Ananta Insights
Indo-Pacific Newsletter
Welcome to the latest edition of the Ananta Indo-Pacific newsletter!
We delve into the next steps taken by India and China after the Kazan summit between the two leaders to stabilise ties, including concrete steps the two Foreign Ministers discussed in their Rio de Janeiro meet in November. In the Indo-Pacific region as Beijing stepped up its belligerence vis a vis Taiwan and Philippines, the US took its defence partnership with Manila a notch up.
Japan simultaneously hosted a meet of Five Eyes to discuss evolving international security environment and engaged in trilateral exercise with the US and Australia. China, meanwhile, has reportedly developed electronic warfare capability that can pose a significant challenge, per a report presented to US Congress. In Southeast Asia, new Indonesian President Prabowo’s pro-active foreign policy approach has caught the attention of world capitals.
Stability in India-China ties?
Amid thaw in ties between Beijing and New Delhi and as part of efforts to stabilise ties, on the table are resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra after a gap of almost five years, restarting direct flights, data sharing of common rivers, and media exchanges. This is the fifth consecutive year since 2020 when both official routes for the holy Kailash Mansarovar Yatra remained closed for Indians. The private route through Nepal, opened last year by China, is unavailable for Indians for practical reasons given Beijing’s tough rules.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Brazil capital Rio, where they discussed next steps in India-China relations after the completion of the disengagement process at the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Jaishakar told Wang Yi New Delhi is strongly committed to a multipolar world, including a multipolar Asia. He also asserted India’s foreign policy has been principled and consistent, and that it rejects unilateral approaches to establish dominance; India does not view its relationships through the prism of other nations.
Beijing’s e-war capacity
China’s electronic warfare ability would present “a significant challenge” to the US in the event of a conflict on the Taiwan Strait, according to a report to the US Congress. The report published by US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) on November 19 said the People’s Liberation Army had developed “substantial” electronic warfare capabilities to “detect, target, and disrupt” US military and its partners operating in the Indo-Pacific region. According to the report, China has developed electronic warfare capabilities that could ”disrupt data links and communications US and allied forces need to operate during conflict”.
China’s migrant workers challenge
Beijing is intensifying its efforts to address delayed payments to migrant workers and safeguard the interests of the country’s grassroots workforce, with a focus on maintaining social stability amid a challenging economic environment. Mid-November, the State Council, China’s cabinet, convened to advance an action plan targeting wage arrears for migrant workers, following the launch of a dedicated three-month campaign on November 1. These measures come as China, home to around 300 million migrant workers, grapples with employment and wage pressures against the backdrop of a deepening property crisis, mounting local government debt, and waning economic confidence.
Trial in Hong Kong
Hong Kong’s biggest national security trial concluded after 45 opposition figures were jailed following their conviction on charges of subversion. The activists, from an original group of 47, were found guilty of “conspiracy to commit subversion” under a sweeping national security law for their roles in an unauthorised “primary” election four years ago which it was argued was part of efforts to ultimately overthrow the government.
Testing times for PM Ishiba
After assuming office on October 1, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba went back on a number of promises made during the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election and set up a hastily arranged snap poll that ended disastrously for the party.
Adding to the controversy, Ishiba broke multiple commitments by convening an exceptionally short special Diet session. The sole purpose of this appeared to be to secure his re-election as PM, enabling him to attend high-profile international summits such as Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Lima and G20 summit in Rio.
This came at a significant cost to the party. LDP was forced to relinquish control of the chairs of eight key parliamentary committees, which were handed over to the opposition. Before his snap election, all eight positions were firmly under LDP control.
Japan’s eye on Five Eyes
Japan hosted a gathering of senior enlisted service members from the Five Eyes intelligence partnership this month. It was the first time a nonmember state played host, highlighting the growing cooperation between Tokyo and its Western allies amid concerns over a rapidly deteriorating international security environment. The meeting with the grouping – comprising the US, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand – was part of a broader conference in Tokyo of senior enlisted personnel from all units of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces.
US-Japan-Australia trilateral
More trilateral exercises, greater coordination and deeper military-industrial ties were some takeaways from the latest gathering of the Japanese, Australian and US defense chiefs, efforts that experts say aim to build collective deterrence and a potential allied crisis response as regional security turns increasingly fraught. One of the highlights of the three-way meeting in the northern Australian city of Darwin was the announcement that Japan’s Ground SelfDefense Force’s Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade will deploy to Australia regularly to join both local forces and a US Marine Rotational Force for annual amphibious training drills, starting with next year’s Talisman Sabre exercise.
North Korea in Ukraine war theatre
North Korean troops deployed to Russia were assessed to have been assigned to Moscow’s airborne brigade and marine corps on the ground, with some soldiers already in combat, South Korea’s spy agency told the country’s lawmakers. The National Intelligence Service (NIS) presented the assessment in a closed-door meeting of the parliamentary Intelligence Committee, according to People Power Party Rep. Lee Seong-kweun and Democratic Party Rep Park Sun-won. Around 11,000 troops were assessed to have been relocated to Kursk late October after completing local adjustment training in northeastern Russia, NIS told lawmakers.
Indonesia’s new president its foreign policy czar
“Collaboration is always better than confrontation.” These words carry significant weight, especially when spoken by Prabowo Subianto, president of Indonesia. President Prabowo repeated this statement on various occasions during state visits to meet world leaders over a month after becoming president. Prabowo visited China on November 8-10 to meet President Xi Jinping. He went on to Washington DC, November 11-13 where he meet outgoing President Joe Biden. Prabowo also attended the APEC Summit, G20 in Rio, and visted UK. Indonesia’s diplomatic approach is focus on maintaining sovereignty, freedom and national interests, establishing partnerships with various countries without following any particular power bloc.
US-Philippines military alliance
US military is supporting Philippine operations in the South China Sea via a special task force, a US embassy official said on November 21, an initiative Manila said involves intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. Task Force-Ayungin is named after the Philippine designation for the contested Second Thomas Shoal. Defence ties between Philippines and the US have strengthened rapidly in the past few years, frustrating Beijing, which has a huge presence and vast claims in South China Sea and sees Washington as an interfering power. The US says it has legitimate interests in ensuring peace and freedom of navigation in Asia’s most contested waters, through which more than US$3 trillion (S$4 trillion) of trade passes each year.
Trump & SE Asia
Strong manufacturing capabilities and cost advantages will keep Singapore and other Asean economies attractive investment destinations, but they still might take a hit from any policy upheaval in US President-elect Donald Trump’s four-year term.
Recommended Readings
Wary of ‘vicious’ events, China makes migrant worker arrears a priority
Ishiba aggravates his own political failures with diplomatic faux pas – The Japan Times
America’s Security Role in the South China Sea | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Thank you for taking the time to read our newsletter this month. Stay tuned for our next edition!
