Ananta Insights
Defence Insights Newsletter
Several ongoing conflicts have become the cradle of battlefield innovation. Ananta’s Defence Insights Newsletter brings you a wrap of security- and defence-related developments that are shaping the evolution of warfare in these times of geopolitical tension.
In this edition: what happened at the Aero India 2025 aerospace and defence exhibition; the Ukrainian military’s shift from Soviet- to Western-origin fighter aircraft platforms; a survey of submarine fleets active in the Indo-Pacific; a look at the future of US-Russia arms control; and what a new report from the Danish government says about the Russian military threat to Europe.
1. Aero India: Three decades young
The 15th edition of the Aero India show and exhibition was held between 10 and 14 February in Bengaluru. The biennial expo that was established in 1996 is one of India’s two flagship defence shows – the other is DefExpo, also a biennial event, but whose venue, unlike that of Aero India, changes from city to city.
Aero India is perhaps Asia’s most consequential aerospace and defence exhibition and networking platform for manufacturers and potential buyers in the global defence industry. It involves the participation of the Indian Air Force and all relevant government ministries and departments, as well as defence agencies such as the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and PSUs such as Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).
While Aero India has seen a consistent increase in participation by foreign and indigenous vendors, the wider benefit from the show has been the boost it has given to India’s defence ecosystem. This year’s show was attended by more than 150 foreign companies from around 30 countries. Two of the most important developments at the show were related to stealth aircraft.
- Two of the only three serial-production fifth-generation fighter aircraft, the world’s most advanced warjets, the US-made Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II and the Russian Su-57, came in close proximity at the show. Close enough that they were captured in a single frame
- DRDO unveiled a full-scale engineering model of India’s own fifth-generation fighter, currently referred to by its developmental moniker Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).
2. Ukraine’s Air Force: Western Acquisitions
After President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ugly exchange with President Donald Trump and Vice President J D Vance in the White House, European countries are expected to step up direct military assistance to Ukraine, even as US efforts to broker a peace deal with Russia continue.
Ukraine received its first non-Soviet-origin fighter jet platform, the American-built F-16, in August 2024. Zelenskyy had thanked the Dutch, the Danes, and the Americans at the time, and in early February, more F-16s from the Netherlands, as well as French Mirage aircraft arrived in Kyiv.
Fighter aircraft are critical to the Ukrainian resistance in the war that is now in its fourth year. While precise numbers are not known, it has been estimated that Ukraine could receive around 95 F-16 airframes in all, largely from NATO partner countries in Europe.
The Europeans have earlier supplied Ukraine with the French-British SCALP/Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles. France is believed to have 26 Mirage 2000 airframes left in its inventory after having slowly phased out these aircraft in favour of the more advanced Rafales – the bulk of those could be transferred to Ukraine.
Depending on how the situation evolves, Ukraine could also receive a small number of Eurofighter Typhoons and Saab Gripens from countries such as Germany and Sweden.
3. Subsurface combatants: Fleets in the Indo-Pacific
With rising geopolitical stakes and periodic tensions in the Indo-Pacific, submarine fleets have become an important aspect of strategic competition in the region. From Beijing’s expanding blue-water ambitions to Australia’s intriguing AUKUS-driven transition to nuclear submarines, significant developments are underway undersea.
China: Ambition in numbers
The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has the largest submarine fleet in the region. An estimated 65 boats are likely to be in service by the end of 2025, according to the nonprofit security research organisation NTI.
PLAN maintains both nuclear powered and conventional diesel electric submarines, which gives it operational flexibility and opportunities to optimise for cost and mission profiles.
The Chinese fleet includes Type 093 (Shang class) nuclear attack submarines and Type 094 (Jin class) nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines, with newer Type 095 nuclear powered attack submarines(SSN)s and Type 096 nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines(SSBN)s expected to enter service in the coming years. At least half of Chinese diesel-electric attack submarines (SSKs) in service are Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) capable, which gives them greater submerged operational endurance. China’s long-term goal is a fleet of more than 80 submarines, which underlines its ambitions of regional sea control and second-strike capabilities against peer competitors and near-peer powers such as the US, Russia, and India.
US: Maintaining Strategic Deterrence
The first boat of the US Navy’s in-service Ohio class SSBN platform is scheduled for decommissioning in 2027, and the entire fleet of 14 will be replaced gradually by 12 newer Columbia class boats, according to estimates by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
More than 50 attack submarines (SSNs and SSGNs – which can also fire cruise missiles) of the Los Angeles, Virginia, and Seawolf classes are currently operational. The Los Angeles class boats will be gradually replaced with newer blocks of Virginia class submarines.
The US Navy is severely constrained by shipyard capacity, which has led to a short-term focus on maintaining a minimum credible force level to deter peer and near-peer adversaries.
India: Deterrence growing, slowly
The modernisation of India’s submarine force is proceeding at a pace that is slower than that of its competitors.
India’s current in-service fleet includes two Arihant class SSBNs, with a third expected to be operational soon and two more under construction.
Delivery of a Russian Akula class SSN on a 10-year lease has been delayed by the war in Ukraine. India has cleared the construction of a new class of indigenous SSNs, but the first of these boats is unlikely to enter service before the late 2030s in the best-case scenario.
Sixteen diesel electric attack submarines (same as SSKs) are in service currently,
comprising the newest French origin Kalvari class (Scorpène), Russian origin Kilo class, and German Type 209 “Shishumar” boats.
India’s long-term vision is likely to be a mixed SSK-SSN-SSBN force, with increased investment in indigenous construction.
Japan: Edge in battery technology
Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) operates one of the most advanced non-nuclear submarine fleets in the Indo-Pacific. Twenty two SSKs are in service, including Soryu- and Taigei-class boats with advanced AIP and lithium-ion batteries that give them the longest submerged endurance among all conventional diesel electric submarines in the world. Japan aims to maintain a steady force capable of deterring PLAN and North Korean Navy submarine fleets.
Australia: Refits before AUKUS
The current fleet of six Collins class conventional diesel electric submarines is due for life extension refits Under the AUKUS agreement, Australia will receive at least three Virginia-class SSNs from the US, followed by the construction of SSN-AUKUS submarines, co-developed with the UK. The transition to nuclear-powered submarines will significantly extend Australia’s operational range and deterrent capability, but the timeline extends well into the 2040s.
South Korea: Focused on the North
Despite its blue water capability, South Korea’s submarine force is designed mostly for strategic deterrence against North Korea. Eighteen SSKs and three SSGNs are in service with the South Korean navy.
North Korea: Uniquely ingenious
The regime in Pyongyang runs an ingenious subsurface fleet that punches above its weight in the context of international sanctions. On paper, the North Koreans have a fleet of nearly 84 boats, mostly geared towards coastal defence. In recent years, it has reportedly re-engineered two old conventional attack submarines to provide them with the capability of firing ballistic missiles.
4. End of New START: Strategic Uncertainty Ahead
With the scheduled expiration of the New START treaty in 2026, there are fears of a potential new arms race. New START, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia, has provided critical guardrails to nuclear expansion, capping deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 per side, and imposing verification mechanisms to ensure compliance. In the absence of a successor agreement, there is risk of an unconstrained buildup of nuclear weapons, along with destabilizing doctrines and proliferation. President Trump’s vision of a “Golden Dome” missile defence system for America complicates the prospects of future arms control negotiations with Russia, and reinforces the illusion that missile defence can provide absolute security in an era of hypersonic glide vehicles and cruise missiles.
Previous arms control agreements such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, and New START helped prevent unrestrained nuclear competition. The US withdrew from the INF Treaty (1987-2019) and the President Trump’s vision of a Open Skies Treaty (1992-2020) during Trump’s first term in the White House. Strains in the relationship between Moscow and Washington under the Joe Biden administration were exacerbated by the Ukraine war. While arms control dialogues have continued sporadically, the innate unpredictability of President Trump and the apparent ongoing reset of US-Europe and US-Russia relationships makes it difficult to imagine the path ahead.
5. Other Developments: Looking Forward
Russia’s plans for NATO
A new Danish military intelligence assessment report estimates that Russia will start reconstituting its forces for a wider war with NATO the moment a cessation to the conflict in Ukraine takes hold. ‘Intelligence Outlook 2024’, prepared by the Danish Defence Intelligence Service, was released in December, before President Trump took over and began the current US intervention to bring the war to an end. The rough timeline estimated by Denmark for this reconstitution of Russian forces is around five years. However, it would seem unlikely that Russia could raise its military capabilities to the level of the Soviet Union during its peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
Russian presence in Syria
The new Syrian regime headed by Ahmad al-Sharaa has been engaging diplomatically with many camps and partners. Al-Sharaa has appealed to Moscow to hand over Bashar al-Assad, whose regime he toppled in the Syrian Civil War; at the same time, his Defence Minister has said that Russia, one of Assad’s chief patrons, could keep its two key military bases in the country, Tartus and Khmeimim.
Check these out:
- Trump wants a nuclear deal. Can he be the ultimate negotiator? – The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
- Why French Nuclear Weapons are not a perfect nuclear umbrella for Europe – A thread on X by UNIDIR expert Pavel Podvig
- Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence publishes rare footage of a third drone interception
- Undersea nuclear forces: Survivability of Chinese, Russian, and US SSBNS – Journal of Strategic Studies
- Naval Group charges rival ThyssenKrupp with selling out submarine tech – Naval News
- UK navy mistook farting whale for phantom Russians trying to track their nuclear subs:report – New York Post
- North Korean troops in Russia are learning modern drone warfare tactics: Seoul – NK News
Thank you for reading Ananta’s Defence Insights Newsletter. Stay tuned for our next edition.
