I Overview
Pakistan
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Political Developments
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Economy
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Terrorism
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Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa
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Pakistan-USA
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Pakistan-India
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Pakistan-Russia
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Pakistan-China
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Pakistan-Malaysia
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Pakistan-Bangladesh
Afghanistan
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Terrorism
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Discussions on Afghanistan in the UN System
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Afghanistan-Pakistan
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Afghanistan-Russia
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TAPI Project
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Afghanistan-China
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Afghanistan-Iran
II Developments in Pakistan
Political Developments
With the retirement of the pro-government, anti-Imran Khan Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Qazi Faiz Isa, due in October, the Shehbaz Sharif government went into an over drive to clip the wings of the judiciary.The government did not like the prospect of elevation of the next senior most judge, Justice Mansoor Ali Shah, to the post of Chief Justice on the basis of the principle of seniority, particularly since he was among the judges who had given the majority ruling in favour of PTI’s claim to reserved seats in the National Assembly. The government opposed this ruling and the Speaker of the National Assembly said that it could not be implemented. The outgoing Chief Justice questioned the reiteration of the majority ruling by the judges concerned in response to a clarification sought by the Election Commission. One of the last official acts of Chief Justice Faiz Isa was to order that implementation of the reserved seats ruling was not binding on the executive. These developments were indicative of deep divisions within the judiciary, which the government set about to exploit to curb judicial powers.
After the government attempt to increase the retirement age of judges to retain Faiz Isa did not fly, it floated a constitutional amendment which, inter alia, comprised setting up of a Constitutional Court with judges appointed predominantly by the executive to take over some important functions of the Supreme Court. It took the government some time to garner the necessary majority for the amendment in Parliament, which finally became possible with JUI (F) of Maulana Fazlur Rehman, a political wheeler-dealer, flipping in its favour and the government securing support of some in the PTI ranks, even though PTI opposed the move. The government could not muster enough support to set up a Constitutional Court, but the 26th amendment passed by the Parliament has made some far reaching changes concerning the judiciary. To begin with, instead of appointing the senior most Supreme Court judge as the Chief Justice, the selection will be made from the three senior most judges by a Parliamentary Committee that will have majority from the ruling party/coalition. The Chief Justice will have a fixed tenure of three years or till attaining the age of 65, whichever is earlier. The Supreme Court has been barred from exercising suo motu jurisdiction except in specified cases. No court or tribunal can enquire into the advice tendered by the Prime Minister or the Cabinet to the President. The Judicial Commission for appointment of judges in the superior judiciary has been reconstituted to give a decisive say to the government of the day in the matter. Besides recommending appointment of judges, the Commission will also conduct annual performance evaluation of high court judges. Instead of the Chief Justice constituting constitutional benches of the Supreme Court to exercise its original or appellate jurisdiction incases involving constitutionality of laws and to render advice under the Court’s advisory function, such benches will now be constituted by the Judicial Commission. Subsequently, the government also hustled a legislation through the Parliament to increase the number of Supreme Court judges from 18 to 34 and curtail further the powers of the Chief Justice. The increased number will enable the government to pack the Court with its loyalists. The 26th amendment has been challenged in the Supreme Court and in a sign of continued divisions within the judiciary, two senior most judges have called upon the Chief Justice to fix the matter before the full court.
The newly constituted Parliamentary Committee selected the third senior most judge, Justice Yahya Afridi to take over as Chief Justice upon retirement of Faiz Isa on October 25. He had given a dissenting note in the PTI reserved seats case.
PTI continued its agitation against the government. In spite of the restrictions imposed by the authorities, it was able to organise a rally with an impressive number of people in Islamabad in September. Its leaders, inter alia, demanded release of Imran Khan. PTI again sought to organise a rally in Islamabad in October around the time of the SCO Heads of Government meeting. The government called in the army to help the civilian administration in maintaining law and order both in Islamabad and Lahore. A large crowd, led by the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur, which was marching towards the capital, clashed with the law enforcement agencies. Finally, in what appeared to be a deal with the authorities, Gandapur was allowed to come to Islamabad. However, instead of addressing a rally, he spent some time in the Kyber-Pakhtunkhwa house and went back to Peshawar. A show down just before the SCO meeting was thus averted. Imran Khan’s wife Bushra Bibi was released from detention as she had got bail in the cases against her. In the past, the government had continued her detention by registering fresh cases each time she was granted bail in an existing case. This gave rise to speculation of a deal between Imran Khan and the establishment, though there were no further signs of such a deal.
The army chief continued to have a key voice in governance of the country, including economic affairs. Thus, he had a well-publicised meeting with the business community in Karachi, where he assured them, inter alia, of industrial electricity tariff cuts and repair of roads in the industrial area. In yet another indicator of his authority in economic matters, the daily Express Tribune reported that theGerman Ambassador had written to the COAS to help renegotiate the terms of termination of the contract of Siemens concerning an independent power company.The story was later deleted by the newspaper from its website, perhaps under pressure from the army. In another development, Lt. Gen. Muhammad Asim Malik, serving as Adjutant General at the Army Headquarters was appointed DG ISI.
In a significant development, the government has rushed through the Parliament a legislation to enhance the tenure of the three armed forces chiefs from the current 3 to 5years. Their reappointments and extensions, if any, granted by the government would also now be for 5 years instead of 3 earlier. This measure will enable army chief Asim Munir, who would have completed his tenure in November 2025, to stay on at least till November 2027 even if he is given no further extension.
Economy
After a suspenseful wait, the IMF Executive Board approved the 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of about $7 billion for Pakistan as well as release of the first tranche of about $1 billion. The Fund said that the new programme will require sound policies and reforms to support the authorities’ ongoing efforts to strengthen macroeconomic stability, address deep structural challenges and create conditions for a stronger, more inclusive and resilient growth. It further stated that continued strong financial support from Pakistan’s development and bilateral partners will also be critical. Among the positives, the Fund noted rebounding of growth to over 2%, inflation falling to single digits, appropriately tight fiscal and monetary policies, a contained current account, calm foreign exchange market conditions, increase in FE reserves and a cut in policy rate by the State Bank of Pakistan. However, it also noted several formidable vulnerabilities: a difficult business environment, weak governance, outsized role of the state in economy, a narrow tax base and insufficient expenditure on health and education.
Doubts continued to be expressed about Pakistan’s ability to carry through the above EFF programme, particularly since in the past, all but one programmes of IMF with Pakistan have been abandoned mid-stream. The government was said to be widening the tax base by, inter alia, bringing in hitherto exempted agricultural income. It also emphasised privatisation of loss making state owned enterprises, though the starting point, viz. privatisation of PIA ran into trouble when only one low bid was received from a real estate company having retired senior army officers in its higher echelons. It was also reported that fall in inflation was because of a significant drop in demand due to the government’s austerity measures. In view of its past experience with Pakistan, the IMF was reported to have front loaded its conditions in the EFF, which may make things difficult for the Pakistan government. The dilemma faced by the Fund in approving the programme entered into with Pakistan was clear from one of its reports, where it was stated that the lender had risked its reputation by extending the $7 billion bailout package, as any decision to lend or not to lend carries risks due to chances of the programme going off track. According to the report, Pakistan’s overall risk of sovereign stress was high, reflecting a high level vulnerability from elevated debt, gross financing needs and low reserves. It stated that reputational risks would arise if the fund were perceived as treating Pakistan differently from other members. Alternatively, not approving a new programme could also raise reputational risks as the national authorities might accuse the Fund of not being even handed, especially following the successful conclusion of the recent 9-month Standby Arrangement. According to a report in the Pak daily Express Tribune, within a month of approval of the programme, the authorities face problems that could either require renegotiating the programme conditions or suffocating the economy further through more taxes. The IMF was reported to have asked for additional revenue measures following the Pakistan government falling short of the revenue target for the first four months of the current fiscal year. Inspite of announcements concerning investment agreements with other countries from time to time, no significant foreign investment seems to be coming to Pakistan. In the meanwhile, Pakistan continued to borrow and was reported to have sought a loan of $1.4 billion from China.
Terrorism
Pakistan continued to be rocked by terror attacks mainly in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Amongst the more serious attacks, two Chinese engineers working in a power plant were killed in an explosion near theKarachi airport and the attack was claimed by the Majeed Brigade of the Balochistan Liberation Army. A policeman was killed when a convoy of diplomats in Swat was hit by a roadside explosion. At least 20 miners were killed in an armed attack on a private coal mine in Balochistan’s Duki area. The victims reportedly belonged to various parts of Pakistan as well as Afghanistan.
Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Resentment against the Pakistani establishment continued to brew in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). Akhtar Mengal, the head of the Balochistan National Party- M resigned from the National Assembly, citing lack of freedom in parliament and apathy of the lawmakers towards the insecurity faced by the people of Balochistan. He refused to retract the resignation in spite of attempts by the government to persuade him to do so.
Faced with a jirga in KPK to discuss the problems faced by the local populace, including frequent terror attacks, the federal government imposed a ban on the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM), which has remained in the Pakistan establishment’s crosshairs for the last few years, under the Anti-Terrorism Act. The ban was condemned by PTI which rules KPK. The three-day PTM jirga was to take place from October 11 to 13. On October 10, theKPK CM, Ali Amin Gandapur held a meeting at his residence which was attended by the federal Interior Minister, the KPK governor and representatives of various political parties. The meeting, dubbed a Grand Jirga, authorised Gandapur to hold negotiations with dissenting parties to find amicable solutions to the political and security problems of the province. In a conciliatory gesture, thePTM jirga was permitted to go ahead. It adopted a 22-point resolution which, inter alia, demands the Pakistan military forces and all militant groups to vacate the province in two months. It threatened that if this did not happen, the jirga will decide how to achieve this goal. The other significant demands were:Transmission of affordable and consistent electricity to the province, action against land grabbers, collection of data on resources of the ‘Pakhtun land’,opening of the border with Afghanistan for visa-free travel and permission for trade with Afghanistan along the trade routes from Chaman to Dir. The KPK Governor and CM were present at the jirga and CM Gandapur said that the resolution of demands passed by it would be passed by the provincial assembly as well. The last minute joint action by the federal and the provincial governments seems to have averted an explosive situation that seemed to be developing after the ban on PTM. However, the demands presented by the PTM jirga will continue to pose a challenge for the federal government.
Pakistan-USA
Speaking of the terror attacks in Pakistan, the US StateDepartment Spokesperson said that his country would continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with Pakistan in its fight against terrorism.
In a separate move, the US Administration imposed sanctions on a Chinese research institute and several companies for their involvement in supplies for Pakistan’s missiles programme. The Pakistan Foreign Office described the sanctions as biased and politically motivated and accused the US of “double standards” in supplying advanced military technology to some other countries.
Pakistan-India
India issued a second notice to Pakistan for “review and modification” of the Indus Waters Treaty. The first such notice had been issued in January 2023, but there seems to have been no progress on the matter.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif raked up Jammu and Kashmir in his speech at the UNGA and indulged in Pakistan’s familiar anti-India rhetoric.External Affairs Minister (EAM) Jaishankar responded suitably to Shehbaz’s diatribe.
EAM Jaishankar represented India at the SCO Heads of Government meeting held in Islamabad in October. Before going to Islamabad, he clarified that he was going for the SCO meeting and not for bilateral discussions. There were media reports of some informal exchanges between the two sides on the margins of the SCO meeting. However, no progress on bilateral relations was reported. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif spoke to the visiting Indian journalists about the need to improve relations between the two countries.
India and Pakistan agreed to extend the arrangements connected to the Kartarpur corridor for another five years.
Pakistan-Russia
The Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexei Overchuk, paid a two-day visit to Pakistan in September. The two countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding for expansion of cooperation in multiple sectors, including trade, energy, connectivity and defence. PM Shehbaz Sharif said that Pakistan attaches importance to consolidating relations with Russia.
A Russian parliamentary delegation, led by the RussianFederation Council Speaker also visited Pakistan and an MOU was signed between the parliaments of the two countries. According to Pakistani media reports, the Russian Speaker said that Russia treats Pakistan’s interest in deepening cooperation with BRICS with due attention and support.
The Deputy Minister of Defence of Russia, Colonel General Alexander V Fomin was also in Pakistan. During his meetings in Islamabad, including with the Army Chief, the two sides decided to boost defence and security cooperation.
Pakistan-China
The Chinese have over the years harboured serious concerns about terror from Pakistan impacting them adversely and have, in the recent years, been angry about the periodic terror attacks against their nationals inPakistan. While they are reported to have leaned heavily on Pakistan on the subject behind the scenes, they have avoided a public spat. However, in an unusual development, the Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan reacted strongly in public to Pakistan’s failure to prevent such attacks. Speaking at a seminar titled ‘China at 75’ in the presence of the Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, the Ambassador said that two deadly attacks within six months targeting Chinese nationals were unacceptable and the Pakistan government should launch a crackdown against all anti-China terrorist groups. The Ambassador’s strong remarks followed Dar’s remarks on terrorism and attacks against the Chinese. He said that President Xi cares about Chinese people’s security and puts their lives first. Therefore, each time he meets Pakistani leaders, he asks for measures to ensure the security of Chinese nationals and projects.
The Pakistan Foreign Office described the Ambassador’s strong remarks as perplexing, “especially considering the positive diplomatic traditions between Pakistan and China”.
Pakistan-Malaysia
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia paid a three-day visit to Pakistan. According to Pakistan media reports, the two countries agreed during the visit to enhance bilateral cooperation across multiple sectors including trade, investment, defence and agriculture. Ibrahim announced the opening of a Malaysian trade office in Karachi to boost trade. He also expressed his country’s interest in hiring more skilled labour from Pakistan.
Besides senior civilian functionaries, the Malaysian Prime Minister met army chief Asim Munir to discuss defence cooperation. He invited Munir to visit Malaysia.
In a joint press conference with Ibrahim, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif raked up Jammu and Kashmir. According to Pak media reports,Ibrahim affirmed Malaysia’s support for a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir issue.
Pakistan-Bangladesh
According to Pak media reports, Deputy Prime Minister andForeign Minister Ishaq Dar met the Adviser on Foreign Affairs of Bangladesh on the sidelines of the CHOGM meeting in Samoa. As per the Pakistan ForeignOffice, the two sides discussed ways and means of advancing high level dialogue and revitalisation of SAARC.
III Developments in Afghanistan
Terrorism
In spite of the relative calm established by the Taliban in Afghanistan, terror attacks continued to take place. At least six persons were killed and 13 injured in a suicide bombing in Kabul in September. In the same month, Islamic State militants killed 14 persons in a Shia area in centralAfghanistan.
Discussions on Afghanistan in the UN System
Speaking at the UN Security Council, the UNSG’s Special Representative for Afghanistan said that a number of positive steps have been taken in Afghanistan in the fields of economy and infrastructure. However, the opportunity for a positive peace is being missed as Afghanistan is ruptured from the international community. Adoption of the moral oversight law by the Taliban shortly after the Doha III meeting has undermined the process. The representatives of US and UK said that the Taliban could not expect the international community to move forward on the UN process without first meeting their obligations on rights of women and girls, political inclusion and counterterrorism. The Chinese and Russian envoys on the other hand spoke of the threats posed by IS, Al Qaeda and ETIM from Afghanistan. Russia advocated patient dialogue with the Taliban regime on a wide range of pressing problems without blackmail or pressure. Concerns were also expressed on the human rights situation in Afghanistan in the UN General Assembly. Australia, Canada, Germany and the Netherlands announced that they had initiated proceedings at the International Court of Justice against the Taliban for their contempt for women. The Taliban, however, said that all such concerns were unfounded.
The UN Human Rights Council adopted without a vote at its 57th regular session a resolution on the situation of human rights in Afghanistan.It, inter alia, extends the mandate of the Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Afghanistan for a period of one year. The Taliban rejected the concerns expressed at the session as one-sided.
The authorities in the Helmand province of Afghanistan have banned all media from showing living things to ensure compliance with theTaliban morality laws. Earlier in August, the Taliban had published laws regulating aspects of everyday life like public transportation, shaving, the media and public celebrations in keeping with their interpretation of Sharia.
Afghanistan-Pakistan
The Pakistani media reported in early September that a clash between the Pakistani and Afghan security forces at the border near Pakistan’s Kurram district had left eight Afghan soldiers dead. The Taliban on the other hand said that the clash had resulted in two killed and eleven injured on their side. Border clashes are reported to have continued for a number of days thereafter.
Asif Durrani, Pakistan’s Special Representative forAfghanistan was removed from his post on account of policy differences with the authorities. He was reported to have, inter alia, opposed mass deportation of Afghans and believed that Pakistan needed to manage its terrorism problem domestically in the foreseeable future as the Taliban were unlikely to revise their position on TTP. The army leadership, from whom he took his instructions, was reported to be unhappy with him.
The Torkham border remained closed for around two months. The Deputy Spokesman of the Taliban said that the crossing had remained closed due to a conflict between two tribes on the Pakistani side of the Durand Line. During the border closure, the Taliban Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, called upon Pakistan to avoid creating problems for Afghan traders, especially during the trading season of summer fruits and vegetables. It was reported that trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan has dropped sharply this year due to frequent closure of trade routes by Pakistan.
In the midst of agitation by PTI in Pakistan, the Taliban foreign ministry said that tensions between the government and the opposition in Pakistan had reached a worrying level and could have a negative impact on the entire region. They counselled negotiations between the two sides. Pakistan rejected the advice.
Afghanistan-Russia
Russia continued to advocate closer interaction of the international community with the Taliban government. Commenting on removal of the Taliban from the list of banned organisations by Kyrgyzstan, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that it was very important for the neighbours of Afghanistan to build relationship with the Islamic Emirate. The Special Representative of Russia for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov said in the beginning of October that Russia has already made a decision in principle to remove the Taliban from its list of banned groups, but some legal procedures were still being gone through.
The Taliban Foreign Minister attended the sixth Moscow Format meeting in Russia and called upon the regional countries to cooperate in preventing their citizens from being recruited by ISIS and sent to Afghanistan.
TAPI Project
According to reports in the Afghan media, work on the TAPI project began in Afghanistan in September in the presence of officials fromTurkmenistan and Afghanistan. The Taliban Prime Minister Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund was quoted as saying that the Afghans had been waiting for this day for years.
However, the project has been hanging fire for many years and faces several hurdles in its completion.
Afghanistan-China
The Chinese Ambassador to Afghanistan was quoted as saying in media reports that China would offer Afghanistan zero-tariff treatment in 100% tariff lines.
According to Ariana News, China resumed direct freight rail service to Afghanistan at the end of October, when a train carrying goods left Nantong city in Jiangsu province for the northern Hairatan border in the Balkh province.
Afghanistan-Iran
According to Iran media reports, the Commander-in-Chief of Iran’s law enforcement has said that 7,50,000 Afghans have already been deported from Iran this year and the number will reach two million by the end of the year. The commander of Iran’s northeastern ground forces was quoted as saying in media reports that the project to close the northeastern border of Iran with Afghanistan will be completed in three years.
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