The current tensions and developments near the Ukrainian border have been a matter of great global concern. These tensions highlight the post-Cold War geopolitical flux which has not yielded to a settled world order. Against this backdrop the Ananta Centre held a digital conversation on “War clouds over Ukraine: What They Portend for Global Geopolitics” between Ambassador P S Raghavan, Former Indian Ambassador to Russia and Prof. C Raja Mohan, Senior Fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute and Visiting Research Professor, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore.
The conversation touched on the origins of the current tensions, the perspectives of the main stakeholders – the US, Russia and Europe, wider implications of the standoff on power dynamics and how this development impact India’s interests and global ambitions.
Despite the fact that both countries were working closely to address many security and geopolitical challenges through the strategic stability dialogue, weapons control, and discussions on ransomware intrusions, the current Russia-Ukraine impasse raises numerous questions, making it a staged drama. Russia’s collaboration with the US will open up a massive geo-political opportunity for both countries, allowing them to address the issue of China while also letting the US to play a more focused role in the Indo-Pacific and assist Russia in maintaining a secure European border.
The current scenario revolves entirely around the European Security Architecture. Still, the communication is between the United States and Russia, which creates a serious difficulty by not taking into account the rest of the (Stakeholders) European nations. The Minsk Agreement must also be addressed, as it has become a critical component of negotiations aimed at resolving the long-running conflict in eastern Ukraine. These are the critical challenges that must be addressed in the coming years. This crisis has provided opportunities to rethink Europe’s social, economic, security, and geopolitical order.
Europe’s equilibrium allows the US more time to focus on the Indo-Pacific. The Ukraine situation might serve as a distraction from the problem of China, allowing Beijing to ratchet up its threats towards Taiwan. China would prefer to see as much space as possible between the United States and Russia, since this will provide China more room to move. However, the United States will require a secure and predictable relationship with Europe to meet its Indo-Pacific goals.
Nonetheless, amidst the prevailing global tensions, India will have to maintain its delicate balancing act between the worlds’ leading nations. India will need to have a new agreement with Europe, Russia, and the United States that will benefit it. For that, there must be some sort of balance among the many parties participating in the Ukraine crisis, allowing us to focus more on China and Taiwan concerns.
Watch the full session here: https://anantacentre.in/videos/war-clouds-over-ukraine-what-they-portend-for-global-geopolitics