Geopolitics of High-tech

ANANTA INSIGHTS

Geopolitics of High-tech

 Quad leaders at the summit in Delaware

As nations vie for supremacy in critical and emerging technologies, understanding the geopolitical implications becomes paramount. From artificial intelligence to space exploration, these advancements not only revolutionise industries but also redefine international power dynamics and strategic alliances. In an era where technological advancements shape global dynamics, this newsletter delves into the intricate intersections of geopolitics and high-tech innovations.

In this edition we analyse the Delaware Quad summit, India’s first government funded generative AI model, the case for restarting former disaster sites for powering high-tech industries, the international impact of AI companies switching to a for-profit model, China’s progress on domestic chipmaking tools and some emerging use cases for wearable smart tech for military applications.

1. Quad summit highlights high-tech cooperation

The 21 September 2024 in-person Quad leaders summit continued to bring forth significant focus on high-tech areas. The fact sheet and joint statement released after the summit covers strengthening technological innovation, infrastructure, and digital resilience across the Indo-Pacific.

 

Semiconductor Supply Chain Resilience

Signing of a Memorandum of Cooperation to address potential disruptions and secure the supply of critical technologies.

Open Radio Access Networks (Open RAN) and 5G

Expanding support for Open RAN deployment to enhance secure and resilient telecommunications infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Promoting advanced research in AI, particularly in agriculture through the AI-ENGAGE initiative and international cooperation in AI governance to ensure safe, secure, and trustworthy AI systems.

Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI)

Announcing principles for the development and deployment of DPI, emphasising inclusivity, sustainability, and security in digital advancements.

Undersea Cable Connectivity

Committing $140 million towards efforts in expanding undersea cable networks and strengthening their resilience.

 

2. BharatGen can also further India’s foreign policy and civilisational goals

The BharatGen initiative – a government funded AI model focused on service delivery, represents a critical step positioning India as a global player in the rapidly evolving domain of Generative AI. This initiative, spearheaded by IIT Bombay and supported by India’s National Mission on Interdisciplinary Cyber-Physical Systems (NM-ICPS), ties into several key geopolitical themes:

Tech Sovereignty and Data Sovereignty

Unlike global AI models trained on datasets that may not fully represent India’s linguistic diversity, BharatGen’s focus on Indian-centric datasets strengthens the country’s ability to preserve and promote its unique socio-cultural identity. This strategy is in direct response to growing concerns over reliance on foreign tech, particularly as AI dominance increasingly becomes a tool of geopolitical leverage.

As a Tool for Soft Power

BharatGen’s unique focus on cultural preservation through AI models tailored for Indian languages and traditions provides India with an opportunity to enhance its soft power on the global stage. AI, as a tool for cultural promotion, allows India to extend its digital influence by offering models that not only support India’s diverse languages but also promote them globally. As BharatGen evolves, India could potentially partner with like-minded democracies or multilateral frameworks like the Quad, to export its AI innovations while ensuring ethical and inclusive AI governance frameworks.

3. High-tech driven power demand could be fulfilled by shutdown nuclear reactors

The massive surge in demand for energy, particularly from AI and tech industries, has prompted companies to look toward reliable and scalable sources of power. Nuclear energy, which is virtually carbon-free, is being reconsidered as a viable solution despite its controversial history. The reopening of an unaffected unit at a former disaster site like Three Mile Island in the US, particularly to meet the demands of AI-driven data centres, represents a complex intersection of economic, environmental, and technological forces. 

In the case of Three Mile Island, Microsoft’s involvement in reviving Unit 1 to power its data centres shows how tech companies are actively seeking sustainable and uninterrupted power sources. While Unit 2 at Three Mile Island, the site of the infamous partial meltdown in 1979, remains offline, the decision to restart Unit 1 underscores a cautious but calculated approach to managing nuclear energy’s risks and benefits. 

Similarly Japan has been gradually reopening some of its nuclear power plants in recent years, following the Fukushima disaster in 2011, which led to the shutdown of all nuclear reactors in the country. Since then, Japan has faced significant energy challenges, relying heavily on imported fossil fuels. To reduce carbon emissions and improve energy security, Japan has restarted a number of nuclear reactors under strict safety regulations and inspections. According to the US Energy Information Administration, at the end of 2023, 12 reactors have been brought back online, including at the Sendai, Ikata, and Ohi nuclear plants. These plants have undergone rigorous upgrades to meet new safety standards, particularly concerning earthquake and tsunami protections. The government has continued to push for nuclear restarts as part of its long-term energy strategy, aiming for nuclear power to play a key role in achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. However, public opposition and local resistance remain significant, especially in areas near the plants. Given the trend in Japan and the US, it is likely that many EU countries like Germany and France may shift course and restart or rebuild some of their nuclear power generation capacity in the future.

4. How is China progressing on the path to self reliance in chipmaking tools
China is making progress, but several key factors suggest it will struggle to achieve self-reliance in advanced chipmaking tools, particularly in lithography, in the near future. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has publicised progress in developing domestic lithography scanners. The two notable machines feature:

  • KrF light source with 248nm wavelength: Capable of a 110nm resolution on 12-inch wafers.

  • ArF light source with 193nm wavelength: Capable of a 65nm resolution.

While these scanners indicate progress, they are still several generations behind the cutting-edge lithography machines, especially those produced by Dutch firm ASML and South Korea’s Samsung.

China’s lithography tools are still limited to relatively mature nodes—110nm and 65nm—far behind the cutting-edge technologies used by top global players, which are producing at the 7nm and 5nm nodes, and developing 3nm and below. Advanced chips require extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, which China currently lacks.

Overlay Accuracy Limitation:
China’s ArF scanner has an overlay accuracy of 8nm, which limits its ability to achieve smaller feature sizes, as precise layer alignment is essential for advanced chip fabrication. By comparison, ASML’s machines achieve an overlay accuracy of below 1.6nm, allowing for much smaller nodes (10nm and below).

Dependency on Patterning Techniques:
Advanced nodes (below 65nm) often require multiple patterning techniques like double or quadruple patterning. The 8nm overlay accuracy in China’s machines may not support these advanced processes, further limiting their applicability for cutting-edge chip production.

Even with advanced lithography tools, the ability to produce leading-edge chips is highly dependent on the technical expertise of foundries. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), for instance, can produce 7nm chips with the same tools that China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) uses to make 16nm chips. This reflects the significant gap in technical expertise and production capabilities.

5. How OpenAI’s shift to for-profit model may divide the global tech order
The potential transition of AI companies like OpenAI to a for-profit model may mark a critical juncture in the intersection of technology and international relations. As AI becomes central to geopolitical strategies, these companies hold increasing influence over global power dynamics. OpenAI’s shift signals that even supposedly research focused AI development must contend with market pressures, pushing them to compete on the global stage where economic interests often overshadow purely scientific goals.

The for-profit pivot aligns AI companies more closely with national interests, as they compete with state-backed AI initiatives like China’s Baidu, Russia’s Sberbank AI or India’s BharatGen. The competitive nature of profit-driven research accelerates AI innovation but also risks deepening geopolitical divides, as nations seek to dominate AI capabilities for military, economic, and cyber-intelligence advantages.

Furthermore, as commercial AI companies become powerful actors, international institutions may face growing pressure to regulate the development and deployment of AI technologies. This shift could prompt global AI governance frameworks, where AI companies influence regulatory debates, potentially leading to policy decisions that reflect corporate rather than purely international priorities.

A for-profit model may further widen the AI development gap between wealthier and poorer nations. While major powers may benefit from enhanced AI capabilities, countries with less economic clout might find themselves reliant on foreign AI infrastructure, deepening global inequalities in technological advancement and economic security.

6. Brainstorming some emerging use cases for wearable smart tech for military applications

  • Identification of Friend or Foe (IFF) for infantry
    Augmented Reality headsets or smart visors equipped with IFF capabilities help infantrymen distinguish between allies and adversaries in real-time by displaying tags or markers in their visual field. These wearables may work by interfacing with larger battlefield management systems, syncing with biometric data or RFID tags embedded in soldiers’ uniforms.

  • Rescue, Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR)
    Wearable tech could be particularly useful in rescue and HADR missions where time is of the essence. Smart wearables could enable personnel to locate survivors in battlefields and disaster zones through heat signatures and other biomarker scanning.

  • Neurofeedback devices and brainwave-monitoring
    Wearable neurofeedback devices could monitor an operative’s cognitive states and provide biofeedback that could help in stress management and mental well-being. Some headsets integrated into protective headgear could detect brainwave patterns associated with fatigue or stress and provide calming stimuli or reminders to rest.

7. West worries about Russia circumventing high-tech export controls via trade with India
According to a 11 October Bloomberg report, India has emerged as the second-largest supplier of Western export controlled “critical technologies” and components to Russia. 
Bloomberg asserts that Indian exports to Russia of microchips, circuits, and machine tools got to over $60 million in April and May 2024, and reached $95 million by July. While China remains Russia’s top supplier, India’s role has purportedly grown significantly, accounting for nearly 20% of the sensitive technology reaching Russia’s military-industrial complex.

report in the Financial Times(FT) from 4 September also details efforts by Russian state functionaries to obtain sensitive components through India, using intermediaries and concealed channels to bypass Western sanctions. In the report FT cites leaked correspondence of these Russian functionaries from 2022 which purportedly reveals Moscow’s plan to invest $1 billion in acquiring electronics and other goods that were previously sourced from countries that have cut it off following the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 

Check these out:
1. Better Monitoring and Better Spying: The Implications of Emerging Technology for Arms Control by Jane Vaynman – Texas National Security Review

2. Shape or Deter? Managing Cyber-Espionage Threats to National Security Interests by Lester Godefrey -CIA

3. AI and Espionage: Espionage in a Developing Age by Betselot Dejene – Grey Dynamics

4. AI for life: Trends in artificial intelligence for biotechnology by Andreas Holzinger et.al – New Biotechnology

5. Toward biotechnology in space: High-throughput instruments for in situ biological research beyond Earth by Fathi Karouia, Kianoosh Peyvan and Andrew Pohorille – Biotechnology Advances

6. AI and the Future of National Security – Podcast by NSA

7. Artificial Intelligence in the Battlefield: A Perspective from Israel by Dr. Tal Mimran and Gal Dahan – OpinioJuris


Thank you for taking the time to read Ananta’s Geopolitics of High-tech newsletter this month. Stay tuned for our next edition, where we will continue to explore the intersection of international relations and technology.

Ananta Centre

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