to forge with the Taliban like Russia and other Central Asian countries. During his visit, Aripov informed his interlocutors that a positive decision had been taken regarding stationing of an Ambassador by Afghanistan in Tashkent. Subsequently, the Taliban named an Ambassador to Uzbekistan.
Afghanistan-UAE
The Taliban Prime Minister Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund paid a visit to the UAE and met the UAE President Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan. TheTaliban stated that the visit was for medical check-up. It would be recalled that earlier the Taliban InteriorMinister Sirajuddin Haqqani too had visited UAE and met President Zayed Al Nahyan. It was reported subsequently by the Taliban that the UAE had accepted the credentials of their ambassador.
The previous issues of Af-Pak Digest are available here: LINK
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(The views expressed are personal)
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