ANANTA INSIGHTS
Geopolitics of High-tech
US President Donald Trump was inaugurated on January 20 2025
As nations vie for supremacy in critical and emerging technologies, understanding how the intersection of geopolitics and high-tech innovations shapes global dynamics becomes paramount. Advancements in areas from artificial intelligence to space exploration not only revolutionise industries but redefine global power and strategic alliances.
In this edition we analyse executive orders signed by the newly inaugurated US President Donald Trump, notable new high-tech initiatives announced in the Union Budget, the success and legacy of Biden administration’s iCET initiative, how a muted space race is unfolding, how Biden administration’s AI chip restrictions are having unintended consequences and how Meta is taking a U-turn on content regulation.
Executive Orders: Trump’s first week in office
In his first week back in the White House, Donald Trump signed a flurry of executive orders targeting artificial intelligence, digital financial technologies, and social media. The Trump administration likely seeks to signal an intent to dominate emerging high-tech sectors. Yet, while the scope of these initiatives is expansive, questions remain about their feasibility, ethical implications, and long-term impact.
Artificial Intelligence
The Trump administration has called for dismantling Biden-era AI safeguards and tasked its officials with crafting new policies within six months. The associated 23 January 2025 order‘s broad mandate to eliminate “ideological bias” lacks specific implementation details and could create regulatory uncertainty in the rapidly evolving AI sector.
The newly unveiled Stargate imitative, hinges on a partnership between OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank to develop AI infrastructure in Texas – which would largely mean data-centres. While the White House projects a $500 billion total investment, only $100 billion has been committed initially.
Science and Technology Council
The reconstituted 24-member President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) signals a significant shift in oversight, with former PayPal executive David Sacks assuming a dual role over AI and cryptocurrency policy. The appointment raises questions about potential conflicts of interest given Sacks’s extensive private sector investments in both sectors.
Digital Financial Technologies
In a move that could reshape US monetary policy, Trump’s ban on Central Bank Digital Currencies(CBDC)s development stands at odds with global trends, as major economies including China, India, Russia and the EU advance their own digital currency projects. The order promotes private stablecoins while directing Sacks’ advisory committee to create guidelines for managing seized cryptocurrency assets, though specifics remain unclear.
Social Media
Despite campaign promises of immediate action on TikTok, Trump’s 75-day extension for ByteDance to find a US buyer represents a notable policy reversal. The app briefly went offline January 19 following congressional restrictions but resumed operations despite remaining unavailable on major app stores.
Scanning the Union Budget: High/Deep tech Missions and Initiatives
While the government has included several high and deep tech sectors in the long list of initiatives and support programmes announced during the February 1 2025 budget speech by the Union Finance Minister.
Overarching Deep Tech Fund
The Government of India is mulling setting up an overarching deep tech fund, cantered around the nascent startup ecosystem in the country and focused on a plethora of novel deep tech ideas, applications and sectors.
Fellowships
The government will also directly sponsor nearly 10,000 fellowships over a five-year period which are in turn expected to boost the research and development ecosystem attached to the deep tech startup and innovation ecosystem. These fellowships are likely to first serve government backed educational institutions such as IITs, IISC and NITs – many of which already boast some measure of institutional focus on inculcating .
Another AI Centre of Excellence
The contention for developing and publishing better and more capable Large Language Models(LLM)s primarily between private entities belonging to the US and China has opened a new dimension to the gray zone conflict inherent to geopolitical contention.
Likely inspired by this global AI boom and the several second order effects associated across sectors and applications, the budget also makes provision for a new Centre of Excellence(CoE) focused on AI. It is important to note that in October 2024, three AI CoE have already been announced by the Union Minister of Education Dharmendra Pradhan.
These three previously announced AI CoEs were also announced with sector specific applications; the one focused on healthcare would fall under the purview of AIIMS and IIT Delhi, the one focused on sustainable cities under IIT Kanpur and the one focused on Agriculture under IIT Ropar.
National Geospatial Mission
The budget announcement also mentions a new National Geospatial Mission(NGM), which is different from the National Geospatial Programme(NGP). India has a national geospatial programme since at least 1982. It was initially setup as the Natural Resources Data Management System (NRDMS) and with the evolution of both technology and policy evolved into its current form. Despite the evolution the NGP continues to serve the same basic purpose of collating all national resources related to earth observation and geospatial intelligence applicable to nearly all sectors. Nevertheless, the new NGM is purportedly being setup as an umbrella entity to coordinate setting up new infrastructure and data streams to improve the accuracy of available national geospatial resources. While the same purpose could have been fulfilled with just a new funding injection – and it might still be the case – but for reasons of branding and uniformity – a mission had to be a list item.
An iCET retrospective: Biden’s India Tech Alliance Leaves Lasting Legacy in Strategic Partnership
The US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) emerged as one of the most significant achievements of the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy, fundamentally transforming bilateral relations between the world’s two largest democracies. The initiative, launched in May 2022, evolved from an ambitious diplomatic framework into a concrete platform that reshaped strategic technology partnerships across multiple sectors.
Over its three-year implementation, iCET drove unprecedented collaboration in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, semiconductors, and space technology. The initiative marked a decisive break from decades of cautious engagement, overcoming historical barriers that had limited technology cooperation between the two nations.
The initiative’s most tangible success came in semiconductor manufacturing. Micron Technology’s investment in semiconductor packaging facilities in India represented the first major global partnership under India’s Semiconductor Mission. This development established India as an emerging hub in the global chip ecosystem, creating a viable alternative to China-dominated supply chains.
Space sector cooperation achieved remarkable progress during the Biden years. The administration’s updates to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) export policies removed long-standing barriers to commercial space partnerships. These changes will now enable joint many more India-US ventures in lunar exploration, human spaceflight, and satellite technology, setting the stage for deeper collaboration in space exploration.
However the most significant policy breakthrough came in civil nuclear cooperation. The Biden administration’s decision to delist Indian nuclear entities dismantled decades-old restrictions on collaboration in nuclear technology. The move is likely to accelerate India’s clean energy transition while creating new opportunities for US companies in India’s expanding nuclear sector as well as enable India to advance its Rare Earths sector.
Defence technology cooperation between India and the US too reached unprecedented levels under iCET. The agreement for co-production of GE Aerospace’s F414 jet engines in India marked a revolutionary shift in defence industrial cooperation, moving beyond traditional buyer-seller relationships.
Private sector engagement transformed dramatically during this period. Similarly, cooperation in artificial intelligence and quantum computing intensified, with both countries developing robust frameworks for joint investment and technology protection.
The initiative faced its share of challenges throughout the Biden years. Complex issues around technology transfer restrictions, intellectual property rights, and divergent regulatory frameworks required constant navigation and resolution. The success of iCET has largely depended on both countries’s ability to align their strategic technology related intellectual property protection toolkits while also maintaining open innovation ecosystems. According to a report in Hindustan Times quoting the then US deputy secretary of state Kurt Campbell, Washington did discuss their concerns with New Delhi, around India’s close military-technical relationship with Russia in a “full and frank” manner.
Competition with China’s technological advancement and influence in the Indo-Pacific region remained a persistent challenge. Both Washington and New Delhi are consistently working to establish alternative supply chains and technology standards which gives them the ability to present a competitive joint front against China.
The Biden administration’s investment in iCET delivered significant strategic returns. The partnership evolved beyond traditional defence cooperation to encompass critical future dual-use technologies, which is particularly important given the global race for technological supremacy and the increasing importance of trusted supply chains.
4. A muted space race: 21st century competition on the final frontier
A muted yet fiercely strategic space race is unfolding in the 21st century. Unlike the Cold War era, this new rivalry isn’t characterised by flashy moon landings or iconic firsts. Instead, it is a calculated battle for dominance in space exploration, resource extraction, and military positioning. The US and China are leading the charge, while India is making slow but steady progress and Russia is in decline. The competition is not only about prestige but also about securing strategic advantages in satellite technology, human spaceflight, and lunar resources that may shape the geopolitics of the next century.
From Pioneer to Straggler: Russia’s Decline in Space
Russia, once the torchbearer of space exploration, has witnessed a dramatic fall from its lofty perch. The Soviet Union launched Sputnik, the first artificial satellite and sent Yuri Gagarin into orbit, securing its place in history. Today, however, Russia’s space programme faces stagnation, marred by budget cuts, technical failures, and growing international isolation due to its geopolitical actions.
Although Roscosmos, Russia’s space agency, remains operational, its capabilities pale in comparison to the United States’ NASA or China’s CNSA (China National Space Administration). Russia’s collaboration with China on the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) signals its pivot eastward, but this partnership largely underscores Moscow’s diminished capacity to lead independent projects. Furthermore, the impact of Western sanctions has not only diminished the ability of Roscosmos to manufacture hardware for its spacecraft, it has also turned away Western private sector business opportunities – in effect tanking any chance for it to turn around a profit.
US vs. China: Competing Visions for the Moon and Beyond
In stark contrast, the US and China are locked in a rivalry reminiscent of their broader geopolitical contest. The Artemis Programme, spearheaded by NASA, aims to return humans to the Moon and establish a sustainable lunar presence. Central to this effort are the Artemis Accords, a framework of principles governing responsible exploration. As of now, 29 nations, including India, have signed the Accords, reflecting Washington’s ability to build a coalition of like-minded allies.
Meanwhile, China’s ambitions are equally audacious. Alongside its growing satellite constellations, China plans a Moon landing by 2030. Its collaboration with Russia on the ILRS highlights a shared intent to counterbalance US dominance. However, Beijing’s efforts remain constrained by its exclusion from international cooperative frameworks like the International Space Station (ISS). Instead, China has developed its own Tiangong space station, cementing its status as a spacefaring superpower.
Dominating Earth Orbit: A New Frontier for Competition
Low-Earth orbit (LEO) has become a critical theatre of competition. With the rapid proliferation of satellite constellations, countries and private entities alike are vying for supremacy in the finite near space domain. SpaceX’s Starlink constellation, now numbering over 6,900 satellites, exemplifies how the US has the first mover advantage and is likely to persist as the hegemonic power extending its influence as geopolitical rivalries expand into near space.
China’s response has been the Guowang constellation, designed to rival Starlink and support its Belt and Road Initiative through global connectivity – however it has only launched the first set of these satellites in December 2024, while Space X launched its first batch of operational satellites in May 2019.
India’s Calculated Choices: Artemis over ILRS
India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords rather than the ILRS reflects its strategic calculus. By aligning with the US-led initiative, India gains access to cutting-edge technologies and collaborative opportunities with Western spacefaring nations. The decision is also emblematic of India’s broader pivot towards the West in areas such as defence and trade.
India’s partnership with the US extends beyond agreements and into missions. The US is actively assisting India in sending an astronaut to the ISS onboard Axiom space’s Ax-4 mission, providing a significant opportunity for the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) to gain vital operational experience which will help ISRO carry out the launch of its own first human space flight mission Gaganyaan in the near future.
Implications for the Future
The current trajectory of the space race indicates a future dominated by two poles: the US-led coalition and China’s growing axis of influence. The Artemis Accords, with their emphasis on open data sharing and peaceful exploration, aim to establish a rules-based order. In contrast, China’s approach, rooted in state-led projects and partnerships with Western adversary countries like Russia, offers an alternative model. The muted space race may not have the grandeur of the Apollo-Soyuz era, but its stakes are no less significant.
5. Meta’s Misinformation U-Turn: A Shift or a Strategic Recalibration?
According to a January 2025 press release Meta is rethinking its approach to content regulation, marking a significant pivot in how it moderates misinformation and political discourse. The company is ending its third-party fact-checking programme in the US and adopting a crowdsourced model similar to Community Notes on X. The shift signals a broader move towards a more hands-off approach, focusing enforcement on illegal content and allowing greater leeway for controversial but mainstream discussions.
The changes come amid growing scrutiny of Meta’s role in shaping online narratives. The company has been accused of both over-censorship and negligence, drawing criticism from policymakers across the political spectrum and around the world. By reducing its direct role in moderating content, Meta risks intensifying global regulatory pressure, particularly in regions where misinformation and political manipulation are flashpoints for instability.
The new system will first be deployed in the US before potential global expansion. But in key markets such as the European Union and India—where Meta has faced regulatory scrutiny over its role in election misinformation—governments may view the move as a retreat from accountability, intensifying calls for stricter oversight.
Beyond misinformation, Meta is also rolling back restrictions on politically sensitive topics. The company admits that its automated moderation systems have over-enforced content policies, removing millions of posts in December 2024 alone—some of which may not have violated any rules.
While much remains to be seen, it is clear that Meta’s policy shift extends far beyond Silicon Valley. Whether governments respond with regulatory crackdowns or allow Meta’s experiment to play out will define the next phase of the perpetual competition between nations in the era of grey zone conflicts.
Check these out:
Artificial Intelligence in the Biological Sciences: Uses, Safety, Security, and Oversight – CRS
Defense Primer: U.S. Policy on Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems – CRS
Alternative power sources for space exploration: 55Fe X-ray-voltaic batteries – Applied Energy
The Outlook for Nuclear Energy and Small Modular Reactors – The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Thank you for reading Ananta’s Geopolitics of High-tech newsletter. Stay tuned for our next edition.
